Election 2020

Why Biden's South Carolina Victory Increases the Odds of a Brokered Convention

Then Vice President Joe Biden speaks at a campaign event for Hillary Clinton on Sept. 1, 2016, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/David Dermer)

If you thought that Biden’s stunning victory in South Carolina on Saturday has thrust him into frontrunner status again, and will propel him to the nomination, you were wrong.

According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, the candidate that most benefited from Biden’s victory in the South Carolina primary was “No one.” In fact, Biden’s victory in the Palmetto State hurt both his and Sanders’s chances of acquiring a majority of delegates. FiveThirtyEight’s models now project a 60 percent chance of no candidate getting a majority.

(Screenshot of FiveThirtyEight.com)

It is also clear that Bloomberg, Warren, Buttigieg and the rest of the field don’t have a viable path to victory, and we should expect a bunch of dropouts after Super Tuesday, which will once again turn the Democratic primary into a horserace between Bernie Sanders and the long-presumed frontrunner for the nomination. Are we looking at a repeat of the 2016 Democratic primary? Bring out the popcorn, folks!


Matt Margolis is the author of Trumping Obama: How President Trump Saved Us From Barack Obama’s Legacy and the bestselling book The Worst President in History: The Legacy of Barack Obama. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattMargolis