Election 2020

WOAH: FiveThirtyEight Predicts 'No One' Will Win a Majority of Democrat Delegates

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at a rally at Town Hall in New York City on June 23, 2016. (Dennis Van Tine/STAR MAX/IPx via AP)

The last time there was a brokered convention was in 1952. Is the next one going to happen it 2020?

According to FiveThirtyEight, “No One” has a slightly better chance of winning more than half of pledged delegates than Bernie Sanders does. There’s a 2 in 5 chance (37 percent) that no candidate will receive a majority of delegates, and there’s a 1 in 3 chance (36 percent) that Bernie Sanders will.

(Screenshot of FiveThirtyEight.com)

This projection is sure to change over the coming weeks, but a few weeks ago the chances of a brokered convention were just 1 in 7 (15 percent).

With Joe Biden’s campaign looking glum, a brokered convention might be his best chance, assuming his supporters haven’t jumped ship to Mike Bloomberg or some other so-called moderate.

A brokered convention would be a lot of fun to watch but devastating for Democrats. The chances of Bernie Sanders coming out on top in a brokered convention seem slim to me—and if Bernie goes into the convention with the most delegates but doesn’t leave the convention as the nominee, Bernie supporters are going to be livid. Whoever the candidate is, if the Democrats have to wait until mid-July to know for sure who their nominee is going be, it puts their party at a significant disadvantage. In 2004, John Kerry secured enough delegates to be the presumptive nominee after Super Tuesday, months before the convention, giving the party time to coalesce behind him, and for him to pick a running mate before the convention. It would be better for the Democrats to have a presumptive nominee as soon as possible, and to not have one who will just increase division in the party in a crucial election year.

So, I’m rooting for “No One” to win the most delegates. It’ll be amusing to watch and doesn’t help them one bit.


Matt Margolis is the author of Trumping Obama: How President Trump Saved Us From Barack Obama’s Legacy and the bestselling book The Worst President in History: The Legacy of Barack Obama. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattMargolis