Decision Desk has declared Republican Mike Garcia the winner of Tuesday’s special election in California’s 25th House District.
#CA25 Special Election (100% Reporting)
Mike Garcia (R) 56.05% ✔️
Christy Smith (D) 43.95%@DecisionDeskHQ
Clinton Won The District By 7 Points In 2016, And Katie Hill (D) Won it by 9 points in 2018 https://t.co/PPA6BRprwo
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) May 13, 2020
The seat was in Democrat hands, vacated when rookie Rep. Katie Hill resigned last fall ahead of the House Ethics Committee’s investigation of her “throuple” affair with her legislative director.
Katie Hill won that seat in 2018 by 9 points. Garcia has flipped it from blue to red with a 13-point walloping of the Democrat. Quick math, that’s a 22-point swing toward the red in a year when President Trump is supposed to be so vulnerable. It’s a special election, with different dynamics from a regular election, but still a very significant result.
Does this look like he’s vulnerable at the moment?
Big Congressional win in California for Mike Garcia, taking back a seat from the Democrats. This is the first time in many years that a California Dem seat has flipped back to a Republican. Also, Tom Tiffany beat his Democrat rival BIG in Wisconsin. Two great Congressional WINS!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 13, 2020
He still may be, it’s a long way yet to November, but that’s not what the signs from last night say. In addition to the big win in CA-25, Republicans held a set in Wisconsin they were expected to hold, and Trump got another indication of high voter enthusiasm in Nebraska. He overperformed his 2016 primary win, by a lot.
Trump himself put up historic numbers in the Nebraska presidential primary. With less than half the vote in, Trump has already doubled his 2016 total in the state — leading GOP Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel to tout what she called surging “enthusiasm” for the president’s reelection.
The Democrats had a bad night. Trump had a good night. California is replacing Hill with Mike Garcia, whose resume as a combat veteran pilot is gaudy.