Trump Winning Ohio, One Yard Sign at a Time

Ohio State Route 42 connects Cleveland, in the northeast corner of the state, with Cincinnati, in the southwest corner. It generally follows Interstate 71, staying a few miles west of the interstate. And as I-71 connects Cleveland to Columbus and then to Cincinnati, Route 42 connects the smaller cities and towns along the way; including the birthplaces of several presidents. Basically, if Ohio is part of the nation’s heartland, then Route 42 passes through the heartland of the heartland.

Since Route 42 cuts across Greene County, I often take portions of it north to Cleveland as well as south to Cincinnati, and when I do, I see nothing but a predominance of Trump yard signs. The few pro-Clinton signs are often balanced by Hillary for Prison or other anti-Clinton signs. This is true even though the Warren County Democrat Party Headquarters, just north of Cincinnati, is located in a small strip mall on Route 42.

I’m not intentionally ignoring the influence of the three major Ohio metropolitan areas that may still side with the Democrats. But if the Democrats win in these areas, they better win big, because I’m seeing that Trump has a strong lock on the other 80 or so counties.

What might make all of this more than anecdotal is the September 25 report by CNN's Jeff Zeleny that Hillary Clinton hasn't been seen in Ohio since Labor Day, and currently has no plans to return there. A rather strange move given Ohio’s reputation as a crucial state to win.

A number of news pundits have picked up on Zeleny’s report. However, for the record, Clinton’s campaign denies giving up on Ohio and claims they plan to continue buying ads in the state. Clinton insiders say she has the electoral votes to win even without Ohio, but the elephant, so to speak, in the room is Zeleny’s “poll of polls” results that puts Trump five points ahead of Clinton in Ohio. Quite a change from June when reports from multiple news agencies had Clinton blowing over Trump in the state.

One possible factor that has helped galvanize Ohio’s Republican rank and file to actively support and campaign for Trump, besides their dislike for Clinton, is their growing dislike of Republican Governor John Kasich. Kasich’s problems with the rank and file started with his decision to accept Medicaid expansion under ObamaCare, often defending his decision on biblical grounds. For Kasich, it’s been downhill since, and his continual poor sportsmanship over his loss of the Republican nomination and his refusal to support Trump has only spurred more support for Trump.

Many area Republicans also strongly feel Kasich could have stepped in and helped Wright State University, also located in Greene County, when it backed out of hosting the first presidential debate citing financial and security concerns. Kasich was relatively silent about the whole affair, fueling the perception that his animosity toward Trump was the reason the state did not step in to save the debate.

But whether Kasich was involved or not in the debate affair, or whether he could have done anything about it, is immaterial since politics is often about perception not reality. But sometimes perception turns into reality, and the perception in Ohio is that Trump now has the ground game, leaving Clinton to throw Hail Mary passes.