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Anatomy of Victory: Why No One Is Getting Brat's Story Exactly Right Yet

Adding one plus one together, not a soul present at the Gutierrez event was not suspicious that the Cantor team had coordinated with Gutierrez to produce pure theater. A Brat loss served Gutierrez's interests, as Brat was clearly less of a partner on amnesty than Cantor, and Cantor knew that his amnesty history was killing him within his district.

So Brat showed up an hour ahead of the Gutierrez event -- knowing the cameras would already be there -- and got out the message that Cantor's mailers were dishonest, and that Cantor was in fact the friend of amnesty in this race.

This appearance by Brat, and the amateur-hour kabuki orchestrated by Cantor and Gutierrez, was the day the MSM first paid attention to Brat. This was the turning point. Brat loses if Gutierrez does not show, or if Brat does not show up to preempt him.

The AP, Politico, and others reported that evening that "Cantor Gets Hit on Amnesty From Both Sides".

Allen had hoped the headlines would read "Cantor targeted as chief opponent of immigration reform." The average low-information voter in the 7th District now had in one hand a bombastic mailer about Eric Cantor's bonafides; in the other, a laptop claiming that Cantor's opponent was clearly, undoubtedly campaigning to the right of Cantor on amnesty.

The MSM attention put the lie to Cantor's mailers. Allen had taken what he thought was a calculated risk by lying so brazenly to Cantor's constituents, assuming Brat would not have the money to combat the message. But Allen overstepped by coordinating a press event with Gutierrez.

The cameras were already there, Brat just had to show up to get his first national attention, for free. Without spending a penny, Brat convinced the 7th District that Cantor was a liar. Of course, it was true. And this event occurred between the Allen "34-points" boast, and the Daily Caller poll.

I'll write more on this topic later today -- it was a fascinating race, and I can't wait to get you all the details.