Today is a big day for tournaments on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The $200,000 FanDuel Monster is one of the biggest tournaments you’ll find this early in the year: it’s only $200 to enter, and will award $30,000 for 1st place.
And if you really want to go for it, DraftKings has the $200,000 Gold Glove, which is the biggest $1,000 entry tournament in the history of daily fantasy baseball. $40,000 will go to 1st place.
If the thought of risking $200 or $1,000 on baseball makes you a little queasy, both FanDuel and DraftKings have fantastic smaller buy-in tournaments as well, ranging from $2-$100 and awarding big money for 1st place.
Because today is such a big tournament day, my picks today will be focused more on predicting the underused plays and finding the good teams to stack. Keep that in mind while reading, and good luck!
(Stats via Fangraphs.com and Dailyfantasywinners.com)
Top Play
Carlos Gonzalez ($3,700 on FanDuel, $4,400 on DraftKings)
In Gonzalez’s last 10 games, he has not eclipsed 2 FanDuel points, has one extra base hit, and is batting under .200. But Gonzalez is by far my favorite play on both sites.
In baseball, there is a lot of variance in hitting, a fly ball out hit just a few extra feet can be a home run, and a line drive hit just slightly more to the right or left can become an extra base hit. Gonzalez clearly is experiencing that negative variance right now, his BABIP (batting average on balls hit in play) is only .205, down from a career number of .340, and this is a statistic that almost always normalizes through the course of the season. His HR/FB is also at 7.7%, down from a career number of 18.2%.
Furthermore, he’s displaying no warning signs to have us worried about a career decline. He’s still young (29 to be exact) and he’s making great contact (his SO% is actually down this year).
Gonzalez is a great hitter playing at home in Coors Field, and his price is simply way too low to pass up. He also has the benefit of a great matchup. Gonzalez loves hitting off-speed pitches and James Shields is a pitcher who throws a lot of change-ups and curveballs. And with Gonzalez in such a slump, he’ll likely be passed up by the masses, making him the perfect tournament play.
Contrarian FanDuel Stack
The Padres and Rockies are great teams to target tonight, both are playing at Coors in a game with an over/under of 10. But since most daily fantasy players will be targeting these guys, we want to find a team to stack who may be a little under the radar. That doesn’t mean totally ignore Rockies and Padres players in your tournament lineups. A few of those players should be peppered into every lineup, just that using 3-4 guys from the teams below could lead to a big payoff, especially if some of the bigger names struggle.
The Texas Rangers (@ARI, Pitcher Archie Bradley (R))
Bradley has had a fantastic start to the season, posting a 1.42 ERA in his 1st two games. So why are we targeting the Rangers facing this guy? Well, a couple of reasons.
First off, I always trust sportsbook money lines to evaluate games, and despite Bradley’s great start, sportsbooks have the Rangers projected to score 4.33 runs.
Second, Bradley is a wild pitcher, walking 4.26 batters per 9 innings this season. And with wild pitchers like Bradley, when things go wrong, they can go wrong in a hurry. Pitchers like Bradley can have massive blowup games, which is exactly what we’re looking for when we stack a team.
The Rangers are built perfectly to expose Bradley. Stolen base threats Leonys Martin and Elvis Andrus should be batting 1 and 2 in the order, and power hitters Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre, and Shin-Soo Choo will likely bat 3, 4, and 5. If Bradley has poor command early, Martin and Andrus should wreak havoc on the base paths and the middle of the order power hitters should get plenty of opportunities with runners in scoring position.
Favorite Stack
SS Andrus ($3,000)
3B Beltre ($3,400)
1B Fielder ($3,600)
OF Choo ($2,800)
DraftKings Stack
The Kansas City Royals (vs MIN, Pitcher Mike Pelfrey (R))
The Royals benefit a ton from DraftKings’ scoring system. Unlike FanDuel, where singles, doubles, triples, and HRs are worth 1, 2, 3, and 4 points respectively, singles on DraftKings are favorable. They are worth 3 points, while doubles are worth only 5 and homeruns are worth only 10. The Royals Park is a big field which allows a lot of singles but not a ton of home runs, which is perfectly fine for the Royals lineup full of singles hitters. And the matchup is fantastic. Mike Pelfrey is one of the worst pitchers in baseball so it’s not surprising to see sportsbooks projecting the Royals at around 4.5 runs. Expect a lot of hits up and down the order in this game.
DraftKings Algorithm has screwed up here a bit as well: despite scoring 14 fantasy points in his last 2 games, young outfielder Paulo Orlando only has a $2,000 salary. His expected points per $1,000 is off the charts.
Favorite Stack
SS Alcides Escobar ($4,100)
3B Mike Moustakas ($4,100)
1B Eric Hosmer ($4,400)
OF Alex Gordon ($4,300)
OF Paulo Orlando ($2,000)
Top Pitcher
Clayton Kershaw ($12,000 on FanDuel, $12,500 on DraftKings)
It may feel strange taking Kershaw here at such a high price on the road, but he is clearly the top play at pitcher tonight. He’s on the road, yes, but at a great pitchers park in San Francisco and he faces one of the weakest lineups in baseball. The Giants starting lineup will likely look something like this:
Nori Aoki
Matt Duffy
Angel Pagan
Buster Posey
Casey Mcgehee
Joaquin Arias
Brandon Crawford
Justin Maxwell
Aside from Posey, this lineup is absolutely barren and Kershaw should mow through them easily. Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and his price will certainly only go higher as the season goes on, take him while he’s still at a discount.
DraftKings Value Pitcher
Jeremy Guthrie ($5,500)
Guthrie has never been a strikeout pitcher, but he is an innings eater and will certainly get some easy strikeouts vs a free swinging, righty heavy Twins lineup. Guthrie will almost certainly go 7 innings tonight, and if the Twins struggle he has a great chance of significantly outperforming his ultra-low salary.
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