Will Moshe Soon Be Able to Marry Binyamin?

As Professor Arnon Soffer has pointed out, the population trend in Israel greatly favors the religious sector, just in terms of natural increase. If one also factors in the fact that there is a very strong religious outreach effort being made by various organizations in Israel targeted primarily at the “traditional” Jewish population whose members tend to vote for Likud, and also that the overwhelming majority of new immigrants to Israel from the West are religiously observant, the proportion of the Israeli population likely to subscribe to traditional Jewish values is going up year on year. Professor Soffer predicts that the religious segment will be an actual majority by 2030, and the majority of that majority will be the so-called “Chareidi” population who tend to support parties such as Shas and Yahadut haTorah.

Add one more factor, the fact that aliya or Jewish immigration to Israel is somewhat offset by yerida or emigration from Israel, and the vast majority of yordim, for a variety of reasons, tend to be among the more secularly oriented parts of the population. There is also no provision for absentee ballots in Israeli elections, unless a citizen is stationed abroad as part of some diplomatic mission (though efforts have been made in the past to provide such a capability, no such law has ever been able to pass the Knesset).

Proportional representation, the system under which Israelis vote for Knesset members, means that every vote for a given party counts, regardless of what district it is cast in. Knesset members do not represent districts, as in the United States or Great Britain; they are elected at large across the country, an eventuality which prevents any substantial segment of the population from being stifled through gerrymandering, as so often happens in the United States.

So, no -- it is highly unlikely that any time soon Moshe will “marry” Binyamin.