The Latest Wargaming Projections for November

RCP still lists Arkansas as a tossup, despite GOP Congressman Tom Cotton showing a consistent lead in every poll but Rasmussen. But if you had to chose, it doesn’t seem likely that Democrat Senator Mark Pryor will still be senator in January. I’m assuming of course he’ll still be a Democrat -- but who knows? I say that because the latest from lefty Public Policy Polling indicates that this is the year Arkansas completes its transformation into a red state:

PPP's newest Arkansas poll finds Republicans leading across the board in the state's key races for this year, led by Tom Cotton with a 43/38 advantage over Mark Pryor and Asa Hutchinson with a 44/38 lead over Mike Ross at the top of the ticket.

Cotton's lead is up slightly from 41/39 on our previous poll. Voters aren't in love with him- 40% see him favorably to 41% with an unfavorable opinion. But Pryor continues to have tough approval ratings, with 36% giving him good marks to 51% who disapprove. Both candidates are receiving 77% of the vote from within their own party but Cotton has a substantial advantage with independents, getting 53% of their vote to 20% for Pryor. [Emphasis added]

Each race is different of course, with its own voters with their own concerns. But if Cotton really is doing so well with independents, it might have something to do with the national numbers concerning the Democrats’ standard-bearer, Barack Obama. Brendan Bordelon has those numbers for you:

Barack Obama’s approval rating slid into dangerous territory this week, with the latest Reuters-Ipsos poll showing just 35 percent of Americans approve of the president’s job performance even as he leads the nation into a war against Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East.

Fifty-eight percent of Americans expressed disapproval of the White House’s current occupant -- 37 percent of them “strongly.” Just 17 percent strongly approved of Obama’s current performance. The poll is based on a five-day rolling average.

Public support for a politician can work a lot like nation’s reproductive rate -- once it drops below a certain figure, there’s no turning it back around. The GOP might not just be on the verge of winning control of the Senate, but of fatally wounding an already lame duck.