The Battle for America 2010: Election Day

CALIFORNIA

Key Races: Governor, U.S. Senate

Tim Daniel reporting:

One day before what may be the most historical midterm election in generations, both the U.S. Senate and governor races appeared to be bucking the national incumbent-booting/tea party trend.

The success of the two campaigns on Tuesday will hinge on enthusiastic Republican and independent voter turnout. However, fewer California independents and straying Democrats are narrowing the enthusiasm gap for Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina.

A Rasmussen October 29 poll shows the gubernatorial race tightening, with Jerry Brown at 49% and Meg Whitman at 45%. These results move the race from "leans Democrat" to the "tossup" column at Rasmussen. Meg Whitman's improvement is juxtaposed against last week's 48% - 42% Brown vs. Whitman numbers.

Real Clear Politics still has the race as "leans Dem," with a 6.6% weighted lead for Jerry Brown.

A Rasmussen October 28 poll shows Carly Fiorina at 46% and Barbara Boxer polling at 49%, a clear continuation of the tossup Rasmussen status of the race. Real Clear Politics also has the race as tossup and Boxer with a 5% weighted lead. Nate Silver thinks that a Fiorina win is highly unlikely. My humble prediction, in clear defiance of the speculators at Intrade, is that Carly Fiorina takes the race by a slim margin.

Republicans in California will always face a steep uphill challenge, but anything can happen.

According to Pollster.com, Proposition 8, the same-sex marriage ban proposition, polled a negative 5% before voters headed to the polls. It then passed by 5 + percentage points. It would not surprise me if support for Fiorina and Whitman is understated by California polling respondents due to a reluctance to publicly admit Republican support in such a liberal state.

Quicklinks:

Pay for Indian Abramoff-Casino Play, Boxer -- Barbara Boxer and her son Doug Boxer played a key role in a Jack Abramoff-esque scandal in the Bay Area. The Hill reported the details and then mysteriously scrubbed the story. Proof Positive writes about the scandal here.

Dear Teachers, Boxer Needs Students -- In case you missed it at PJM, Barbara Boxer's campaign was caught red-handed soliciting Los Angeles area schools, urging students to "volunteer" for the Boxer campaign, thereby breaking campaign law.

Bill Maher, Pass the Joint -- Proposition 19 looks to be failing even as national support for marijuana legalization reaches an all-time high. That didn't stop actor Zach Galifianakis from lighting up on Bill Maher's show on HBO in a show of support for Prop. 19. Also read Jack Dunphy's PJM piece on Proposition 19.

All aboard the Van Tran Train -- In case you missed it, I interviewed California CD-47's Van Tran for PJTV.

Jan Brewer, Please Stay -- The Arizona governor is taking 24 hours away from her campaign to attend oral arguments in a San Francisco courtroom, listening in on the Obama administration's challenge to SB 1070.

Jerry Brown to We the People, "Inadequate" -- At a November 1 campaign stop in San Diego, Jerry Brown said that he was willing to govern people "openly committed to their inadequate ideas."

CONNECTICUT

Key Race: U.S. Senate

Jane Genova reporting:

CT U.S. SENATE RACE ENDS ON SAME OLD TUNE

The media headlines tell it all: a rehash of all the same themes playing throughout this campaign.

Of course, one of those themes is GOP candidate’s Linda McMahon’s wealth. That’s ironic since Democratic candidate Richard Blumenthal also has wealth, thanks to his wife’s family money made in real estate. That includes being a part owner of the Empire State Building. Incidentally, both candidates live in upper middle class Greenwich.

The television ads continue with their negative attacks, only more of them. The only new emphasis is on Linda McMahon’s humanity. Two, including one in which her daughter speaks, focus on how the family had at one time lost it all financially so the candidate understands the plight of the state’s workers.

The robo calls from Linda McMahon continue to come around dinner time.

The rallies, such as the one led by President Barack Obama in Bridgeport, just underscore that this race is ending with a whimper, not a bang. Not of the bigs imported to stump for the two candidates dazzle us.

If there is a surprise it will be that McMahon wins. Like the other female candidate branded by her wealth -- Meg Whitman -- McMahon looks like the underdog right now.