Romney Campaign Memo: Ohio Race is 'Tight-As-A-Tick'

The state director of Mitt Romney's Ohio campaign argues in a memo today that the Buckeye State is within striking distance for their campaign. Scott Jennings, a Romney senior adviser as well as director of the campaign's operations in Ohio, makes the case just one day ahead of the start of early voting there.

Jennings writes:

First, Public Policy Polling, a Democrat firm, released an Ohio survey Sunday night showing Barack Obama with a four point lead over Mitt Romney. The survey revealed that by no means is the race in Ohio anything other than up for grabs, with PPP reporting: “It's a mistake to think based on recent polling in Ohio that the race there is over. Obama is not popular in the state…”

  • More people disapprove than approve of Obama in Ohio. 49% of respondents disapprove of the job Obama is doing, and only 48% approve. There are plenty enough people in Ohio who disapprove of Obama for Mitt Romney to persuade and win the state’s 18 electoral votes.
  • Undecided voters overwhelmingly disapprove of Obama. Among those still undecided on the election, just 13% approve and 65% disapprove of Obama. Mitt Romney has a huge pool of undecided voters to talk to in October who have already concluded that Obama has done a poor job in office.
  • This poll was a D+5 sample, closer to reality. As we’ve pointed out, many of the Ohio public polls show outrageous leads for Obama were caused by dramatic oversampling of Democrats. This survey is a bit more realistic. It’s amazing what happens when you stop oversampling Democrats – you find a race in Ohio that is tight-as-a-tick. As a reminder, in 2008 Democrats enjoyed a partisan turnout advantage of eight points (D+8). In 2004, Republicans had an advantage of five points (R+5). We believe this race will fall somewhere well inside those confines, even as some national media surveys give Democrats an advantage outside those bounds.

Second, Rasmussen’s national tracking poll on Sunday had an interesting tidbit: “Currently, 43% of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney. Forty-two percent (42%) are that certain they will vote for Obama. The remaining 15% are either uncommitted or open to changing their mind.” When you consider that so many of those undecided voters in Ohiohave a sour view of the President’s job in Ohio, you can reasonably conclude that Mitt Romney has a solid chance of convincing them the country would be better off going in a different direction.”On top of the Rasmussen tidbit, two new national polls find a very tight race. The Politico/GWU/Battleground poll shows a two point race among likely voters, as does the ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Jennings also argues that the Romney campaign is "crushing its ground game metrics." Jennings writes that the campaign will knock on its millionth door sometime this week, and will make its three millionth phone call since May. Jennings continues:

Last week, the Romney-Ryan Victory effort in Ohio knocked on 162,506 thousands doors. The week before it was 137,948, leaving the astonished Ohio Democrat Party Chairman exasperated in this Washington Post article. Sorry to ruin your Monday morning, Mr. Chairman. In fact, over 300-thousand Ohio doors were knocked in the last two weeks by thousands of Ohio Republican volunteers hungry for a change in leadership in the White House. These volunteers know that the Romney-Ryan road to victory in November runs through Ohio, and they are doing everything in their power to make that a reality.

Jennings says this week will feature high profile rallies and events with Romney and Paul Ryan, and "while the ground game capacity continues to expand in all 88 Ohio counties, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan will continue to make the case to all Americans about their plan to create 12 million jobs, cut the debt, drive us toward energy independence, and stand up to China’s cheating that costs our country jobs."