Polls Find Big Trouble Ahead for Democrats

Colorado has been taken over by Democrats over the past few election cycles. But left-leaning PPP's latest poll suggests that the Democrats are losing their grip on the state.

The recalls of two Democratic State Senators in September weren't an anomaly when it comes to how Colorado voters are feeling about the state legislature. Republicans lead the statewide generic legislative ballot by a 47/42 margin, including a 41/30 advantage with independents. Those numbers are perhaps also indicative of how much trouble Democrats would be in at the top of the ticket next year if the GOP candidate fields were a little bit stronger.

The same poll finds Hillary Clinton trailing Republicans Chris Christie and Rand Paul in 2016 matchups. The Democrats' strength in the state is social issues, specifically gay marriage and raising the minimum wage. They can be expected to focus on those and run away from Obamacare and gun control.

In Arkansas, a right-leaning pollster finds Republican Rep. Tom Cotton building up a lead on incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Pryor.

Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor trails his Republican challenger, Rep. Tom Cotton, by seven points among likely voters in Arkansas, 48 percent to 41 percent, according to a new poll from a conservative group that says his support of the health care reform law is costing him.

The survey, shared exclusively with POLITICO, was conducted Friday and Saturday for the Citizens United Political Victory Fund by Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway of the polling company, Inc./WomanTrend.

Cotton is ahead among independents by 21 points and among women by 4 points.

That race, according to this pollster, is trending away from Pryor at speed. Pryor's support for Obamacare in the increasingly red state has made him one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate.