Polling Theory: When Polling Is Useless
Think about our BBs. We only needed 40 red BBs out of a thousand to "refuse to be counted" to reverse out little "poll" completely. And here, we're seeing that by the time our pollsters have counted 1,000 BBs, 9,000 of them refuse to be counted.
What effect does this have on the polls? It’s hard to say: the one thing we don't know is what the uncounted people think. But the one thing we can be pretty certain of is that the polls, with these kinds of conditions, are nearly useless.