Not Enough Subsidized Signups and Obamcare Goes Over Cliff

He said that about 17 percent of people signed up for the marketplace plans have not yet paid their premiums. This would likely bring the reported enrollment figure down.

“If you see that 30 percent of those eligible for subsidies signed up, and 70 percent didn’t, that tells me you’ve got a problem with the customers that you’ve got to worry about,” Laszewski said.

He noted the low number of people buying insurance is particularly troublesome given that “Obamacare is a monopoly” and “there’s no other place to buy health insurance.”

“There’s only one place to get this product, and in addition, the government will pay a big portion of your cost,” Laszewski said. “So you have a product here that is a monopoly where somebody is paying a good share, if not all of the costs for you to buy, …and still 70 percent passed on buying it. There’s definitely a customer issue here.”

Laszewski said he does not expect the ACA to be repealed, but rather “to evolve.” He predicted the law will look entirely different 10 years from now, or even five years from today. But he does not expect any fixes until at least 2017, when the new president and Congress ultimately grow tired of the “Obamacare wars” and decide to move on with their own agendas.

“I think this thing just limps along for a variety of reasons. It limps along financially… and it limps along politically,” Laszewski said.

“It doesn’t really matter what happens in the elections in 2014, whether the Republicans capture the Senate or not. We’re not gonna have the environment or the votes for any kind of substantial change to the ACA. We’re probably not gonna have the political atmosphere for any substantial kind of change,” he added.