No, George W. Bush Will Not Be the Last GOP President
A few days ago Myra Adams wrote a piece at the PJ Tatler titled "Could George W. Bush Be the Last Republican President?" Citing a list of ten reasons, Adams claimed she was forced to "conclude that President George W. Bush and President Millard Fillmore might just have something in common." Fervently disagreeing with Ms. Adams, I would like to set her mind at ease with a much different reading of the facts.
For each bold-typed assertion made by Adams, I would like to offer my own response:
1. Rapidly changing demographic trends that favor the Democrat Party.
The deck of the article Adams linked to explicitly states that demographic trends do not necessarily favor the Democratic Party: "Millennials and minorities, who boosted Obama in 2008, are growing, while white working-class voters, Romney’s bread and butter, are declining. But those loyalties could shift in the coming years, analysts tell Eleanor Clift."
The body of the piece explains that demographics, may, in fact, shift to the Republicans’ favor. Clift writes:
Confronted with all this data favoring Democrats at a discussion sponsored by the Bipartisan Policy Center, Sean Trende, a senior elections analyst at Real Clear Politics, cautioned against expecting current trends to last far into the future. ... "The long-term trend is slightly toward Republicans," Trende said. He noted that last year, there was net migration back to Mexico, a trend recently confirmed by a Pew Research Center survey that found immigration from Mexico “has come to a standstill."
Moreover, the demographics debate, which claims that one group’s expansion will help or hurt Republicans, is founded solely on stereotypes and tends to be proffered by paternalist liberals (not that Myra is one of these people) who treat white people as if they are the only group made up of individuals. Everyone else -- according to this idea -- votes solely based on skin color, religion, etc. Conservatives do not need to fall for this trap: free markets, individualism, and economic empowerment generated from creating consumer choice in education, medicine, and other aspects of life work for the benefit of everyone. Conservative ideas -- or at least classical liberal ones -- have lasted for centuries. Liberalism, in its modern incarnation, has not.
2. An education system controlled by liberals that churns out young liberals.
Liberals have controlled the U.S. education system for decades. Since the founding of the Department of Education, only one Democrat has received a majority of the popular vote in a presidential election: Barack Obama. George Bush lost the youth vote in 2004, but he more or less tied Kerry among those aged 25-29. Furthermore, enrollment in public schools is trending down as the charter school movement has picked up steam.
3. A population with an ever-increasing dependence on government in the form of entitlements and subsidies.
You cannot outrun math. The current model is going to fail and everyone knows it. Steve Laffey, the former mayor of Cranston, RI, who saved the city from default, recently released the best movie no one has seen -- yet. In Fixing America, he travels the country, showing how engaged and ready the nation's citizens are to solve its problems. The Tea Party formed precisely out of this re-awakening.
4. A mainstream media that is overwhelmingly comprised of journalists who subtly and not so subtly spin the news in support of Democrats and liberal causes.