Wednesday's HOT MIC

Wednesday's HOT MIC

As I was saying...

Mounting wave of GOP retirements signals trouble for Trump.

This is coming from Andrew Malcolm, not not some reflexive NeverTrumper or any of the Democrats-with-a-byline at the major publications. So read up and pay attention.

So far, a record 31 Republicans are quitting the House. That’s 13 percent of the entire caucus — and it’s only January. Perhaps they sense a Democrat wave in November. Some are term-limited as committee chairs. Some simply tired of the hassle, the bitter partisan environment and perhaps this president.

The last time so many exits occurred was 1994, President Clinton’s first midterm, when 28 Democrats left, followed by the wave election of Newt Gingrich’s Republican Revolution.

The reasons for the latest exodus are varied and revealing, from burnout and the likelihood of defeat to ambition for higher office.

More importantly, this burst of individual departures taken together demolishes most political expectations for next November’s midterm elections. Voters in modern times have preferred divided D.C. government, the White House held by one party, and at least one congressional chamber held by the other.

The Senate is probably safe, so Trump's judicial nominations should continue sailing through even past November.

But even that's a small comfort at best. In 2015, 2016, pundits were looking at the Democrats' terrible 2018 Senate battlefield, and wondering if the GOP might be able to pick up enough seats for a filibuster-proof majority.

Nobody, and I mean nobody, is still talking about that possibility, even though the map hasn't changed one bit.