LLLLLLetttt's Get Ready to Rumble!
That's all, folks: I'm calling it a night. Big wins for The Donald, and almost as big for Hillary. It seems much more likely that Clinton clinches her nomination, however.
The #StopTrump forces have two big tests, and if they lose both, it's game over. Ted Cruz must win Indiana, and Donald Trump must lose California -- those are the two big delegate swing states remaining. Trump leads in both currently, so Cruz has his work cut out for him. His ground game is strong, but will that be enough? Especially following a sweep like this, it will be tough.
As for Trump's declaration that he's the "presumptive nominee," he's wrong, but not entirely off base. He is the only candidate who can win outright. That makes him the man to beat, and that's going to be tough, even if the convention is contested. Our own Roger Simon predicts that the convention will not be contested. After tonight, it seems he very well might be right.
Cruz, Kasich, and even Sanders for that matter, are not giving up. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs a miracle. On the Republican side, Cruz needs Indiana and California -- and even then it's just a race at the convention. The largest amount of voters will have chosen Trump (we'll see if it's a majority), and even if the delegates collectively decide he is a horrible candidate to represent their policies and positions, it will be a bit awkward to explain that to Trump loyalists, especially when they're threatening to kill them. Who said politics wasn't personal...or scary?
And that's all folks. It's a sweep, even on the congressional district level.
And wow: I'm no Hillary fan, but that is COLD.
Trump is still not winning late-deciders, but he's doing better among them. From Nate Silver:
Earlier in the campaign, Trump had a tendency to perform poorly among late-deciding voters. It didn’t always cost him states because he had a lot of his vote locked in early on, but it led to him underperforming his polls fairly often.
So what about tonight? According to exit polls, Trump won 37 percent of late-deciding voters in Maryland, 39 percent in Connecticut, and 41 percent in Pennsylvania. That’s good, although well below Trump’s statewide margins. In fact, Kasich narrowly led among late-deciders in Connecticut and Maryland.
The thing is, though, that there weren’t very many late deciders. Only 21 percent of Republicans decided on their vote in the last week in Pennsylvania, 20 percent in Connecticut, and 27 percent in Maryland.
Clinton is 4 for 5, winning Connecticut after losing Rhode Island.
The Democratic establishment wins tonight, on the GOP side, not so much.
Big night for Democratic establishment with McGinty and Van Hollen. Quite the contrast with the GOP. https://t.co/QhzwZVcD0G
— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) April 27, 2016
This reminds me of something from Game of Thrones: "Any man who must say 'I am the king' is no true king."
"I'm like a very smart person"— Rich Lowry (@RichLowry) April 27, 2016
And this is a very good question.
How would the results tonight been materially different if Cruz had cut a deal w/ Kasich weeks ago and ceded him the NE?— Rich Lowry (@RichLowry) April 27, 2016
This is just a reminder of how Clinton campaigned in the Northeast -- as reported by the Onion.
Clinton Takes Campaign Staff To Little Hole-In-The-Wall Financial Institution Not Many People Know About https://t.co/CERVIKjuR6— Onion Politics (@OnionPolitics) April 19, 2016
And here's Trump trying to be presidential.
Donald Trump is really defining himself tonight:— Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) April 27, 2016
"I am me."
"I'm a person that loves people."
“I’m like a very smart person.”
The Donald jumps the gun a bit, here.
BREAKING: Trump declares himself GOP's 'presumptive nominee,' even though he is short of required delegates.— The Associated Press (@AP) April 27, 2016
And look at Chris Christie's face!
This is why the #NeverTrump movement still has hope.
Well, 2day is a disappointment, but not a surprise. Back 2 the western states where Cruz will gain more delegates and win a contested conv👍🏻— Tracy (@LilSoCalGal) April 27, 2016
Until Trump breaks 1,237, this is still a race.
Was Trump's victory tonight a result of Republicans giving up in the effort to stop him? From FiveThirtyEight's Dave Wasserman:
Of the five states reporting results tonight, Trump’s smallest margin so far is 31 percentage points (in Maryland, where he leads Kasich 54 percent to 23 percent). Granted, these are low-turnout GOP primaries in very Democratic states that are demographically favorable to Trump. But by exceeding expectations in places like Maryland’s 8th District, Trump raises the question of whether we’re beginning to see a “rally around the frontrunner” effect on the GOP side that we simply aren’t seeing in the Democratic race.
Trump states the obvious in his speech.
Trump: Marco Rubio has more delegates than Kasich…— Charlie Spiering (@charliespiering) April 27, 2016
It's still theoretically possible for Cruz to win outright, but that won't happen. Even Trump needs over half of those remaining.
This race isn't over yet.