Liveblogging the Wisconsin Primary

Liveblogging the Wisconsin Primary

12:04 a.m.

I am calling it a night. Ted Cruz won big tonight, taking nearly half the vote and winning across different demographic groups. This is the last primary until April 19, so Cruz has the momentum for two more weeks. That's the good news for him.

The good news for Trump is that, even if Cruz gets lucky and takes 39 delegates from Wisconsin, that's still only 39, while Trump leads by over 200. Cruz needs a few more Wisconsins in order to win the nomination before the convention, and that seems very unlikely.

The bad news for The Donald, however, is that after tonight, it is much more likely the GOP will have an open primary, where Cruz and Trump enter the ring with substantial minorities, but not the majority of delegates, which is required for a win. On the convention floor, Cruz will likely have the upper hand, because he has been working to elect his delegates at the state level (see North Dakota). Ironically, Trump needs the same high percentage of remaining delegates (54 percent) that Bernie Sanders needs to win his nomination. Tonight's results make Trump the underdog and an open convention the frontrunner.

This is bad, but not nearly as bad as the image Trump gave off in his whiny campaign statement following the Wisconsin loss. There, The Donald called Cruz an establishment "Trojan horse," because some party elites are backing the Texas senator.

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders won, but the delegate allocation will end up giving him only a few more delegates than Hillary Clinton from the state. Darn those party rules!