Liveblogging the New York Presidential Primary
Very important point from Nate Silver:
Because we and everyone else get so laser-focused on the percentages, raw vote counts sometimes get forgotten about. But so far, there have been 1.2 million votes recorded from Democratic voters in New York, as compared with around 450,000 for Republicans. That gap may close some because New York City is over-reported relative to the rest of New York State. Still, while Trump is popular among Republicans in New York, he’s not that popular in the state overall, with Clinton having more than twice as many votes so far.
Numbers on GOP, 66 percent reporting:
Trump -- 59.9 percent (308,803 votes); Kasich -- 25.2 percent (129,871 votes); Cruz -- 15.0 percent (77,242 votes).
Dems, 67 percent reporting:
Clinton -- 58.4 percent (750,636 votes)
Sanders -- 41.6 percent (534,382 votes)
Yes, Sanders has gotten just a bit less than TWICE Trump's votes. The GOP primary has 515,916 votes, while the Democratic Party has more than twice that, at 1,285,018. This is not all that surprising, given the state's liberal track record, but it puts Trump's win in perspective.
It's been a good night for Trump, as I predicted. He won his home state, scoring his first majority of the vote in the primary race so far. This will give him 91 delegates, most likely, but it will not end the fight. When the Donald declared, "Senator Cruz is just about mathematically eliminated," he was engaging in hyperbole.
No, the race is not over. In fact, Cruz knew he would lose tonight, so he wasn't even in New York. Cruz watched the primary results from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, where he has been wooing delegates. In fact, NBC predicted that the Texas senator would score half of Pennsylvania's delegates, even if he comes in a distant third in that primary next Tuesday. Cruz knows what he's doing, and while he is not the favorite, he may emerge in an open convention.
Trump likely has the momentum, not just tonight, but this coming week as well. The Northeastern states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote next Tuesday, and Trump will likely be the favorite in nearly all of those contests. The real question is how many delegates can Cruz and Kasich take from the Donald to keep him as far below the 1,237 number as possible. If Cruz holds Trump down, he may have a real shot in an open convention. It is not entirely numerically impossible for Ted to win outright, but he would need almost every single delegate remaining -- that's not happening.
After tonight, it's Trump or an open convention. But then again, those were the likely outcomes after Wisconsin, too. Get ready for a tense three months on the GOP side. For the Democrats, it looks like Clinton will win -- barring an indictment or a ridiculously impressive late surge from Senator Bernie Sanders. Expect Hillary to start calling for party unity, and get increasingly frustrated as Sanders backers refuse to fall in line. Their battle may be over, but it will still be tense.
It's over, Clinton is the Democratic candidate. https://t.co/Cqum5rUTiG— Josh Barro (@jbarro) April 20, 2016
Very near sweep for Trump likely. 91 delegates for the Donald, 4 delegates for Kasich. Zero for Cruz.
This is how #NeverTrump, #NeverHillary conservatives respond.
Whatever happens after this election..America deserves all of it. #PrimaryDay— Dustin Michaels (@DustinMichaels2) April 20, 2016
Conservatives are saying that Cruz lost tonight because registered conservatives can't vote in the Republican primary.
Only registered Democrats or Republican's can vote today. No independents or registered conservatives.— Charles R. Lewis (@charleysadvisor) April 19, 2016
Only about 150,000 voters are registered conservatives, which is only 1.3 percent of the state's party enrollment. Even if all of them voted for Cruz, he still couldn't compete with Trump. He would beat Kasich, but is that really an accomplishment?
You know you're desperate when...
Kasich's 144 delegates is still behind Rubio's 171.
New numbers, 62 percent reporting:
Trump -- 60.1 percent; Kasich -- 25.0 percent; Cruz -- 14.9 percent.
Trump said, "It's a crooked system, the system is rigged." He's right -- it's largely rigged in his favor.
FiveThirtyEight: The system IS rigged… in Trump’s favor https://t.co/JhIrTOGyb1— Kelly Campagna (@warriorwoman91) April 16, 2016
And Sanders faces a really steep climb to the nomination now. From FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver:
After tonight, Sanders would have to win California by almost 20 points, and Pennsylvania and New Jersey by around 10 points, to eventually claim the majority of pledged delegates. Even though Sanders has made up ground with Clinton over the course of the campaign, results like those would be quite a shock.
Cruz is not getting beaten everywhere. Will Orthodox Jews save him from a full shut-out?
Perhaps they were smart enough to notice why "New York values" was not a coded anti-Semitic message.
Perfect troll moment here.
And here's what every journalist wants to hear.
I would read a story on the person who changes the light color on the Empire State Building.— Adam Smith (@asmith83) April 20, 2016
Some really don't like it.
This is just about the stupidest thing I've heard today. Assigning colors to light up the Empire State Building.— okay curt (@kualst) April 20, 2016
Not everyone is happy the Empire State Building glowed red for Trump.
The Empire State Building is one of my favorite places. Being used for politics seems just wrong!— Logan Jr Chef (@LoganJrChef) April 20, 2016
But it also glowed blue for Hillary.
We're up to 39 percent reporting:
Trump -- 62.7 percent; Kasich -- 23.1 percent; Cruz -- 14.2 percent
It also looks like Trump will win a vast majority of delegates. He's at 77 of 95 now, and Kasich is the only other delegate winner, at a grand total of three.