Liveblogging the GOP Nevada Caucus Results

The Nevada Republican caucus begins at 5 PM Pacific Standard Time, and results are expected at 9 PM PST, which means midnight in Eastern Standard Time -- in five hours. It's going to be a long night!

Nevada is well-known for being mercurial -- real estate tycoon Donald J. Trump leads the latest polls, 16 percent and 26 percent ahead of second place in the most recent two. However, the caucus style tends to reward campaigns that are more organized, such as those of Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Cruz won the Iowa caucus, despite Trump's polling lead there, and Rubio outperformed his poll numbers. Rubio, in particular, should outperform -- he spent many of his teenage years in the state, has many cousins in Las Vegas, and recently received a huge spate of endorsements, including Nevada Senator Orrin Hatch.

Ohio Governor John Kasich has largely written off the state, and is spending the evening in Georgia. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson is reeling from hard losses in the past three states, and an embarrassing last-place finish in highly Evangelical South Carolina.

Without further ado, it's off to the races!

1:40 A.M.

Final Thoughts: Nevada really dropped the ball tonight -- the state GOP will have to explain what was going on with the ballots, why it allowed volunteers to wear campaign swag, and whether or not any other candidate beside Trump was represented by such swag. If Trump had not strongly led in the polls and had some really yuge rallies in Nevada, potential fraud would be the major story coming out of this caucus.

As it stands, Trump won big -- with or without any fraud on the margins -- and Cruz and Rubio will have to switch into high gear to stop his momentum. One week from today, Cruz's "Super Tuesday" firewall will give Trump's challengers one last chance to show they can stop him. Otherwise, the race may be decided. And Trump leads in every single Super Tuesday state, with the lone exception of Texas (where a recent poll did show Trump ahead, but the RealClearPolitics average still puts Cruz in the lead).

1:25 A.M.

Cruz: "You can choose between two Washington dealmakers, or one proven consistent conservative." Touts his leading the fight for "life, marriage, and religious liberty," as well as the Second Amendment. "If you look at those Super Tuesday states, they like their guns."

1:23 P.M.

Trump will be on trial for fraud, but not for any fraud in tonight's election.

And Ted Cruz is speaking in Nevada:

1:10 A.M.

We're up to 14 percent reporting, and Rubio has fallen a bit but Trump is actually higher.

Trump -- 45 percent. Rubio -- 24 percent. Cruz -- 21 percent.

Carson -- 6 percent. Kasich -- 4 percent.

Race is called for Trump, it's still possible for Cruz to overtake Rubio, but unlikely. There really are three tiers -- the Trump, the Senators, and the stragglers.

Carson is fighting on.

1:05 A.M.

Trump should be scary to Evangelicals, not attractive to them.

Love this picture, though.

1:01 A.M.

A "dominant win" for Donald Trump in Nevada. 12 percent reporting:

Trump -- 44 percent. Rubio -- 25 percent. Cruz -- 21 percent.

Carson -- 6 percent. Kasich -- 4 percent.

12:59 A.M.

You literally could not make this up.

"We're going to be the smart people. We're not going to be the people who get pushed around."

12:56 P.M.

"We get greedy, right? Well, we're going to get greedy for the United States of America!" declares the Donald.

Trump drives home the Hispanics numbers.

12:54 P.M.

"If you listen to the pundits, we weren't expected to win too much, but now we're winning, winning, winning the country. And the country's going to start winning, winning, winning," Trump declares. He touts poll numbers in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia -- "It's going to be an amazing two months!"

"Tomorrow, you'll be hearing if they could just take the other candidates and add them up...they keep forgetting, when the other candidates drop out, we're going to get a lot of votes."

12:45 P.M.

Trump's victory speech live on CNN:

Expect non-stop calls for Carson and Kasich to drop out, and maybe even calls for Cruz to drop.

And the confusion of the caucus makes Cruz (and likely Rubio) supporters suspicious.

12:38 P.M.

The amount by which Trump beat Rubio among Hispanics means little: small sample size, and ten percent margin of error.

Drudge calls the entire nomination race for Trump.

12:33 A.M.

The groups that supported Trump:

Can Carson and Kasich get 8 percent together?

12:26 P.M.

Trump beats Cruz with Evangelicals, beats Rubio with Hispanics. What world is this?

Strategies need to change, and Kasich needs to drop.

12:22 P.M.

Meanwhile, in Ben Carson land...

And results are coming in.

12:17 P.M.

Actual results match entrance polls so far.

And Trump is cutting through traditional voting blocs.

12:14 P.M.

A third big win for Donald Trump.

Trump is a real threat -- he has organization and can win.

12:10 A.M.

Results are coming in -- 5 percent reporting:

Trump -- 42 percent. Rubio -- 25 percent. Cruz -- 21 percent.

Carson -- 8 percent. Kasich -- 4 percent.

12:05 P.M.

This really does seem to be the thinking. Projecting Trump victory based on t-shirts and caps of volunteers.

Just a reminder, on Saturday, Sanders led entrance polls, Hillary won the race.

12:03 P.M.

A few minutes after the caucus ends, ABC projects Trump is the winner.

Fox agrees.

12:00 A.M.

This is how many of us feel when we hear how many people voted for Donald Trump.

Very unbiased reporting.

11:58 P.M.

Remember the KKK members who showed up to support Trump? Apparently one of them is black. Definitely a liberal stunt.

Trump's feeling lucky -- "It's record-setting stuff already."

11:53 P.M.

Trump again winning among Evangelical Christians -- who are these people?!

11:50 P.M.

What happens if Trump wins tonight:

Rubio is winning caucus-goers who want experience.

11:45 P.M.

Counting is underway in Nevada -- VIDEO:

Sanders's states the Golden Rule -- no word as to how it applies to envying the wealthy and wanting to take their stuff.

11:38 P.M.

Here is a ballot from the Nevada Caucus (not really).

Perhaps this explains the Nevada Caucus shenanigans:

11:33 P.M.

People voting in the caucus is "insane," says attendee.

11:28 P.M.

Nevada caucus-goers said "economy/jobs" is the most important issue.

Much fewer of them were white Evangelicals, compared to South Carolina.

10:25 P.M.

Compared to Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, a higher percentage of Nevada caucus-goers described themselves as "angry."

A brief reminder, this is the delegate count so far:

11:21 P.M.

Caucus-goers not keen on voting again in four years (or eight, for that matter).

And early entrance poll results: 80 percent identified as conservative.

11:11 P.M.

Nevada caucus entrance polls are notoriously unreliable. Sanders led on Saturday.

Most of us in the press couldn't agree more.

11:09 P.M.

Rubio reportedly wins caucus site in Reno.

And Kasich apparently said he isn't sure what his goal is.

11:03 P.M.

Fairness, they said. "Great job" they said. More than just Trump shirts and hats allowed, they said.

Also, this is important.

10:58 P.M.

Nevada GOP insists volunteers are doing a "great job." I hate to think what a terrible job would look like.

GOP official explains they are taking claims of double ballots seriously.

10:50 P.M.

Is this for real?

Meanwhile.

10:41 P.M.

Rubio makes dig at Cruz -- I just want to make sure no one tells my supporters I'm dropping out of the race.

Sad this comes as Trump supporters dominate the Nevada caucus.

10:38 P.M.

This is so accurate. Nevada could not have planned this better as a way to sacrifice its early voting status.

Apparently organization is a bigger problem than lack of ID checks.

10:37 P.M.

Voters themselves will be able to count the ballots.

10:35 P.M.

Donald Trump has found a sure-fire way to break through his "ceiling."

And some people draw connections to the past.

10:32 P.M.

Does the Nevada GOP wish us to deny these photographs?

Which begs the question.

10:27 P.M.

What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.

In other news.

10:24 P.M.

I tweet "Nevada GOP hasn't tweeted in four hours." Then this happens.

Nevada volunteers are allowed to wear candidate swag.

10:19 P.M.

Nevada GOP hasn't tweeted for four hours. I can't imagine why...

And it's important that Putin gets a vote.

10:14 P.M.

Twitter user calls Nevada Caucus for Trump -- if the "impartial" ballot counters in Trump shirts are any sign, he's likely right on.

10:11 P.M.

I. Have. No. Words.

On second thought, maybe it was a smart move of Kasich to be in Georgia tonight.

10:08 P.M.

Classic misdirection: accuse your opponent of the exact thing you plan to do. Then, when you're caught red-handed, you can say they did it first!

Meanwhile, Cruz party still seems to be on schedule. Maybe they know something the flabbergasted press doesn't.

10:05 P.M.

Full goon squad out tonight: "Sure, I'll take that ballot. Wait, let's see, you voted for Cruz. Whoops, that one's on the floor. Next!"

But at least the Trump campaign -- ahem I mean Nevada Republican Party -- has nice lady volunteers, too. Just make sure you hide your non-Trump ballot under the stack of Trump ones.

10:03 P.M.

No, this isn't suspicious at all. AT ALL.

Yes, your friendly neighborhood press is having what we happily refer to as a "field day." Get used to it -- it's the 2016 election! Why else do you think Trump is running?

10:01 P.M.

Pushing the envelope at the Nevada Caucus.

Glenn Beck to Candy Carson: So when's your boy going to endorse Ted? Candy smiles back, deviously.

9:58 P.M.

Enough worrying for now -- let's have some fun with this.

Yes, this House of Cards.

9:55 P.M.

Carson won't be intimidated by the results of the Nevada Caucus tonight -- he'll be at the debate Thursday come hell or high water.

Here are some reasons why the good doctor isn't letting defeat get to him.

9:51 P.M.

This really puts any Iowa Cruz campaign intimidation in perspective. It wasn't right for Cruz supporters to say Carson had dropped out, but at least they didn't do this:

A new twist -- no site had been set up for this precinct.

9:49 P.M.

Voter fraud, anyone? I sense peril for the State of Nevada in future presidential primaries...

"Like trying to plug holes in the Titanic."

9:46 P.M.

Chaos is contained, Nevada GOP says. Sure, just like ISIS was contained, right?

And this looks like a practical joke -- some Democrats got the idea to pretend they were KKK Trump supporters.

9:45 P.M.

Help us, Nevada caucus voters, you're our only hope!

This is a caucus. Not a rally. NOT A RALLY. This is insane.

9:42 P.M.

First caucus locations don't check IDs, now they don't have long-time Republicans in the system. Can you at least be consistent with how you mess up this process?

9:40 P.M.

Remind me why we're letting Nevada go fourth in this primary process again. I thought it was the Democrats who didn't believe in voter IDs.

And more poll workers wearing Trump gear. Unbiased, much?

9:37 P.M.

And it's happening -- Jeb! to pass the buck to ... wait for it...

Meanwhile, in the People's Republic of the United States:

9:32 P.M.

Donald Trump is really acting like a politician now -- using surrogates, like his son Donald Trump Jr.

But the caucus is so disorganized, it almost isn't funny. Almost.

9:25 P.M.

Trump is the disembodied voice of the Nevada Caucus.

The roving Donald is most certainly a thing.

9:22 P.M.

Now that's a dedicated supporter who feels the Marcomentum.

And is this cute or really, really creepy? I can't tell.

9:18 P.M.

Texas Lieutenant Governor says Cruz is the only conservative in the race.

If Trump wins, at least we'll know why...

9:14 P.M.

More craziness.

Fight it out!

9:10 P.M.

Now there's an enterprising Girl Scout!

And this is terrible.

9:09 P.M.

Extra long lines in Nevada -- very high turnout.

9:06 P.M.

Iowa's Steve Deace showing Christians what to do when Trump unleashes another Bible declaration.

9:04 P.M.

Genn Beck caucusing for Ted Cruz.

By the way, Christie's donor list has gone to Rubio.

8:59 P.M.

I'm voting for Mike Huckabee!

Craziness.

8:56 P.M.

Perhaps the Nevada Caucus is as crazy and messed up as ever.

8:53 P.M.

BREAKING: Reports say Nevada Caucus runs out of ballots.

And that's it -- the election is over.

8:42 P.M.

Here's how the Nevada Caucus is organized.

This couple is Caucusing for Ted Cruz.

8:39 P.M.

So the Democrats are having a Townhall on CNN. Here are a few highlights:

And yet.

8:26 P.M.

 

And the Rubio campaign is insisting they did not say Marco will skip CPAC.

8:19 P.M.

Dear The Onion, you are making me miss the days when you were an equal-opportunity mocker. That is all.

And on Ben Carson:

8:16 P.M.

Trump just used The Bible. To Brag.

Which reminds the astute of how he doesn't think he needs God's forgiveness.

8:12 P.M.

In this nomination fight, the stakes for the GOP could not be higher, some say.

By the way, in the last three weeks, Rubio got more endorsements than Bush scored all year.

8:05 P.M.

And apparently, Nevada is also make or break for Ted Cruz as well.

8:00 P.M.

One way or another, history WILL be made in this Republican nomination fight. No candidate has gotten the sort of endorsement surge Rubio has received after Iowa and not gone on to win the nomination.

If Trump is beaten, this will also make history.

7:58 P.M.

Waiting for the Nevada Caucus.

And is Trump inevitable? There are good arguments on either side.

7:52 P.M.

Rubio faces criticism for reportedly planning to skip the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) next week.

In other news, a town in Louisiana called Convent is hit with a devastating tornado.

7:48 P.M.

Many eyes are on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, as politicos expect his endorsement forthcoming. Jeb! may not have been a stellar candidate, but he owes almost as much to Donald Trump as he does to himself for the sad end of his campaign.

And here's a Rubio supporter in Reno, Nevada.

7:40 P.M.

We might just have a winner....tomorrow afternoon!

Even with low turnout, Trump could emerge victorious.

7:37 P.M.

If Rubio does really well tonight, this is a possibility:

And in Democratic news, this is the zany reality.

7:35 P.M.

Here's more Ted Cruz on federal land.

And here's the updated delegate count, going into the Nevada GOP Caucus:

7:30 P.M.

By the way, Carson had the audacity to say this. Talk about ballsy:

7:27 P.M.

While we're on the subject of campaign rallies in Nevada, here's Ben Carson's:

And here's his youngest supporter.

7:24 P.M.

Trump may not have a great turnout operation in Nevada, but if it looks like this rally, Cruz and Rubio are in trouble.

Meanwhile, this was Ted Cruz's crowd at a rally with Glenn Beck:

7:21 P.M.

Trump and Cruz go back and forth on Federal land use policy -- 82.9 percent of Nevada's land is owned by the Federal government. Here's a Cruz ad on the issue:

7:16 P.M.

Rubio has a history in Nevada, and can connect with many on a personal level. He has tens of cousins out there, many are volunteering for his campaign. The Florida Senator was, for a brief time, a Mormon living in Las Vegas. Then he went back to the Roman Catholic Church -- no more tee-totaling!

Trump, meanwhile, is still a tee-totaler, and his clean living might be one reason he doesn't remember confessing sins to God and asking forgiveness.

7:14 P.M.

More on Trump's temperament:

That might be among the reasons Trump did not perform well among late-deciders in South Carolina.

7:11 P.M. (Eastern Time)

Nevada is well-known for having an unreliable caucus, so the Republican Party has decided to enter the 21st Century.

If Rubio outperforms, it may be due to differences in temperament. After Trump's attacks on George W. Bush for 9-11, will his support in the Republican Party keep slipping?