Liveblogging Super Tuesday


The first polls close at 7 P.M. Eastern time, and we'll have the results as the night goes on. As for delegates, Donald Trump leads the pack with 82 delegates of the 1,237 needed to win the Republican nomination. Ted Cruz is in second with 17 delegates, with Marco Rubio at 16. John Kasich has 6 delegates, and Ben Carson 4. 595 delegates are at stake tonight.

Polls give Trump a lead in almost all of the 11 states holding Republican contests this evening: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Alaska, and Minnesota.

Here we go!

1:35 P.M.

Results are still coming in from Alaska (30 percent reporting), where Trump is narrowly beating Cruz in the 30s, and Rubio comes in a distant third with 14.9 percent.

Delegate counts after tonight, as of 1:25 A.M.:

GOP: Trump -- 274. Cruz -- 149. Rubio -- 82. Kasich -- 25. Carson -- 8.

Dems: Clinton -- 1,001. Sanders -- 371.

Final Thoughts: Cruz and Rubio still have a shot to stop Trump and replace him. After tonight, Cruz looks stronger than Rubio to do so. Nevertheless, it is important to remember that later states -- which tend to be more moderate and award delegates on a winner-take-all basis -- will likely tilt Rubio over Cruz, so Rubio can still make a strong argument that the calendar favors him.

If Kasich had won Vermont tonight, he could also have made that argument. As it stands, two second-place finishes are no replacement for a win, even just one. Rubio's victory in Minnesota cements the idea that he is viable, although his Virginia loss only means he received one less delegate there than Trump. Unless Kasich can win Ohio and translate that into momentum going into April, he is finished.

Carson's campaign has passed its expiration date. The good doctor is beginning to toy with conspiracy theories as to why his campaign is struggling, and he should have enough self-knowledge to realize it's time to quit. The longer he stays in, the less of an inspiring figure he becomes.

Clinton is now even more heavily favored to win the Democrat nomination. She has 42 percent of the delegates she needs to become the nominee. I still hold out hope that Sanders will win more delegates from voting, so Clinton wins only due to super delegates, but his chances of even pulling off that symbolic victory are now slim. Hillary Clinton has cobbled together much of Obama's winning 2008 coalition, focused heavily on black voters. The Democratic race now looks the way it did in 2008, with Clinton in the role of Obama and Sanders in the role of Clinton.


12:21 P.M.

Delegates as of now:

Trump -- 258. Cruz -- 110. Rubio -- 70. Kasich -- 23. Carson -- 8.

In that vein, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham says the GOP may rally around Cruz to beat Trump. This from the same man who said choosing between Trump and Cruz is like choosing between "being shot or being poisoned."

12:15 P.M.

By the way, Chris Christie is still trending on Twitter.

12:12 A.M.

There may still be hope in defeating Trump:

12:09 P.M.

Is Gingrich flirting with a Trump endorsement? This point is very valid: All eyes were on Trump because news seemed to hint that Florida Governor Rick Scott would endorse The Donald at this "news conference."

Also, Rubio is gaining ground on Trump. This race is not over.

12:02 A.M.

This just in: Trump wins Vermont, Kasich in second, Rubio third. Kasich has not won a single state thus far. Expect increasing calls for him to drop out.

This is depressing.

11:58 P.M.

We are looking at a very fractured Democratic Party -- black voters strongly favored Clinton, young voters heavily backed Sanders.

And FiveThirtyEight's Julia Azari on GOP geography:

As I look at this list of contenders and of states that have held contests so far, one thing that strikes me is that this suddenly no longer looks like the party of Nixon, Goldwater and Reagan — the party of the West. California is pretty much a lost cause for Republicans. And yet the interior west and several of the Plains states — the Dakotas, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Kansas — are incredibly strong for Republican presidential candidates. Some of those states vote fairly late, but it seems possible now that the contest could go on that long (or longer). With prominent Nebraska Republican Ben Sasse leading the #NeverTrump movement, I’ll be curious to see what happens as these states head to the polls.

11:56 P.M.

Tennessee may give Rubio delegates -- he has finally broken 20 percent there. Many Super Tuesday states will only award delegates to candidates who gain at least 20 percent of the vote.

Trump has gained so much free media...

11:51 P.M.

GOP states are voting based on their economic status.

With the Associated Press calling Arkansas for Trump, it now looks like Trump will win all four of the states I labeled “Southern strugglers” (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee), in most cases by large margins. Cruz has won both of the “energy boomers” that have reported so far (Texas and Oklahoma), with Alaska results still outstanding. The third group, wealthier states I labeled “educated elites,” are a bit more mixed: Trump won Massachusetts overwhelmingly and Virginia narrowly. In Vermont, he’s battling with Kasich (!), and he looks likely to lose Minnesota to either Rubio or Cruz.

And Trump's claim to have come in first or second in every state is disproven just a few minutes later.

11:47 P.M.

Yes, Kasich. Rubio is the spoiler for you. That's why you're in fourth most places and Rubio is in third.

Current results:

11:44 P.M.

Fox News's Super Tuesday scorecard:

Breaking News:

11:41 P.M.

How bad was Marco Rubio's night really? Rumors of his humiliating defeat may be greatly exaggerated.

And this is fascinating:

11:39 P.M.

The New York Times's delegate estimates for tonight:

Also, interesting tidbit from FiveThirtyEight commenter Andy Hicken:

The last time 4 candidates from one party all won a state on the same night: March 3, 1992. Paul Tsongas won Maryland, Utah, and Washington, Tom Harkin won Idaho and Minnesota, Jerry Brown won Colorado, and Bill Clinton won Georgia.

11:32 P.M.

When it comes to beating expectations, Cruz, Rubio, and Clinton struck gold.

11:28 P.M.

Breaking: The Associated Press calls Minnesota for Bernie Sanders. That brings him up to 4 wins, verses Clinton's 7 wins. That doesn't save his campaign, but the battle isn't over yet.

11:25 P.M.

States still undecided for Republicans: Vermont and Alaska. For Democrats: Minnesota.

Current Breakdown -- GOP:

Trump: Georgia, Virginia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas.

Cruz: Texas, Oklahoma.

Rubio: Minnesota.

Current Breakdown -- Dem:

Clinton: Texas, Georgia, Virginia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas.

Sanders: Vermont, Oklahoma, Colorado.

Did the lack of a GOP race in Colorado tonight hurt Rubio?

11:20 P.M.

Poor Jim Gilmore -- even in the ignominy of defeat, your one glimmer of hope must be shattered by skeptical analysts at FiveThirtyEight.

And this video is perfect. When Lindsey Graham says "we may be in a position where we have to rally around Ted Cruz"...

11:16 P.M.

Bernie Sanders wins Colorado. As a native of the Centennial State, I must admit this does not come as a surprise.

Bigger news -- Ted Cruz said this, and did not seem petty in doing so.

11:14 P.M.

I never thought I would see the day -- Ben Carson playing the victim.

And. This. Is. Hilarious.

11:11 P.M.

Rubio wins Minnesota. That's right -- Marco Rubio just won his first state.

And Fox News is...wait for it... TOO NICE to Donald Trump.

11:07 P.M.

Crazy 2016 election tidbits.

And there's irony for you. Trump is the insider of all insiders.

11:04 P.M.

Cruz could TROUNCE Rubio in delegates tonight.

And Lindsey Graham would rally behind Cruz to stop Trump.

10:38 P.M.

After tonight, will the GOP anti-Trump strategy shift from positive to negative?

10:34 P.M.

So far, we have a rather clear breakdown. Trump is first, Cruz is a clear second, and Rubio third.

Nevertheless, Rubio declares that "now, the math starts to get good for our campaign." He's not entirely wrong.

Later states are more moderate, and more winner-take-all. "When we get to the winner-take-all states of this election, that's going to be good for my campaign," Rubio declares.

10:31 P.M.

Cruz presents a strong victory speech on Super Tuesday.

But Rubio explains that Cruz was supposed to win "five or more states" tonight, rather than two. "My campaign never claimed that Super Tuesday would be the night that we surged."

10:29 P.M.

Rubio may win Minnesota, with Cruz in second place. Trump said he never got worse than second -- that may not be true in a few hours.

From FiveThirtyEight's Harry Enten:

Minnesota is probably not going to be won by Trump. With a little over a third of precincts reporting, Rubio is ahead there 34.5 percent to Cruz’s 30.4 percent. Trump is way back at 21.8 percent, and he’s not leading in any congressional district.

10:25 P.M.

"If you're angry at Washington, I understand." Trump should not be your candidate, Cruz says. He brings up the secret New York Times immigration tape. Strong move.

Cruz touts endorsements of former Texas Governor Rick Perry, current Governor Greg Abbott.

10:22 P.M.

The Associated Press calls Arkansas for Donald Trump.

Cruz hits The Donald by saying Trump has promised to expand Obamacare. Trump supports cronyism, but "I will stand with the working people of this country and end corporate welfare."

More Cruz: "Trump funded the Gang of Eight. I opposed it. Trump supports Planned Parenthood. I will direct the Justice Department to investigate Planned Parenthood."

10:19 P.M.

Cruz says that only he can beat Trump in the primary. After tonight, that sounds reasonable. Rubio badly needs a win, and Florida is make-or-break for him.

Here's FiveThirtyEight's Harry Enten:

As Dave said, Rubio is in danger of not hitting statewide delegate thresholds in Alabama, Tennessee and Texas. He needs to hit 20 percent in all three, but he’s only at 17.8 percent in Alabama, 19.7 percent in Tennessee and 18.4 percent in Texas. It would not be good for him if those numbers hold.

10:17 P.M.

Ted Cruz speaking in Stafford, TX. "Our campaign is the only campaign that has beaten, that can beat, and that will beat Donald Trump."

The one Republican winning states besides Trump is Cruz.

10:15 P.M.

Fox News's Megyn Kelly says this is Trump's perfect scenario -- Trump is racking up wins, but other candidates are gaining enough to seem like they have a shot. With Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich each gaining delegates, none of them is likely to drop out anytime soon.

Tune in more for Cruz in Texas!

10:11 P.M.

BREAKING: No Rick Scott endorsement tonight. But Chris Christie is dominating the Twitters.

10:09 P.M.

Vermont Primary -- 62 percent reporting:

Trump -- 32.5 percent. Kasich -- 30.8 percent. Rubio -- 19.5 percent. Cruz -- 9.6 percent. Carson -- 4 percent.

Democrat race war? Hillary's impressive margins among black voters:

10:04 P.M.

It's called slavery, Donald. Tyranny, servitude, and slavery.

"Paul Ryan, I'm sure I'm going to get along with him fine. And if I don't, he's going to have to pay a big price, ok?" Telling.

10:00 P.M.

Christie is so in thrall to Trump right now... I would feel sorry for him, if he hadn't sold his soul to the guy.

9:57 P.M.

Trump may be claiming victory, but Chris Christie is stealing the show, and not in a good way...

And this is GOLD.

9:55 P.M.

This is hilarious.

And where is Rick Scott? We were promised Rick Scott!

9:53 P.M.

"I do congratulate Ted, because I know how hard Ted worked in Texas," Trump declares. But he notes, "I came in no worse than second."

Trump said Rubio lost tonight, and it's hard to disagree with that assessment.

9:50 P.M.

"We have expanded the Republican Party," declares Donald Trump. Hard to argue with that, but to what end?

Trump has shaken things so much, FiveThirtyEight says we can't rely on history to project this election.

"Millions of women have been helped by Planned Parenthood, but we are not going to fund as long as you have the abortion at Planned Parenthood."

9:46 P.M.

"We're going to create jobs like you've never seen...The middle class has been forgotten in our country," declares Donald Trump, showing why he is now winning on jobs and the economy.

9:42 P.M.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie introduces "the next President of the United States, Donald Trump." DRINK!

"Making America Great Again is going to be so much better than making America whole again," Trump says of Clinton's new slogan.

9:38 P.M.

FiveThirtyEight said there's a 66 percent chance Trump win will Florida -- that was BEFORE Florida Governor Rick Scott endorsed The Donald.

There it is. Trump is the Mitt Romney of 2016.

9:33 P.M.

BREAKING: Fox News Confirms that Florida Governor Rick Scott Will Endorse Trump.

9:32 P.M.

Will Super Tuesday be a big night for Ted Cruz, despite losses in Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee?

And Texas goes for Hillary.

9:25 P.M.

Pro-Rubio Conservative Solutions PAC is hitting Trump hard on Fox News. Prepare for the Trump-Fox war, version 3.

9:23 P.M.

Rubio is on the verge of racking up delegates, despite losses in many states. It's not over yet.

Truer words have never been spoken.

9:20 P.M.

By the way, on the Liberty University front, when Falwell Jr. backed Trump, this brave board member stood up, and after the results in that county of Virginia tonight, it looks like he prevailed.

Visual Super Tuesday results:

9:17 P.M.

Cruz now has won three states, Kasich might win in Vermont. Rubio still lacks a win, but delegate math will help him for now.

9:13 P.M.

AP calls Oklahoma for Ted Cruz! Cruz has won both Oklahoma and Texas tonight.

9:11 P.M.

Rubio repeats that if he is president, "We will take sides, we will be on Israel's side."

"If any community in America understands that Socialism doesn't work, it's right here in Miami, and it's right here in Florida," he declares. Also, Rubio does have accomplishments -- here they are:

9:08 P.M.

And for some lighter fare.

Also, the best worst candidate you will ever see: Vermin Supreme.

9:05 P.M.

Rubio declares Trump a "con artist," says "The Party of Lincoln and Reagan will never be ruled by a con artist." But Trump is winning in many states...

This caveat is very important, however.

9:01 P.M.

Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton predicted to win Texas. Cruz wins by an 11-point lead.

Meanwhile, a lawsuit against Cruz has been dismissed.

Get ready to hear Cruz tell the other candidates to drop so he can go mano-a-mano against Trump.

8:57 P.M.

This country belongs not just to people who worship one way, or "even think one way!" Wait, is Hillary Clinton opposing the oppressive speech of political correctness?

Hillary Clinton says we need more love and kindness, but she sounds neither loving nor kind as she says so.

Clinton refers to the original Tea Party, and says companies are "turning their back" on America for "not paying their fair share." But wasn't the original Tea Party about protesting high taxes?

8:55 P.M.

Could Trump yet lose Virginia?

Also, Hillary's voice is hoarse as the speaks in Miami.

8:51 P.M.

#NeverTrump may still have hope as state after state goes for The Donald. But signs point to the need to stop him by the Ides of March.

FoxNews calls Texas for "form" -- oh wait, that's a typo!

8:48 P.M.


And, by the way, Arkansas's former First Lady is projected to win in that state.

8:45 P.M.

Kasich is surprisingly competitive with Trump in Vermont. He may not just be a spoiler for Rubio (like he was in VA).

In other news, Rubio might break the 20 percent threshold to win delegates in Texas.

8:37 P.M.

Crazy numbers -- Trump comes in fourth in Lynchburg, VA, center of Liberty University, but still wins Virginia.

8:34 P.M.

Fox calls Virginia for Trump. Did not enough Virginians see the debate?

8:32 P.M.

Kasich will speak in Mississippi.

Trump and Cruz fighting for first place in Arkansas -- Cruz may win more than just Texas tonight. He needs to do so, otherwise people will be calling for him to drop to support Rubio. And this was a harrowing moment.

8:30 P.M.

Cruz and Rubio are leading in the first state with a closed Republican Primary, Oklahoma.

It's possible Carson is at least partly staying in to weaken Cruz, but is Kasich staying in just to sabotage Rubio?

8:27 P.M.

Inside Virginia: Alexandria City, known as the home of GOP consultants, goes against Cruz, for Rubio by wide margins.

And Virginia is known for being painfully slow.

8:22 P.M.

In Lynchburg, Virginia, home of Liberty University, where the University's president, Jerry Falwell Jr., backed Trump, The Donald is in THIRD behind Rubio and Cruz.

Results in VA, 77.46 percent reporting:

Rubio -- 35.67 percent. Trump -- 31.98 percent. Cruz -- 17.83 percent. Kasich -- 8.49 percent. Carson --5.05 percent.

8:19 P.M.

Inside Trump's winning coalition:

And Clinton is winning Obama's coalition -- at least among blacks.

8:16 P.M.

Will Virginia Beach prevent a victory on behalf of Marco Rubio?

Here are the paths to the nomination for Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, and...Carson.

8:13 P.M.

By the way, we're really losing to China and Mexico. If only Donald Trump were president... we'd be losing even more.

And Clinton's strength is among blacks, the opposite of 2008.

8:10 P.M.

Evangelicals in Alabama chose Trump and Rubio ahead of Ted Cruz. Painful loss for the Texan.

Even as high-profile Christian leaders are uniting, not behind any candidate, but against Trump.

8:07 P.M.

In Virginia, it all comes down to Fairfax County.

Rubio is winning in Dave Brat country -- the area where an unknown Economics professor beat Eric Cantor, the sitting House Majority Leader. This may be a very bad sign for the anti-establishment Trump.

8:00 P.M.

As polls close in 5 more states, here are Virginia's latest unofficial results, with 59.8 percent reporting:

Rubio -- 35.76 percent. Trump -- 31.74 percent. Cruz -- 18.05 percent. Kasich -- 8.51 percent. Carson -- 4.98 percent.

Fox News projects Trump winning Alabama, after endorsement by Senator Jeff Sessions. Also winning Massachusetts, Tennessee.

7:57 P.M.

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on why Trump won Georgia easily but is fighting it out to the finish in Virginia with Rubio:

Why is Trump winning Georgia easily — our ABC News colleagues just called the state for him — while Virginia is extremely competitive between Trump and Rubio? One reason is the higher share of college-educated voters in the primaries in Virginia: About 60 percent compared with 50 percent in Georgia, according to exit polls. Still, this doesn’t explain the whole difference: Trump is winning college-educated voters in Georgia but losing them in Virginia. That some Republicans who are active in party politics live in Virginia — maybe you can think of them as literal members of the establishment — may also matter at the margin.

And this is why he knows so much:

7:54 P.M.

In Virginia, 49.6 percent reporting:

Rubio -- 36.19 percent. Trump -- 31.36 percent. Cruz -- 18.16 percent. Kasich -- 8.37 percent. Carson -- 4.93 percent.

In other news, Hillary wins American Samoa.

7:50 P.M.

Rubio is really challenging Trump for first place in Virginia.

Here's more.

7:49 P.M.

Some damning results from Georgia for Ted Cruz:

But what kind of Evangelicals are backing The Donald? The kind who don't go to church regularly.

7:45 P.M.

Live Virginia Republican Primary results:

Trump is leading Rubio right now, but the most pro-Rubio areas have not been counted yet.

And this is great.

7:34 P.M.

Vermont may be Sanders country, but it has not yet been called for Trump, even though Georgia has been.

And Rubio is winning in the backyard of the Washington, DC Republican establishment:

Carson -- 3 percent. Cruz -- 13 percent. Kasich -- 24 percent. Rubio -- 40 percent. Trump -- 18 percent.

7:32 P.M.

A whopping 83 percent of voters in Arkansas rate themselves "conservative," with more than half of that "very conservative."

Bernie Sanders' crowd chants "Feel the Bern" in Vermont!

7:27 P.M.

In the past week, Marco Rubio has come out swinging against Donald Trump. Both will be in Florida tonight -- Rubio attacking Trump from Miami, Trump attacking Rubio from West Palm Beach!

7:25 P.M.

Georgia has been called for Trump.

Georgia and Virginia have been called for Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side, with Vermont called for Bernie Sanders. No surprises there.