Live-Blogging the New Hampshire Primary
What happens if Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson (distant seventh and eighth in New Hampshire) pull out of the race? From FiveThirtyEight's Carl Bialik:
The online pollsters at Morning Consult added up results from January polls it conducted among 5,456 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationally, asking for their first and second choices among the candidates. So far Morning Consult has published second-choice data for supporters of candidates who have already dropped out. They shared with us the data for Carson and Fiorina. Among Carson supporters, 24 percent had Cruz as their second choice, 19 percent named Trump and 10 percent named Rubio. Fiorina had far fewer supporters, but they might be higher leverage: 23 percent said they supported Rubio, 14 percent named Cruz and 5 percent named Trump. (Another 18 percent named Carson, and in this scenario those supporters would need to go to their third choice, or maybe skip voting.) Of course, these polls preceded the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, and voters’ second choices could be even more volatile than their first choices are.
The night is winding down, and the full numbers have not yet been released.
On the Republican side, with 78 percent reporting (233 of 300 precincts), the lineup is Trump (34.5 percent), Kasich (16.4 percent), Cruz (11.5 percent), Bush (11.2 percent), and Rubio (10.5 percent).
For the Democrats, with 78 percent reporting (234 of 300 precincts), Sanders (59.9 percent) beats Clinton (38.5 percent).
Delegates have tentatively been awarded for the evening. Trump has been given 10, Kasich 3, Cruz and Bush each 2. Sanders has been allocated 13 delegates, and Clinton 9. There are 4,763 delegates in the Democrat nominating convention, and 2,472 on the Republican side. Clinton or Sanders must win 2,382 -- while a Republican needs to take 1,237 to win the nomination. We still have a very long way to go.
As Twitter recedes into its nightly delirium, people are going crazy over a new addition to the menu, added by MSNBC's Chris Hayes. In a moment of weakness, Hayes referred to the winner of the Democrat New Hampshire Primary as "Bernie Sandwich."
— Jim Early (@mkearley2008) February 10, 2016
To which an anonymous Twitter user responded with this meme:
Trump dump - what you do when you're done with your Bernie Sandwich. #NHPrimary pic.twitter.com/Z2wobIMZbB
— PoliticalGroove (@PoliticalGroove) February 10, 2016
This gives a whole new meaning to #FeelTheBern
Florida Senator Marco Rubio points to his poor debate performance as the reason he did not perform well in New Hampshire tonight.
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) February 10, 2016
With 70 percent reporting (211 of 300 precincts), the Republican lineup remains unchanged.
Trump (34.3 percent), Kasich (16.3 percent), Cruz (11.5 percent), Bush (11.2 percent), Rubio (10.4 percent).
The finish for third may be down to Cruz and Bush, with the Texas senator ahead by only 696 votes. Rubio has 1,457 votes less than Bush -- 2,153 less than Cruz.
Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie going to drop out? He came in sixth.
BREAKING: Christie heading home to New Jersey to 'take a deep breath,' take stock of presidential bid.
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 10, 2016
Did Christie spend his last campaign breath attacking Rubio?
— Will Zasadny (@WillZasadny) February 10, 2016
Millennial Katie Pavlich has a lesson for young Sanders supporters.
Dear millennials who gave socialist Sanders victory (& vote for dems in general): socialism didnt bring you the iphone, capitalism did #FITN
— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) February 10, 2016
And notes the likely failure of his economic plan.
If Bernie were paying attention, he would know that money doesn't necessarily mean you can buy an election, just ask Jeb Bush #FITN
— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) February 10, 2016
Not all conservative activists are happy with a Trump victory.
If authoritarian Trump is the "anti-establishment" answer, I regret everything I've done with my career thus far. https://t.co/WIlFYOANoo
— C. Whalen Stephens (@CorieWStephens) February 10, 2016
And Hugh Hewitt asks a salient question.
Does @tedcruz claim the only viable defender of the true faith title and demand others step aside?
— Hugh Hewitt (@hughhewitt) February 10, 2016
And the real winner of the night is...
— Rare Liberty (@rareliberty) February 10, 2016
In other news, National Review is not backing down.
— National Review (@NRO) February 10, 2016
Jeb Bush isn't scared of John Kasich either. The Associated Press reports:
Jeb Bush's campaign doesn't think much of rival John Kasich's second-place showing in New Hampshire's Republican presidential primary.
Kasich finished behind Donald Trump. Bush — a former Florida governor — is in a close race with two senators — Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida — for third.
Bush spokesman Tim Miller says Kasich "ran a one-state campaign" in New Hampshire and doesn't have "a viable path" to the nomination.
The next Republican contest is in South Carolina later in February, and Miller says the Bush campaign feels "very confident about our position" in the state.
As for Kasich, Miller contends that the former congressman "doesn't have a constituency past New Hampshire."