Live-Blogging the New Hampshire Primary

The final voting places in New Hampshire close at 8 PM Eastern time tonight. Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and real estate tycoon Donald J. Trump lead all the polls on the Democrat and Republican sides, respectively, but polls are notoriously untrustworthy in the Granite State.

New Hampshire has an open primary, so unaffiliated voters can vote in either party. About 40 percent of Granite Staters are unaffiliated, but only about one third of them are truly independents. Nevertheless, swing-over voters are not unheard of, and crossover Republicans are likely to vote for Sanders in the Democrat race, while Democrats are said to favor Ohio Governor John Kasich.

Follow PJ Media's live blog for updates as results come in from the Granite State.

 

11:36 P.M.

The night is winding down, and the full numbers have not yet been released.

On the Republican side, with 78 percent reporting (233 of 300 precincts), the lineup is Trump (34.5 percent), Kasich (16.4 percent), Cruz (11.5 percent), Bush (11.2 percent), and Rubio (10.5 percent).

For the Democrats, with 78 percent reporting (234 of 300 precincts), Sanders (59.9 percent) beats Clinton (38.5 percent).

Delegates have tentatively been awarded for the evening. Trump has been given 10, Kasich 3, Cruz and Bush each 2. Sanders has been allocated 13 delegates, and Clinton 9. There are 4,763 delegates in the Democrat nominating convention, and 2,472 on the Republican side. Clinton or Sanders must win 2,382 -- while a Republican needs to take 1,237 to win the nomination. We still have a very long way to go.

11:28 P.M.

As Twitter recedes into its nightly delirium, people are going crazy over a new addition to the menu, added by MSNBC's Chris Hayes. In a moment of weakness, Hayes referred to the winner of the Democrat New Hampshire Primary as "Bernie Sandwich."

To which an anonymous Twitter user responded with this meme:

This gives a whole new meaning to #FeelTheBern

11:14 P.M.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio points to his poor debate performance as the reason he did not perform well in New Hampshire tonight.

11:10 P.M.

What happens if Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson (distant seventh and eighth in New Hampshire) pull out of the race? From FiveThirtyEight's Carl Bialik:

The online pollsters at Morning Consult added up results from January polls it conducted among 5,456 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationally, asking for their first and second choices among the candidates. So far Morning Consult has published second-choice data for supporters of candidates who have already dropped out. They shared with us the data for Carson and Fiorina. Among Carson supporters, 24 percent had Cruz as their second choice, 19 percent named Trump and 10 percent named Rubio. Fiorina had far fewer supporters, but they might be higher leverage: 23 percent said they supported Rubio, 14 percent named Cruz and 5 percent named Trump. (Another 18 percent named Carson, and in this scenario those supporters would need to go to their third choice, or maybe skip voting.) Of course, these polls preceded the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, and voters’ second choices could be even more volatile than their first choices are.

10:48 P.M.

With 70 percent reporting (211 of 300 precincts), the Republican lineup remains unchanged.

Trump (34.3 percent), Kasich (16.3 percent), Cruz (11.5 percent), Bush (11.2 percent), Rubio (10.4 percent).

The finish for third may be down to Cruz and Bush, with the Texas senator ahead by only 696 votes. Rubio has 1,457 votes less than Bush -- 2,153 less than Cruz.

10:45 P.M.

Is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie going to drop out? He came in sixth.

Did Christie spend his last campaign breath attacking Rubio?

10:37 P.M.

Millennial Katie Pavlich has a lesson for young Sanders supporters.

And notes the likely failure of his economic plan.

10:35 P.M.

Not all conservative activists are happy with a Trump victory.

And Hugh Hewitt asks a salient question.

10:31 P.M.

And the real winner of the night is...

In other news, National Review is not backing down.

10:28 P.M.

Jeb Bush isn't scared of John Kasich either. The Associated Press reports:

Jeb Bush's campaign doesn't think much of rival John Kasich's second-place showing in New Hampshire's Republican presidential primary.

Kasich finished behind Donald Trump. Bush — a former Florida governor — is in a close race with two senators — Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida — for third.

Bush spokesman Tim Miller says Kasich "ran a one-state campaign" in New Hampshire and doesn't have "a viable path" to the nomination.

The next Republican contest is in South Carolina later in February, and Miller says the Bush campaign feels "very confident about our position" in the state.

As for Kasich, Miller contends that the former congressman "doesn't have a constituency past New Hampshire."

10:27 P.M.

Republicans up to 58 percent reporting (175 of 300 precincts).

Trump (34.3 percent), Kasich (16.1 percent), Cruz (11.6 percent), Bush (11.2 percent), Rubio (10.5 percent).

Democrats hit 60 percent reporting (180 precincts): Sanders (59.4 percent), Clinton (38.8 percent).

Democrats might not need to be scared of Kasich, even though he took the "establishment" second place in New Hampshire.

10:18 P.M.

Trump: "I heard parts of Bernie's speech -- he wants to give our country away, folks."

"We are going to make America great again, but we are going to do it the old-fashioned way," Trump declared. "We're going to beat China, Japan, we are going to beat Mexico in trade!"

By contrast, Kasich tells Granite Staters to "slow down, look [your neighbor] in the eye, give them a hug. It doesn't take government to change America."

10:08 P.M.

Citizens United is hot tonight.

Both of the New Hampshire Primary victors oppose the campaign finance rules set by Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, also known as free speech in politics.

10:06 P.M.

FiveThirtyEight's Dave Wasserman:

The bad news for Bush at the moment is that he’s in danger of being edged out for third place by Ted Cruz. Curiously, Cruz’s slight surge into third seems to be fueled by strong showings in Strafford County, especially around Rochester along the Maine border. Perhaps not coincidentally, these were also some of Rick Santorum’s best towns in the 2012 primary. A week ago, Bush backers would have been ecstatic about finishing ahead of Marco Rubio. But finishing behind John Kasich and Cruz could take a lot of the luster off.

Cruz takes Santorum's old counties, Jeb might beat Rubio, but there's still time left -- only 51 percent reporting(153 of 300 precincts).

Trump (33.7 percent), Kasich (16.3 percent), Cruz (11.6 percent), Bush (11.3 percent), Rubio (10.5 percent).

Democrats - 52 percent reporting (155 precincts): Sanders (59.6 percent), Clinton (38.7 percent).

9:51 P.M.

Don't worry, campaign finance hypocrisy is on both sides of the Democrat primary.

9:48 P.M.

Bernie Sanders: "I don't have a super PAC, and I won't have a super PAC." But he tops his rivals in the use of outside money, according to such a notorious conservative outlet as The New York Times. National Nurses United has a super PAC for Bernie:

The union's "super PAC" has spent close to $1 million on ads and other support for Mr. Sanders, the Democratic presidential candidate who has inspired liberal voters with his calls to eradicate such outside groups. In fact, more super PAC money has been spent so far in express support of Mr. Sanders than for either of his Democratic rivals, including Hillary Clinton, according to Federal Election Commission records.

"I do appreciate the irony," said RoseAnn DeMoro, the executive director of National Nurses United. "All things being equal, we would rather not be doing this. On the other hand, we want to see Bernie as president."

9:42 P.M.

"The people want real change," declares Bernie Sanders. "We can no longer continue to have a campaign finance system in which Wall Street and the Billionaire class are able to buy elections." That's why Sanders and Trump won, right? Wall Street totally bought their elections, right? Oh wait...

9:33 P.M.

New Hampshire Democrats seem rather happy with Obama's policies - but 40 percent of them want something even more liberal.

41 percent want to continue Obama's policies

9:25 P.M.

Updated results. Republicans 33 percent reporting (99 of 300 precincts), Democrats 35 percent reporting (106 of 300 precincts):

Trump (33.9 percent), Kasich (15.6 percent), Cruz (11.8 percent), Bush (11.5 percent), Rubio (10.3 percent).

Sanders (58.4 percent), Clinton (39.7 percent).

9:20 P.M.

Hillary Clinton declares that "Citizens United was actually a right-wing attack on me." She is correct.

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission upheld the right to free political speech. It was not "one of the worst Supreme Court decisions," as Clinton said, because it defended the right of groups of individuals to speak up about a candidate. Check out this post from the Federalist - "Thank Citizens United You Can See 13 Hours"

9:12 P.M.

ABC News calls second place for Ohio Governor John Kasich!

“Third place is currently a three person race between Cruz, Bush, and Rubio.”

9:10 P.M.

FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone finds a strong answer to former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's assertion that "there is a special place in hell" for women who don't support Clinton. Malone quoted Jill Dater, an English teacher:

When asked about recent comments by Gloria Steinem and former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright about women’s obligation to support Hillary Clinton, Dater, 43, cited Susan Sarandon, who said recently of her support for Sanders: “I don’t vote with my vagina.”

“There’s a seat in hell for them too,” added Watson, 43, riffing on Albright’s line about the need for women to help one another advance.

9:06 P.M.

A salient question from RedState's Ben Howe. But remember -- only 26 percent of the results are in!

9:02 P.M.

This is the worst possible outcome for the G.O.P. establishment, some say.

9:00 P.M.

25 percent reporting, and Cruz's lead on Jeb Bush is increasing!

Trump (34.7 percent), Kasich (15.5 percent), Cruz (11.8 percent), Bush (11.4 percent), Rubio (10.5 percent)

In other news,

8:56 P.M.

Class warfare on the Democratic side?

This is true, by the way:

8:51 P.M.

"Old, white and crazy dudes are back in style."

In Iowa, young Cubans and old white ladies were in style. I guess times change.

8:50 P.M.

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on New Hampshire:

According to exit polls, only 48 percent of New Hampshire Republican voters would be pleased with Donald Trump as their nominee. Trump fared better on the question than Ted Cruz (38 percent) and Marco Rubio (40 percent), but nonetheless, Republicans who did not vote for Trump would have trouble with him as their nominee by almost a 3:1 margin.

By contrast, 64 percent of New Hampshire Democrats would be happy with Hillary Clinton as their nominee, while 78 would be happy with Sanders.

Trump is not as strong as either Clinton or Sanders in his party, and that's a problem for The Donald.

8:47 P.M.

FiveThirtyEight's Jody Avirgan rushing to see the Kasich party.

8:46 P.M.

Update on the Republican race for second place -- 19 percent reporting (57 of 300 precincts).

Trump (34.6 percent), Kasich (15.9 percent) Cruz (11.6 percent), Bush (11.5 percent), Rubio (9.8 percent).

Cruz has risen to third place -- if he takes third in New Hampshire, that will almost be as big as Rubio's third place finish in Iowa.

Below the top five are still Christie (7.5 percent), Fiorina (4.3 percent), Carson (2.3 percent), and Gilmore (0.0 percent).

8:43 P.M.

According to the New York Times, Sanders beat Clinton in every demographic group, including women.

I guess a lot of people are going to hell.

8:38 P.M.

By the way, here is an article that could be considered PJ Media's response to the Huffington Post's hit piece on Donald Trump:

Trump is an unlikely fit for the Christian right in many ways. [He] has boasted about extramarital affairs, profited off of casinos and strip clubs, and said he doesn’t need to ask God for forgiveness.

Todd Littleton, a Southern Baptist pastor in Oklahoma, argued that Trump’s appeal comes from many evangelicals being “largely fearful people.” This may be true of Trump supporters, but evangelicals are more complicated. As Littleton later explained, “it’s an ironic move for a Christian person to be motivated by fear,” since “the very sacred text they say they believe actually says 'love casts out fear.'”

Conservative Christians are not driven by baseless fear, but reasonable suspicion. It is past time for pundits to acknowledge their viewpoints, rather than demonizing them.

8:33 P.M.

Second place battle dominating the GOP.

Trump's victory in New Hampshire, like Cruz's victory in Iowa, may be overshadowed by the second place finisher in the news.

8:29 P.M.

Race called for Trump, Sanders. But GOP second place is important. With 14 percent reporting (41 of 300 precincts):

Trump (33.9 percent), Kasich (16.2 percent), Bush (12.0 percent), Cruz (11.1 percent), Rubio (9.8 percent)

Perhaps the "establishment" branding hurt Rubio. As for other candidates still in the race:

Christie (7.9 percent), Fiorina (4.4 percent), Carson (2.2 percent), Gilmore (0.1 percent). Other (2.5 percent) beats Carson and Gilmore.

8:25 P.M.

Huffington Post was really, really ready for this.

Here's their editorial.

8:22 P.M.

Blue-collar voters #FeelTheBern.

8:21 P.M.

Sanders' strength is crazy:

And evangelical leader Russell Moore gets in this dig at Trump:

Trump is far from a lock for evangelical support -- see why here.

8:17 P.M.

Here's a New Hampshire Trump supporter, telling it like it is:

8:12 P.M.

Great analysis from FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver:

In some ways, tonight’s results reset the Republican race to where it was before Iowa.

Donald Trump is not invincible, but he has real supporters out there, and they’ll come out and vote, especially in states with high turnout. At the very least, Trump is a formidable candidate to win plenty of states and delegates unless there’s another candidate in the mix to stop him.

In states with lots of evangelical voters, that candidate could be Ted Cruz. But in other states, the answer is less obvious. Republican “party elites” are having trouble coordinating with themselves, and one another, on any of the alternatives.

Iowa set the Republican race back to normalcy, New Hampshire made it crazy again. Word is still out on the important number 2 slot, however.

8:10 P.M.

A victory in the New Hampshire primary has been important for Republicans and Democrats, pushing on toward their nomination.

This is "yuge" for Trump, as it confirms his momentum moving forward. The race for second place, however, is still on, and crucially important for the "establishment" wing of the party.

8:08 P.M.

Sanders crowd goes crazy at the Vermont Senator's official watch party.

8:07 P.M.

With only 6 percent (GOP) and 8 percent (Dem) reporting, New York Times also calls the race for Trump, Sanders.

Republicans: Trump (33.0 percent), Kasich (17.1 percent), Bush (11.9 percent), Rubio (10.4 percent), Cruz (10.1 percent)

Democrats: Sanders (52.7 percent), Clinton (40.1 percent)

Is it jumping the gun? We'll see...

8:04 P.M.

ABC News calls it for Sanders:

Associated Press agrees, says Trump also won.

8:02 P.M.

Bernie Sanders Promises:

7:56 P.M.

This is HUGE: Democrats in New Hampshire exit polls say they don't want more liberal policies.

And the obligatory dark humor:

7:51 P.M.

FiveThirtyEight's Farai Chideya hits on the (at least 3) varieties of populism driving what looks like a record turnout:

The record turnout we’re seeing is a result of the variety of populism that’s disrupting the race. We have socialist-leaning populism; nativist populism; a tough-talking but not-far-right Christie populism. We are awash in various messages that say it’s time to save the country from itself … and of course, some of these broadly speaking populist voters would hate the others’ positions.

Here's one more -- conservative Tea Party populism focused on Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

7:48 P.M.

New York Times results at 2 percent reporting (6 out of 300 precincts):

Republicans: Trump (34.5 percent), Kasich (14.2 percent), Bush (11.2 percent), Cruz (10.0 percent), Rubio (9.9 percent)

Democrats: Sanders (53.7 percent), Clinton (43.6 percent).

Remember -- this is just TWO PERCENT. But if the final results look like this, Rubio's in trouble.

7:45 P.M.

Ohio Governor John Kasich has found the secret to true shalom.

7:42 P.M.

So much voting, there's a traffic jam! Confirmed: voters stuck in traffic on their way to the polling place will be allowed to vote.

And The Supreme Court just blocked Obama's "Clean Power Plan"

7:37 P.M.

The one candidate who won't drop out, no matter what the results: Vermin Supreme. Bernie Sanders may offer free college, but this guy promises free ponies!

7:31 P.M.

Polls starting to close in New Hampshire -- it's important to note that some counties can keep their polling places open until 8:00 P.M.

And, FiveThirtyEight's polls-plus predictions.

7:26 P.M.

A Day to Remember.

7:24 P.M.

Who is most likely to drop out after New Hampshire results? FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver says Carly Fiorina. Ben Carson might drop, but he was more likely to do so after Iowa than after New Hampshire.

Primary Results - 3 percent reporting:

Republicans: Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, John Kasich tied for first with 24.3 percent. Chris Christie at 8.1 percent, Marco Rubio at 5.4 percent.

Democrats: Bernie Sanders at 60.7 percent, Hillary Clinton at 32.1 percent.

7:12 P.M.

Here's a little app by Harvard grad Milo Beckman which allows you to "roll the dice" and see headlines based on random results from the New Hampshire Primary.

New Hampshire Results Tool

New Hampshire Results Trump Less

7:08 P.M.

And more Republicans found the debates important to their votes.

And towns to watch, from FiveThirtyEight's Dave Wasserman:

In 2008, Clinton’s entire 7,589-vote statewide margin over Obama was attributable to just five heavily working-class towns: Manchester (the largest city), Nashua (the second-largest city), Salem (a suburb on the Massachusetts border), Rochester (a mill town on the Maine border) and Berlin (a mill town in the north country). If Clinton wants to keep things close with Sanders tonight, she’ll need to win these towns. If Sanders is winning them, it’ll be a sign that he has broken Clinton’s grip on working-class Democrats and is headed for a big victory.

Meanwhile, Obama’s five biggest margins in 2008 came from liberal, academic, stereotypically granola towns: Hanover (home to Dartmouth College), Keene (home to Keene State College), Durham (home to the University of New Hampshire), Concord (the capital) and Portsmouth (an artsy, high-income coastal city). If Clinton is winning at least 40 percent of the vote in any of these towns, it could be a good sign for her. But if Sanders is winning them by more than 2-to-1, we could be in for a “Bernie blizzard.”

7:06 P.M.

Horrible, yet so perfect.

And on a funnier note, Trump stands with calling Cruz a "p*ssy," as in the cat.

6:48 P.M.

46 percent of voters decided in the last few days...

6:45 P.M.

Images of the voting from Royal Capital, Ltd., a financial research firm:

And you've gotta love these photos:

6:43 P.M.

From FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver:

While our forecast models regard Donald Trump as the likely but hardly certain winner in the Republican race tonight — they give him, respectively, a 69 percent and 75 percent chance of winning New Hampshire — our forecasts don’t equivocate as much in the Democratic race. Instead, both our polls-plus and polls-only models give Bernie Sanders in excess of a 99 percent chance of winning.

Silver argues the Republican race is more fluid.

6:39 P.M.

From FiveThirtyEight - Many voters making decisions last minute

6:37 P.M.

Just a refresher -- this is still true, for the time being.

6:32 P.M.

From NBC: Exit polls show 42 percent of Republican primary voters considered themselves political independents, 39 percent of Democrats identified themselves this way. In 2008, more Democrats (44 percent) than Republicans (37 percent) identified as independents.

And this gem:

6:21 P.M.

Exit Polls are in!

From CNN: Republican voters are worried about the economy (75 percent) and terrorism (60 percent). 90 percent said they were dissatisfied with the federal government. Half said they felt betrayed by Republican politicians.

Democrats were also worried about the economy (75 percent), but were less likely to say they felt betrayed by their party. 40 percent said they thought life for the next generation would be worse than life today, and 90 percent said the economy favored the wealthy.

Only 25 percent of GOP primary voters said they were born again or evangelical Christians, and only 30 percent described themselves as "very conservative." Bad news for Texas Senator Ted Cruz and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, although not unexpected.