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Here's one reason why the Democratic Party "blue wave" may be more illusory than real.

Following the shooting at Parkland school, one analysis shows that youth registration has surged.

A new TargetSmart analysis of voter registration data in the 39 states with available data show that registration rates for voters aged 18-29 have significantly increased in key battleground states over the last seven months, presaging the increased impact youth voters may have on the upcoming midterm and presidential elections.

Using February 14, 2018, as a reference point ­­– the date on which the Parkland shooting happened, which spurred a youth-led movement to register young voters across the country — TargetSmart’s analysis found that the share of youth registrants nationwide has increased by 2.16 percent, a potentially impactful surge in youth enrollment. With more than a dozen states’ primaries still left and months until voter registration deadlines, the findings are an early quantitative sign that youth turnout is on the rise in this year’s midterm elections.

The state-by-state analysis shows that younger voters are poised to have an outsized impact in key battleground races. Pennsylvania – which has November elections for U.S. Senator, Governor, and many critical House races – saw youth voter registration surge by over 16 points after February 14, jumping from 45.2 percent to 61.4 percent of new registrants.

Other states with critical elections that may decide control of the U.S. Senate and House also showed large increases in youth registration, including Arizona (+8.2 point increase), Florida (+8), Virginia (+10.5), Indiana (+9.9), and New York (+10.7).

This spike in voter registration activity comes on the heels of the grassroots movement to address gun violence issues.

I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp. Every midterm election, Democrats tout huge voter registration gains among blacks, Hispanics, the youth, single women, etc.

Lo and behold, on election day, they don't show up to vote.

Maybe some election, they will. But until those registration numbers translate into actual political power, I'l stick with history and expect little change in turnout among those groups.