GOP Base Isn't Down with the Rubio-Schumer Bill

On Monday I wrote a warning to Republicans considering supporting the Schumio immigration bill: Vote for it and kiss your base good-bye. Today we get some data to back that up, from National Journal.

A sizable plurality of registered GOP voters say they will be less likely to support their incumbent lawmaker if he or she votes for immigration reform that includes a pathway to citizenship for those currently living illegally in the United States, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. The findings show that even as national Republican leaders tout the Senate's reform measure as a political necessity for the party, it remains a risky vote for individual GOP lawmakers wary of a primary challenger.

Among all adults surveyed, immigration is something of a moot issue: 42 percent of them said a vote either for or against immigration reform would not greatly affect their support for their senator or representative. Thirty-three percent said it would make them less likely to support him or her, and 21 percent said such a vote would make them more likely to back the incumbent.

But among Republicans, the issue elicits much more passion, none of it good for immigration-reform advocates within the GOP. Nearly half, 49 percent, said lawmakers who back a proposal offering a pathway to citizenship will lose their support. Only 15 percent said it would make them more likely to back their incumbent; 30 percent said it would not make a difference in their vote. (emphasis added)

Blue-collar whites -- some of whom were the "Reagan Democrats" -- would be hurt the most by the influx of cheap and now legalized labor, and as expected, they're the most opposed to legalizing those workers. Pitted against them are upscale Republicans in the urban areas who tend to be embarrassed by the party's rural base. Those upscale Republicans are more receptive to the Schumio scheme.

Republicans flirting with Schumio are hoping to keep their unhappy base while attracting more Hispanic votes. In the end, if that bill passes, they will get neither. They will have fractured the base while there is no evidence that passing the bill earns them even a single new Hispanic vote.

h/t Hot Air