Cracks Begin to Show in the Iranian Regime
There are two deciding factors in whether the Green Revolution will reverse the travesty of the Islamic Revolution of 1979: the emotion of the Revolutionary Guards personnel that are the regime's last line of defense, and the people's willingness to march onto the government buildings that the regime operates from. For the most part, the demonstrations have been limited to public squares and universities. There have been reports of protesters overtaking police stations and attacking Basiji outposts, but if they march closer to government offices, forcing the regime's leaders to flee or fill the streets with blood, what will the Revolutionary Guards do? Will they be able to hold their ranks together and massacre innocents who look like their sons and daughters for the sake of a regime that has brought nothing but misery and isolation to them?
This elite security force consists of some highly devoted operatives who have engaged in terrorism and torture again and again, yet there are also those who joined for the job security and benefits it provides when most are in despair because of the dire economic situation. Others surely have joined and have had a change of heart since being exposed to the inner workings of the brutality machine known as the state security forces. However, there will remain a portion who are attracted to that very brutality.
Should the Iranian regime launch a Tiananmen Square redux, there will undoubtedly be major defections from the Revolutionary Guards, but will there be enough discord to allow for forces to dissolve and for the masses to overwhelm their attackers? It doesn't take many evil people with weapons to create an impenetrable wall of gunfire, especially if they shoot from inside and on top of buildings and behind large barricades, but cracks are starting to show in the regime that may prove fatal.
Recognizing that the local Basiji, Ansar Hezbollah, police, and army cannot be counted upon to stop the masses in Tehran, Ayatollah Khamenei has reportedly put the Revolutionary Guards in charge of security for the capital city. One member of the security forces was asked by the Los Angeles Times how he'd react to such orders. He said that he and many others at his base supported the demonstrators and stated, "I would never do it. ... I would never fire on any of these people myself."
There are believable rumors on Twitter, the main battleground in the information war right now, that local police have been seen arresting violent Basiji members -- and some of the militiamen even laying down their arms. Others are fearfully covering their faces so they can't be identified.