Huge Losses for Dems in the South; GOP Surges in Midwest

A few liberal media talking heads are saying today that the Republicans fell short  yesterday, since the Democrats held onto control of  the Senate. This summary of what happened reminds me of the old joke about the match race during the Cold War between a Russian horse and an American horse. The American horse wins the race easily, and in the next day’s Pravda, the headline is: “Russian horse second, American horse next to last.”

Yes, the Democrats survived and appear to have lost “only” six Senate seats, while losing as many as 65 House seats (and control of the House) and many important governor's races. That is a big victory for Republicans and conservatives. That said, here are my conclusions from the outcomes across the country.

1. The GOP slaughtered the Democrats in the South.  Most of the Blue Dogs in the House, whether they voted for the health care bill or against it, went down. In the states that will gain House seats due to the 2010 census numbers, the GOP had big wins in the governor's races in Florida, Georgia  and Texas, and Republicans appear to have taken control of the state legislature in North Carolina.

2. After an  Obama sweep of the Midwest in 2008 (Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (they are in the Big Ten after all), the GOP found its footing and made major gains in the region. States in the Midwest  are often the decisive swing states in close presidential races, and the GOP performance yesterday in the region augurs well for the 2012 campaign, probably beginning as I write this.

Democrats appear to have held onto the governorship  in Illinois and won the governor’s race in Minnesota, each by less than 1%. But the GOP picked up governorships in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin, and won an open Senate seat by a big margin in Indiana. GOP House gains were enormous in the Midwest, especially in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois.

Illinois, which had become a deep blue state in recent cycles, now has a U.S. House delegation that favors Republicans by 11-8.  The GOP gains in state houses and legislatures will be important in Congressional redistricting since these states will, in many cases, lose House seats when district lines are redrawn.

3. A few of the candidates most strongly identified with the Tea Party  had a bad night in key competitive Senate races.   Talk radio hosts like Mark Levin had trumpeted Christine O'Donnell, Joe Miller, Ken Buck, and Sharron Angle. At times they had been verbally abusive towards those who argued that some of these candidates were far less electable than the candidates they beat in the GOP primaries.

O'Donnell was beaten by 17%, and Sharron Angle lost by 6% to Harry Reid in a state with 14% unemployment and with Reid sporting the lowest approval ratings of his career. Ken Buck lost in Colorado by a few points, and in Alaska, Joe Miller trails write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski by over 5%, a lead that might hold up, even after badly spelled Murkowski ballots are disqualified.

Each of the four Republican candidates damaged their chances by allowing themselves to become the issue, rather than having their campaigns focus like a laser on the Obama/Pelosi/Reid fiscal disaster in Washington. On the other hand, GOP Senate candidates with little or no baggage and very focused campaigns picked up Senate seats in very hard-fought contests in Illinois and  Pennsylvania. They also won big victories in Ohio, Arkansas, North Dakota, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, Indiana, and Wisconsin.

The Tea Party had a big role in some of these victories, especially in Wisconsin for Ron Johnson, and in Florida for Marco Rubio. The Tea Party candidates who lost seemed not quite ready for prime time. Odd personal histories, attacks on homosexuality, and prior policy statements that were hard to explain all proved pretty damaging. In New York State, no GOP candidate was likely  to win the Senate or governor's races this year, but the candidates nominated in the primaries were so weak and problematic that it cost the GOP some House seats down-ballot. Weirdness, it seems,  is not a path to statewide  electoral victories.