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A Pre-Election Day Prediction: Massachusetts Will Retire Barney Frank

I can cite an example of such an event in this race. The Obama administration has mouthed support for Israel but has taken actions inconsistent with the supportive statements. Obama clearly shows an attitude of flaccid support of Israel and instituted policies that increase the existential danger to Israel. Barney Frank represents himself as a supporter of Israel, but his statement during the Gaza flotilla incident caused many Jews to doubt his sincerity. Frank has not been proactive.

A record number of AIPAC members, over one thousand, attended its dinner in Boston this year. That is an objective indication of the level of fear in the Jewish community. Barney Frank gave a short statement in which he assured the audience that if there is a crisis, the audience could count on him. Frank’s statement showed a devastating lack of understanding of the issue. If there is a crisis in the Middle East, it will be too late. Frank was greeted by a wall of coldness: members walked out to show their displeasure. Frank’s body language and the tone of his statement were uncertain. In the several events I attended in which there was a substantial Jewish audience, Bielat’s announcement that “I am Sean Bielat and I am running against Barney Frank” was greeted by unusually loud and enthusiastic applause. AIPAC members define the term "opinion makers."

That reaction means that Frank will not get the 75% of the Jewish vote enjoyed by Obama. In addition, the recent polling of Jews showed that a significant percentage of Jews have finally begun to open their minds to the fact that the world has changed for Jews and for Israel and that the mistakes of the 1930s must not be repeated.

Combine the loss of a percentage of the Jewish vote with the unemployment rate in the southern portion of the Fourth and the basis of the gerrymander has been fractured. Massachusetts will send another Republican to Congress and another Democratic politician to the Kennedy School of Government.