5 Reasons Congress Must Reject Obama’s Iran Deal
2. Iran’s prize is more realistically $700 billion from sanctions relief
Much attention has been paid to the financial boon that Iran will reap once sanctions are lifted. But former Israeli ambassador Michael Oren contends that the commonly sited $150 billion is substantially less than what the real windfall will be for the world’s most prolific state sponsor of terrorism. According to Israeli government sources, the amount is closer to $700 billion, he says.
Sanctions expert Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies says Iran will use some of the money to immunize its economy against any economic or inspection pressure, again making military force the only viable option to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Democratic Senator Bob Menendez expects that the Iranian government “will use a significant percentage of this payout to foment instability and violent extremism across the Middle East… regardless of whether there is a nuclear deal, and we must take steps urgently to formulate a strategy that pushes back and counters Iranian terrorism.”
Even the White House said we should expect that some of the restored funds will be used by Iran to continue waging jihad the Shi’ite way.
While no one but the ayatollah himself knows how much Iran spends advancing Islamist jihad and terrorism across the globe, numerous sources contend it’s at least in the tens of billions. According to Der Spiegel, no less than $9 billion has been spent since 2011 supporting the Syrian terror regime alone. Sources listed in Eli Lake’s Bloomberg article put the number much higher at $6 billion annually given to prop up Assad.
As for more radical terror organizations, Iran supported Hamas to the tune of several hundred million dollars between 2006-2008 as I documented here. More recently, Con Coughlin on the Wall Street Journal showed that in the first few months of this year (while Obama was assuring the world that this was a good deal), Iran sent tens of millions to Hamas in renewed ties. Regarding Hezbollah, Iran’s suicide army in Lebanon, Western diplomats and analysts in Lebanon estimate Hezbollah receives close to $200 million a year from Iran.
Currently Iran’s economy is in shambles because of the long years of crippling sanctions, and yet the mullahs have not hesitated to pump billions into their efforts to establish an Iran-led global caliphate. It doesn’t take a Persian nuclear rocket scientist to figure out that we can expect a significant increase in jihad once the funds start to flow.
3. Snapback sanctions are a moot fantasy
In April, Obama made clear that "if Iran violates the deal, sanctions can be snapped back into place." Although the agreement details the process of these snapback sanctions, it turns out they actually cannot be immediately or even quickly snapped back.
The convoluted process outlined in the agreement for sanctions to be imposed will likely take much longer than 24 days -- more likely at least two months and possibly many more. And even these might be optimistic estimates as the agreement is complex enough to make defining and determining a violation difficult if not impossible. We would do well to remember that the game of chess began in Persia and thinking many moves ahead is still an Iranian specialty.
Additionally, the current U.S. sanctions are slated to expire next year. Unless renewed, as Senator Menendez said this week in Senate hearings on the deal, "there is nothing in that context to snap back to."
On top of that, Iran has its own snappy provision in the deal. If Iranian officials believe that sanctions were for any reason unfairly reinstated, the Islamic Republic can legitimately start enriching uranium without limits.
Iran knows that once the gates are open and multinational corporations and eager nations from around the world jump to secure commercial deals with them, the sanctions regime is basically over. The nuclear agreement allows all contracts secured prior to any sanctions reinstatement to continue in full force.
4. The nuclear arms race in the Middle East has already started
Kerry is “absolutely convinced” that the “threat of other countries going for a weapon in the Middle East is greatest if you don't have the deal [rather] than if you do."
It seems Kerry has been much more than “bamboozled.” The race has already started thanks to the administration’s efforts with Iran. Saudi Arabia has already signed a $12 billion deal with France for two highly modernized nuclear reactors. The Saudis are also reaching out to Russia and South Korea to ensure they’re not left behind their Shi’ite nemesis in the quest for regional hegemony.
The other powerhouse of the region, Egypt, announced just days before the Iran agreement was inked in Vienna that it will establish an advanced technical school in the field of peaceful nuclear power.
But the contagion may not be limited only to Iran’s foes. PJ Media's own Victor David Hanson from Stanford’s Hoover Institution ponders that because of the Iran deal, the nuclear arms race may break out beyond the borders of the Middle East:
The cost of giving into Greece is hundreds of millions of euros; giving into Iran will involve blood rather than money. Perhaps if Greece just had a few thousand spinning centrifuges, it might have been bailed out more quickly by terrified Westerners.
Pandora’s nuclear box has been opened and if this agreement is allowed to go forward with America’s approval, going nuclear may be considered the new geopolitical roadmap for nations seeking international concessions or hegemony. A U.S.-approved deal sends the unequivocal message that unless you are a rogue nuclear nation, you’re not going to get the payoffs, U.S. protection and privileges Obama just afforded the Iranians.