Uncertainty Continues Regarding Isaac’s Track, Intensity
Major uncertainty also remains about Isaac’s intensity. While the computer models insist on this storm blowing up into a major hurricane, Isaac is thus far being uncooperative. Observations from a recon plane indicate the storm has yet to begin strengthening since popping off the Cuban coast. Will it start soon, as expected? Perhaps, but Isaac has consistently failed to live up to the models’ expectations thus far, in terms of intensity. Maybe that will continue. We can hope.
Sunday will be a huge day in Isaac’s history, both in terms of “facts on the ground” (or in the atmosphere, I suppose) with respect to its real-time development, and in terms of the forecast models. I’ll be watching closely, tweeting, and blogging a few times during the day, as often as I can. That said, you can also view some of the raw data yourself. Here’s a timeline of events to watch (all times Eastern). I’ve put double asterisks (**) next to the particularly important events. The model links will be broken until the event occurs, or begins to occur.
5:00 AM: Full NHC advisory, discussion & forecast**
6:00 AM: GFS 06z run**
7:30 AM: HWRF 06z run
7:45 AM: GFDL 06z run
8:00 AM: Intermediate NHC advisory
11:00 AM: Full NHC advisory, discussion & forecast**
12:00 noon: GFS 12z run**
1:30 PM: HWRF 12z run
1:45 PM: GFDL 12z run
2:00 PM: Intermediate NHC advisory
2:10 PM: ECMWF (Euro) 12z run**
5:00 PM: Full NHC advisory, discussion & forecast**
6:00 PM: GFS 18z run**
7:30 PM: HWRF 18z run
7:45 PM: GFDL 18z run
8:00 PM: Intermediate NHC advisory
11:00 PM: Full NHC advisory, discussion & forecast**
12:00 midnight (Monday): GFS 00z run**
1:30 AM: HWRF 00z run
1:45 AM: GFDL 00z run
2:00 AM: Intermediate NHC advisory
2:10 AM: ECMWF (Euro) 00z run**
Other links to watch:
Wide View Water Vapor Loop (helpful for viewing steering currents)
This time there will be a double whammy if NO gets hit. One deep impact on the federal response to Katrina was the Labor Day holiday. By the time the Gulf Coast dug out, the regional rescue/assistance had handled the immediate crisis and the extent of the longer term needs were becoming apparent, DC was on holiday most going on leave that Thursday/Friday for a long holiday.
It was just near impossible to get anyone outside the disaster to grasp the extent. It didn’t help the media was going on and on about New Orleans. In any case, by the time Bush issued the call to arms on Thursday the feddies were all on vacation. On Tuesday when they returned to work, they hit the ground in a panic with edicts and demands to those of us in the mud. Real assistance came a couple days later.
This time, there is Labor Day vacation and the Democratic Convention party. If disaster strikes, keep an eye on the missing federal officials and their impact. Of course, it may not happen that way this time but this is the last big vacation before the fall “staff season” in DC and the big party/battle of the election so my bet is on neglect….again
I find it hard to imagine that with an election coming up that the Feds would drop the ball. Nor do I see Bobby Jundal taking his eyes off the ball for a moment. It will interesting to see the press try to make hay out of the storm.
The response time by the feds will be worse but theres a democrat in the white house so the media will ignore the delays.
Whatever happens this time, the media will not in any way blame the President for any of the fed’s failures, real or imagined.