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Weather Nerd

Uncertainty Continues Regarding Isaac’s Track, Intensity

August 26th, 2012 - 12:16 am

Major uncertainty also remains about Isaac’s intensity. While the computer models insist on this storm blowing up into a major hurricane, Isaac is thus far being uncooperative. Observations from a recon plane indicate the storm has yet to begin strengthening since popping off the Cuban coast. Will it start soon, as expected? Perhaps, but Isaac has consistently failed to live up to the models’ expectations thus far, in terms of intensity. Maybe that will continue. We can hope.

Sunday will be a huge day in Isaac’s history, both in terms of “facts on the ground” (or in the atmosphere, I suppose) with respect to its real-time development, and in terms of the forecast models. I’ll be watching closely, tweeting, and blogging a few times during the day, as often as I can. That said, you can also view some of the raw data yourself. Here’s a timeline of events to watch (all times Eastern). I’ve put double asterisks (**) next to the particularly important events. The model links will be broken until the event occurs, or begins to occur.

5:00 AM: Full NHC advisory, discussion & forecast**

6:00 AM: GFS 06z run**

7:30 AM: HWRF 06z run

7:45 AM: GFDL 06z run

8:00 AM: Intermediate NHC advisory

11:00 AM: Full NHC advisory, discussion & forecast**

12:00 noon: GFS 12z run**

1:30 PM: HWRF 12z run

1:45 PM: GFDL 12z run

2:00 PM: Intermediate NHC advisory

2:10 PM: ECMWF (Euro) 12z run**

5:00 PM: Full NHC advisory, discussion & forecast**

6:00 PM: GFS 18z run**

7:30 PM: HWRF 18z run

7:45 PM: GFDL 18z run

8:00 PM: Intermediate NHC advisory

11:00 PM: Full NHC advisory, discussion & forecast**

12:00 midnight (Monday): GFS 00z run**

1:30 AM: HWRF 00z run

1:45 AM: GFDL 00z run

2:00 AM: Intermediate NHC advisory

2:10 AM: ECMWF (Euro) 00z run**

Other links to watch:

Satellite views of Isaac

Wide View Water Vapor Loop (helpful for viewing steering currents)

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