New Orleans Under Hurricane Warning, But Will “Shelter In Place”
All in all, I’d describe it as an epic municipal clusterf*** rivaling the run-up to Katrina in 2005. But again, maybe I’m wrong. Maybe someone can tell me why that’s so. For the moment, I’m very concerned that the New Orleans government is again revealing itself to be completely incompetent and not up to the task — and is making itself dependent on the vagaries of atmospheric fate. In other words, Landrieu had better hope he’s lucky, and the storm goes elsewhere (which it may), or doesn’t get as strong as it clearly could (but might not). Landrieu paid lip service to the idea of “preparing for the worst” — but, categorically, he is not advising his residents to do that. He’s advising them to prepare for a mid-range scenario, not the best case but certainly not the realistic worst case.
As a reminder of that worst case, here’s a quartet of computer model maps, showing the forecasts by four of the most reliable models. Both the GFS (top right) and the HWRF (bottom left) would be very bad for New Orleans.
I want to emphasize two things again. First, I am not predicting a New Orleans landfall, or a major-hurricane landfall, or anything else. I am not “predicting” anything. I am calling attention to, and hopefully providing some context for, various forecasts and scenarios. I acknowledge that Isaac may well hit a location other than New Orleans, and/or may well not strengthen as much as some of the models forecast (or it could strengthen and then weaken at the last minute, like Katrina did). I say all this because I’m acutely aware that, if the worst-case scenario doesn’t happen, the “OMG OVERHYPED!!!” trolls will come out of the woodwork, arguing that the non-occurrence of the worst case somehow proves that “Landrieu was right,” and preparing for the worst was never a good idea. Of course that’s nonsense — no one is saying the New Orleans nightmare will definitely happen. The point is that we don’t know, and can’t know, what will happen at this point, so the only prudent thing to do is to prepare for the realistic worst case. Landrieu himself acknowledged that principle, but then utterly failed to follow through, in my opinion.
The second point I want to emphasize is that I don’t mean to suggest a New Orleans landfall is the only scenario that “matters.” There are plenty of other places that could be adversely affected by Isaac, and folks in those places should all be appropriately preparing too. The reason I focus on New Orleans is that while most other scenarios would be “ordinary” hurricane landfalls — though a Mobile Bay hit would be a pretty epic flood in its own right — a direct hit on New Orleans, particularly if preceded by no evacuation or an inadequate evacuation, could be uniquely devastating, indeed potentially far worse than Katrina (which was not that strong in New Orleans; it only became a calamity because of Army Corps of Engineers failures). Please don’t quote that as a prediction that “Isaac will be worse than Katrina!!!1!”; I’m just saying the possibility exists for a worst-case storm, someday, to be substantially worse, which is why a New Orleans threat will always swamp other scenarios in terms of newsworthiness. But if the New Orleans threat eventually diminishes and the focus rightly turns to the storm’s ultimate target, I will certainly say more about that place, wherever it is. In the mean time, everyone in a watch or warning zone on the map above should prepare appropriately.
P.S. Hot off the presses as I publish this, the new, 18Z GFS model:
No relief from the GFS. Still a disaster scenario for the Big Easy. In fact, that track is slightly closer to New Orleans than the previous one, arresting, at least for now, a somewhat hopeful westward trend that seemed like it might take Issac toward the less populated Texas-Louisiana border area.
Thank you for this post. I have no direct personal connection to New Orleans–and yet, watching Landrieu speak, I literally felt a chill. I felt like I’d slipped into some nightmare alternative reality. I know evacuations have their own risks and costs, but I couldn’t believe he wasn’t even *mentioning* evacuation. Please keep posting.
BTW, your Twitter account is acting strange. I can’t always see recent messages, and I can’t load more than one screen’s worth.
Those in low lying areas will evacuate, specially those below New Orleans in Plaquemine and St. Bernard parishs.
During Katrina the levees that were in New Orleans were those on the Lake side of the city. The 9th and lower 9th ward are on the low end of New Orleans and have flooded many times, New Orleans East resides on property that should have never been developed.
Since Katrina contractors have been working on the Lake Pontchatrain flood gates so that water will not overflow on those canals. They should be in better shape.
The worst case scenario would be a storm that hits just to the west of New Orleans and come straight and then veers east. It would probably dump the lake onto the city.
As a former lifelong resident on New Orleans (currently in Northeast LA), I agree with you that there seems to be an almost complete lack of urgency being demonstrated by both the officials and the residents. This is truly the “City That Care Forgot.”
Although Katrina looms fairly large in people’s memories, New Orleanians have ridden out many storms without incident before, and some feel “burned” by dire predictions in the past that ended up amounting to little more than some prolonged rainstorms. It’s almost something that is embedded in the cultural DNA of the city, almost a “who-gives-a-f–k” state of mind. And it persists, despite the relatively recent pictures of bodies floating in the water barbaric chaos at the Dome and Convention Center.
It would have been great for Mitch to at least gently suggest to people to start heading out of town, but it is what it is. One can only hope that the models will push a little more to the west.
Probably because the weather service is expecting it to make Cat 2 just before landfall. Nasty weather, but I’ve driven through worse.
Guessing wrong either way is a disaster, granted with much less loss of life if they err on the side of evacuating. Still, shutting a city down for a couple of days is a nasty knock for the local economy, and it makes it look like you’re crying wolf the next time. That being the reason so many stayed for Katrina, as you’ll recall. Hell, folks were complaining about that after Gustave, which jogged west about 12 hours out & trashed Baton Rouge instead.
You weather guys crack me up. This thing even missed Key West – by a mile.
I bet this thing does not even make it to the USA – landfall in mexico as at TS.
The safest place to be is where you weather dudes predict the path.
Clueless.
Hysterically clueless.
NOLA is just a stupid concept for those of us that understand geography.
Mid-level scenario. What does this mean? What does such prep amount to, there?
Though Jindal said (mostly) the right things by your account, he needs to over-ride the Mayor and evacuate (or evacuate at least the most vulnerable) right now from New Orleans.
BTW, you mentioned the other day that no credible model had Isaac going west of Mobile. Now, does that mean that no models are credible?
Haven’t seen recent statistics, but I’m pretty sure NOLA is still at about half the pre-Katrina population. So pre-Katrina estimates of the time it will take to evacuate probably significantly overstate the amount of time it will take now. It still makes sense to evac now if you can — I’d much rather be headed up I-10 at 60 mph now than inching along during a mandatory evac tomorrow with a ‘cane behind me. And if you go now, you don’t have to go as far, because the nearer hotels won’t be full yet.
The New Orleans contraflow evacuation pattern calls for 30 hours of flow required before TS force winds hit the city. Some models show Isaac off the mouth of the river by Tuesday morning. Subtract 30 hours from that, and you get midnight tonight. Either he’s planning on pulling the trigger in the middle of the night (can you imagine the mayhem?), or he’s literally gambling with the lives the citizens that the models are wrong. Lots of “feel good” and no action. Welcome to Nagin – The Remake.
Show how Obama makes a “gutsy call” to FEMA and save the day?
Don’t forget, the Katrina disaster was way overblown by the Media, 40,000 dead, Superdome rapes in plain sight (by young black men, of course), shootings from rooftops (by young black men, of course)… Bush don’t like Black people.
This time, they only have to report the truth even if Isaac is as bad as Katrina, Obama would come out ahead.
NOLA was NOT hit with a Cat 5. Katrina was a Cat 4-5 but it did not HIT by Katrina. Max winds around 80K.
What HIT NOLA was the Corpse of Engineers and the political graph that is LA. And the stupidity of the people.
Lester, New Orleans makes perfect geographic sense. We’re about as far upriver as is economically feasible to bring an ocean-going cargo ship, and about as far downriver as you can safely build a skyscraper. Until the Old River Control Structure fails & dumps the Mississippi into the Atchafalaya basin, America in general, and the midwest in particular, needs New Orleans right where it is.
It’s not just Nagin, it’s the Democratic Party of the state of Louisiana. Which is why Shreveport would sometimes express a desire to secede and join Texas.
One other consideration -
Katrina was a “perfect storm” not just in the sense of intensity and location, but the next morning, after the storm had blown through, a levee failed due to faulty construction. IOW, the whole mess would have been a lot less of a mess had the contractor not cheaped out on materials.
This storm is likely not as powerful as Katrina, and is likely to pass further to the east, but how well the city holds up has as much to do with how well they have managed the levee reconstruction as meteorology. We’ll see.
If a major disaster happens, how many people do you think will accuse President Obama of hating black people?
Now that you’re done laughing, it’s quite ironic how history repeats itself in so many ways.
As said in previous post, better and actual expert information about Hurricane Isaac can be found here (http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/) and here (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) than the Obama-loving Brendan Loy.
Why does PJ Media use Loy? He’s not an expert and he supports the crazy global warming Democrat-Soros nutjobs like Jeff Masters and Joe Romm.
Tell PJ Media you want a real weather expert who also supports conservative, small government, Tea Party type of candidates.
Cybrludite, I don’t believe you, but even if it was so that does not account for a city of millions of people. A seaport of a few thousand, maybe. What does Tulane have to do with shipping, for example.
Brendan Loy is a tool, my redneck buddies down here know ten times as much.
“All in all, I’d describe it as an epic municipal clusterf***”
That describes New Orleans precisely. Why should this be any different?
If you compare the actual track of Isaac against the predicted paths I think that if I lived in Cancun I’d be worried.
One should not allow Yankees to predict hurricanes. another #foxnewsfail – when it comes to science and geography Fox is a dud.
If Bobby Jindal wasn’t governor, that state would be junk.
Cybrludite, I don’t believe you, but even if it was so that does not account for a city of millions of people. A seaport of a few thousand, maybe. What does Tulane have to do with shipping, for example.
Or, maybe, Nandie, we’ll just stick with the interesting, fun-to-read, easy-to-understand Brendan Loy. Who cares who he votes for? Or supports? Does that change his read of the situation? –from a conservative, small government, Tea Party type of gal
How ironic that Obama could be getting his very own Katrina, but that the blame from the MSM would inevitably go to the highest-ranking Republican, i.e., Gov. Bobby Jindal. I certainly would not expect anything positive from the Feds, given how badly the Obama administration has fouled up everything it has touched.
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
Some of us can remember the past – and we hope those (also like us) who’d rather not remember…do.
(We’re now out of direct cone, but still under warnings – and we ARE taking them seriously.)
Cybrludite,
If you are correct then we’ve found the one place where high speed rail makes sense. Just have the port and other businesses in what is now New Orleans, no one lives there, everyone commutes in via HSR then back to high ground for sleeping and recreation.
But you do skip over that the traits you list worked for a 19th century city and river transport of goods from the central US. But we now have ways to move goods without having a city underwater.
@Nandie – A couple things. First, what does being small (or medium or big) government have to do with whether or not this hurricane is likely to be bad news for New Orleans? If you have to inject your political agenda into EVERYTHING around you, then I’d say that you sir/madam have a problem.
“Oh my gosh it rained today, damn those Democrats/Republicans/Libertarians/etc.!”
Gimme a break.
Speaking of politcal agenda, global warming is real. Not because Al Gore says so, but because it is. Its not real because Democrats believe in it and Republicans don’t. It just is. Now you can continue to believe airheads like Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity on the science of Global Warming, or you can believe, the overwhelming majority (nearly all) and mountains of evidence. Ask yourself a question, if you needed medical advice about trying to prevent a heart attack would you listen to cardiologists or a drug addicted radio talk show host. If you said cardioligist then, congratulations, you aren’t a moron, and you should likewise do the same for global warming. If you said radio talk show host, then God help you if you ever have a heart condition.
Also, dear people of New Orleans, please evacuate now rather than later. If you left and nothing horrible happened, thats not so bad. If you didn’t and something horrible happens, thats a tragedy.
If the flooded parts of NOLA were left flooded after Katrina then there would have been plenty of dry land for a seaport. Plenty.
Whenever the question of “over-hyping” comes up, I like to use the analogy of Russian Roulette. With a six-shot revolver and one live round, it is “unlikely” that you’ll kill yourself with one shot. That doesn’t make it the smart thing to do.
NOLA has a particular vulnerability due to the fact that so much of it is below sea level, and further below the level of the Mississippi and Lake Pontchartrain. What concerns me about the geography is that you don’t need a direct hit to cause huge problems: With the current forecast track, the counter-clockwise flow of the storm will push a lot of Gulf water up into the lake, and also try to push the lake into the river and the river into the city. It’s a recipe for disaster.
Keryn,
“Who cares who he votes for?” Then maybe you can explain why PJ Media even exists.
‘PJ’ is the alternative to the mainstream press, which exclusively votes left-liberal. ‘PJ’ has become the brand for internet alternative conservative/libertarian news, yet for some reason they push Loy who is an advocate of left-liberal-Soros candidates.
There is only one reason Loy is pushed by ‘PJ’ and it has nothing to do with his expertise and his weather/climate explanations. (Okay, it has to do with ‘PJ’ cronyism, which you might not be aware of. It’s the same style of individual cronyism that ‘PJ’ loves to criticize Obama about.)
Bredan Loy is not a conservative, is not a libertarian, is not a Republican, is not an independent, is not a hurricane expert and definitely is not a climate/weather expert. Think about it…so why is he pushed by ‘PJ’ then? Okay, cronyism is the answer, DOH.
So, with all that said, I care about who Brendan Loy votes for. A ‘PJ’ blogger should avidly support the overall ‘PJ’ political brand and objective. If said ‘PJ’ blogger does not, then why should I (or others) support ‘PJ’ media with a monthly subscription fee – it’s as simple as that.
‘PJ’ has a potentially viable media business model, so why ruin it with lefty bloggers who are not even experts in the field they blog about? Again, there is only one reason that Loy remains with Pajamas Media, and it’s not because he’s an expert or is really popular on his own.
And regardless of my opinion, one can still get better hurricane, weather and climate information from here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com, and what the heck, from Obama’s own http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Finally, ‘PJ’ Media can do better, a lot better and they should. (Sorry, Glenn.)
Nandie 17: Your first “better and actual expert information” link seems to agree with Keryn 23; his post links back here, to Brendan Loy.
Why do all of you come on this man’s blog to post all your negative bs? We know he’s not a weather expert! However he has proven his competence over and over. I’ve been a loyal follower of his since Katrina and he is who I look to for info. whenever there is a hurricane looming and yes I am a Louisiana resident..
Um, lester, where is this city of millions you’re talking about? Houston? The whole state of Louisiana has only has about 5 million people; NOLA _before_ Katrina was about a half-million.
But still, a voluntary evacuation should have been called. Got to save the smart ones. (The REALLY smart ones are on the way out of town now.)
Couple of things that need to be clarified:
First, Katrina’s eye came ashore around Biloxi, MS, where the NE quadrant of winds, storm surge and destruction occurred; New Orleans was a self-inflicted wound. Lake Ponchatrane overflowed into faulty levee channels when the storm winds clocked around out of the north. Add to that the criminally negligent city government and a belligerent population that wouldn’t have evacuated if Bentleys were used, and you got the anarchy that was New Orleans. Secondly, in 2008 Louisiana did a embark able job evacuating over 40,000 if it’s residents to surrounding states without the mess that happened going to Houston pre Katrina”. Gustav was a C2 and it mainly flooded the southern parishes and downed thousands of trees. Isaac, it seems to me, would be more comparable to Gustav than Katrina due to its disorganization and relatively low intensity, for now at least.
How many of you actually live here? Landrieu hinted evacs were coming tomorrow if they keep pushing the track west, but frankly the NHC doesn’t know where the storm will hit or how strong the storm will be as of now. You cannot evacuate the whole gulf coast from Mobile to Morgan City. Its not like we all have our heads up our asses. The news has been “Isaac” on every channel in New Orleans since 7am today and we all know the next big update is 10PM CST and 4AM CST. Landrieu made clear there is no shelter of last resort in New Orleans and if people ignore that they do so at their own peril. The city has done a great job of broadcasting that they have a huge system in place to get people out that need help and how to sign up and they have promoted that for years. The people here are aware and we know the drill. If its a Cat 1 or 2 most stay put, stock in the supplies and fire up the generator. Katrina was no big deal UNTIL THE LEVEES FAILED. This storm is not and should not be confused with a major Hurricane. If the levees fail again, we should shoot the Corps of Engineers and the contractors who have been working for 7 years to improve the system. Relax – if the models change at 10 or 4, we’ll leave.
I have been hearing from my Left-o-center friends a lot of guff about Issac being a judgement on the Republican Party.
Just what are they going to say if we get a Katrina II, in Nawlins, so we have a direct Obama to Bush performance comparison?
It’s Bush’s fault?!?
PJM, why oh why do you bring Mr. Loy to copy and paste NWS/ NOAA charts and op-ed weather events again this hurricane, fall-winter season?
Mr. Loy provides no in-depth meteorological information. Other than the aforementioned predictions from REAL met field types.
You’re better than this!
How many times will the people of that city need to metaphorically bleed to death before they stop believing such bullshit?
Points taken, Nandie.
BTW, does anyone know the real reason why Brendon Loy is a blogger at Pajama? I did check, and he’s no weather, climate or hurricane expert.
Geez, a little transparency from PJMedia would be nice to clarify why B.Loy is the go-to guy for climate-weather, don’t ya think.
In the meantime, has he really voted for Obama and approved of the global warming b.s. and the likes of global warming fanatic Jeff masters?
It would be a real tragedy if New Orleans were struck and the failure of those in power to order evacuations NOW is to endanger the lives of many.
Brendan Loy: Thank you very much for your efforts in posting such an informative blog. I get more reasonable information from reading your posts than I gather from some weather sites. I appreciate your disclaimers and am able to discern that your comments about ‘worse-case scenarios’ are not meant as official warnings from an expert. I’m very disappointed after reading many of the comments that people are not more appreciative of people like you who are trying to do their best for their fellow man. It’s really as simple as that– and I see no benefit from those who comment about politics, global warming, Mel Blanc, or whatever. There are more appropriate times and places for such as that. Some people simply have no discernment, intelligence, or common decency.
Look at this “storm” on KEYW radar. It has no bottom. There is nothing below the “center” of rotation. I have gone through many hurricanes and they are no joke. But the hysteria over this one is something to behold.
@ GaryM
As I recall, Brendon Loy made several remarkably well-informed blog posts about hurricane effects and predictions pre-Katrina (I believe, it could have been an earlier storm though); at the time Loy was a full-time, non-meteorology college student. Pre-PJM Instapundit spotted his posts and did his usual link-and-spotlight act and Loy’s data proved well presented and – within the tolerances of the weather predictive technology – understandably accurate to non-meteorologist readers.
When PJ Media came about later, Loy made the transition onto the team in his own right. I also seem to recall that Roger Simon made something of a point that PJ Media was not explicitly right-wing-only when it came to content or contributor viewpoint. Rather, the intention was to offer honest and openly ideological news and opinion. To that end, Brendan Loy seems a rather typical PJM contributor.
If my memory isn’t accurate on any of this (not at all an impossibility
), I hope others will correct the recollection.
I wonder how much of Landrieu’s caution is a reaction to last year’s Irene panic, which while justified was severely underwhelming to New York City residents (while devastating Vermont in a way meteorologists didn’t predict). With Irene and seven years distance, perhaps we’ve swung back to not being cautious enough in hurricane-vulnerable cities.
This concept has driven me crazy for 7 years. Somewhere between 1.3 and 1.8 million people left the region for Katrina. They did so in less than 40 hours. I would bet every cent I have that only a handful hit the road because of anything ANY politician said. When one of these storms gives a hint that it might enter the gulf and we all turn on the weather forecasts and base our decisions on that. CAT 5 is what made people run, not Nagin. In 7 years I have never run into a single person that stayed because they could not leave though I know they exist – but I also know that thousands upon thousands of cars were parked near the superdome and those cars could have gone out of town instead, they were tons parked in the projects and every other neighborhood in the region. I have never met anyone that they did not have enough time to go – not one. They stayed for lots of reasons (work mostly, pets, safeguard the house ect…) the most common stupid reason is “We left for Ivan and nothing happened”. I have heard that one many, many times – I don’t understand it but at least 20 people have told me that is why they stayed. As an example of how little politicians matter in the cases – the President of Jefferson Parish declared an evacuation for TS Cindy a month or so prior to Katrina – no one left. I watched the mayor this morning – I also watched the weather people.
With this storm there are some different issues than Katrina. It is currently after midnight on Monday morning. A tropical storm is out there and it may or may not develop into a cat 1-4 hurricane. It is currently headed towards somewhere between the LA/TX border and the AL/FL border and will make landfall sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday. I have been watching the forecasts all day and that is where we stand. How do you call a city wide evacuation based on that information? How do you evacuate based on that? I don’t blame the mayor and if we wind up in a pickle I won’t blame him either. I can make my own decisions, for better or for worse. For Katrina we were gone as soon as I could get released from the hospital that Saturday (I had a baby that week) but for this one I am at a loss. If the storm hits here then various models take the storm to both of the places I can evacuate so I don’t even know where to head if we did leave now. If it misses we have to be back for school and work (school is canceled till Wednesday but I am sure they would repeal that if things were all clear – it’s happened before). I don’t know that there has ever been a 3 day cone that was so uncertain and because of that we are all uncertain – the mayor has nothing to do with that, the storm does. You stay for a 1 or a 2 if you are in a strong house in a non-flood prone area. You leave for anything 3 and up. Those are the guidelines for most of us. Until we know what we are dealing with it is kind of hard to take action. I have 5 cases of water, supplies for 4-7 days or so, flashlights, radio…. prepared to stay or go – I wish I knew which was the best option. My friends on facebook are all wrestling with the same questions and the mayor has not come into the conversation at all. Most are staying, very few are leaving – if the storm get’s bigger that will flip. We just don’t know right now. If it makes you feel better, I saw them setting up the cones for contraflow on I-10 so an evacuation may be on the way. Finger’s crossed the 4 am advisory will clear some of this up.
What Jamie said. We’re professionals at this. If it’s time to go, we go.
And the latest update has it still a Category One at landfall.
The irony is that when you go to http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/ you will find that Mike Smith is quoting Brendan Loy.
So much for politicizing this blogger.
Those who can leave , will. Those who won’t will drown.
Darwin at it’s best.
Actually, Busch Lite should have left the city filled with water and
let nature take it back, but in yet another idiot move , he paid to have it
reconstructed like GM and the Whoore Street Frauds.
Yet you wonder why the GOP is following a flip flopping Mormon … ?