Isaac Gets Organized, Moves into Haiti
I am beginning to suspect that, even if Tampa is largely bypassed, the Republican Party will end up needing to compress its convention, or at least the “made for TV” portion thereof, into Wednesday and Thursday. This is largely based on a “Gustav precedent,” when they cancelled Day 1 of a convention in Minnesota because of the perceived optics of throwing a big party while a hurricane was hitting the Gulf. Imagine those same optics if the hurricane was just a couple hundred miles, or less, away. So yeah, I think the GOP convention will end up basically starting Wednesday, after Isaac is inland. But I’m just speculating that; I don’t know.
Back to the intensity forecast for a moment: the good news, as Dr. Jeff Masters noted earlier today, is that the Gulf waters aren’t as conducive for rapid intensification as we’ve seen in years past. Here’s a map to demonstrate this:
Dr. Masters explains:
For tropical cyclones in favorable environmental conditions for intensification (i.e., vertical wind shear less than 15 kt, mid-level relative humidity >50 %, and warm SSTs [i.e., >28.5C]) and with intensities less than 80kt, values of ocean heat content greater than 50 kJ/cm^2 (yellow and warmer colors) have been shown to promote greater rates of intensity change. Isaac will be in such a region when it is over water between its current location and the Florida Keys. Once Isaac goes beyond the Keys, total ocean heat content will fall to levels not as conducive for rapid intensification. …
While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 – 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial). Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, I doubt we can get a Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf in 2012.
And thank goodness for that. The possibility of Isaac becoming a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, though, remains very much alive. We shall see. A big factor will be, not how much the wind speed per se weakens over Haiti and Cuba, but how much of the storm’s newly developed inner core structure is maintained over the islands. If the mountains of Cuba just basically rip the storm’s core apart, it will take longer for Isaac regain its strength, and intensificaiton to a major hurricane is unlikely. So, root for those mountains to do their thing, I guess.
Get updates at Weather Nerd.
I live just north of Fort Walton Beach, FL. Some stations here are already running low on gas and grocery stores are running low on canned meats and fish. I checked with a local chain hardware store yesterday and they had sold every gas can in stock. It is good to see people taking this storm as a potential threat. Of course, this isn’t NOLA. Lots of military and retired military here.
I was here for both Ivan and Opal. We lost trees in both. I had two large trees adjacent to my house removed earlier this year and am really glad I did.
The delay in the convention due to the optics doesn’t make sense, absent the Keys being completely wiped out. Otherwise, they would be holding things up while the storm was over basically empty water Monday and Tuesday. They should get Romney nominated with the possibility of calling the convention early if the landfall causes significant damage.
Yes, the MSM will try to bring up Katrina and revive the lies they propagated then. But New Orleans wasn’t flooded by Katrina, but rather by the failure of the levies due to a century or so of government malfeasance with construction money. The Democrat governor of LA did a poor job. Whereas, the Republican governor of MS, where the real storm damage was, did a very good job. And a significant portion of Katrina’s damage was due to completely unexpected flooding due to the storm surge being unable to drain to the west of the storm due the close proximity of the Delta.
In the end, storms come and go, and even in the Gulf you can’t stop life every time one enters the Gulf unless you are in the path.
Can’t you all see? The right-wing weather machine is being steered by Romney and Ryan now. *sigh* And they’re trying to make it go to N’awlins again. Granted, their ability to steer hurricanes isn’t as good as BushHitler’s but they’re learning. EVERYBODY knows that Romney wants the hurricane to hit black people so they won’t be able to vote in November. I mean…come ON! You’d have to be a right-wing fascist hater to not see it!
(sarc)
Isaac, translated from Hebrew, means, “he is laughing” or “God is laughing”
Kind of creepy when you think about it. Another bit of trivia is that many of the most devastating hurricanes begin with the letter “I.”
I say go ahead with the convention come he** or high water (sorry)! The summer has been awful for the campaign, we need to show that we are not a bunch of pansies, but that we can stand up to anything, including hurricanes. God bless and go forward!
We won’t be completely wiped out. Not from a Cat 1 storm with 75 knot winds but we will get hit.And as far a I am concerned we are the first land that gets hit.Tired of being ignored so much.I’m in Islamorda and the direct hit may be closer to Key West.There they will get a 2-4 foot tidal surge we get around 2 foot surge here.
Your suspicions were correct. The storm may well be a two or even a three by the time it hits near Destin in the Fla. Panhandle.
The convention is closing down for Tuesday but will be right back up. Not a bad idea.
Either way by the beginning of Nov. there will be no more Issac and no more Obama!! Two great things to look forward to.
@ #4:
Camille, Katrina, Bob, Agnes, Andrew, Hugo, Wilma, Eloise, Charley, 1900 Galveston hurricane, Rita?