Comments on: Almost far worse

By: Retread

Retread — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 19:13:20 +0000

I agree the ‘certain death’ phrase was unfortunate if not unprofessional, but having been on Galveston island as a visitor a number of times I can’t understand the choice to stay. And it isn’t just the question of making it through the storm but how long one has to exist after without services. Until the power is restored the grocery stores can’t restock, the gas stations can’t pump gas, the restaurants can’t open, etc., nevermind the additional burden placed on police, firemen, National Guard, etc.

By: Keith

Keith — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 22:28:00 +0000

I think someone at the NWS should be fired for that “certain death” warning. Even within that warning, it also used the term “may” as in “may face certain death” which undercuts the whole notion of certain death. The models can’t be trusted; the press coverage can’t be trusted; the warnings can’t be trusted. No wonder no one evacuates.

Especially given all the hype in the media and from the weather crews themselves, it seems to me that the probability of the actual event being not as bad as the hype is at least 90% and maybe even 99%. Time after time I heard reporters in the rain breathlessly quoting the figures for the surge height, the wind speeds, the rain inches, etc. using almost exclusively the max end of the range. IIRC the forecasts were for the surge to be “15-20 feet” at Galveston, and with 12 feet they missed it by 20% on the low end, which isn’t terrible.

One of these days, the dire warnings will come again, shrill warnings of “certain death” will be raised, no one will evacuate and lots of people will die because of all the crying wolf. But at least those people doing the warnings will be able to sleep at night because they did warn people–just no one listened and that isn’t their fault, right?

Brendan, I’m addicted to your coverage! Keep up the great work.

By: Ed

Ed — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 06:43:42 +0000

So, models failed utterly for an event 12 hours away, but we are to accept hockey stick AGW theory, and then ignore tons of evidence of cooling to come.

I was actually hoping the NHS would be correct about “certain death” due to catastrophic storm surge. The hundreds that would have died would have been a great example/warning for future thousands who will now ignore the cryers of wolf.

Me? I think the NHS did their best and made a difficult decision under immense pressure. They really thought there was a wolf. But, now we have two duds in a row, despite immense hype.

Brendan, your posts were terrific in the lead up. Thank you.

By: notutopia

notutopia — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 03:58:44 +0000

I am a past resident of Galveston Island who still has a bayhouse on Follett’s Island which is west of Galveston on the Brazoria county side of the San Luis Pass Bridge. Up until the last few hours of Ike’s entry into the coastline, I thought the storm surge was not going to be as bad on the west side of the cyclone. They were only partly correct. The structural damage was significant from the water surge and wind. I viewed a flyover coverage clip filmed during the search and rescue ops which aired via live stream this late afternoon by Fox.com. Other than a blurb here and there, the media coverage has all been focused on debris on the Seawall blvd. and Office windows being blown out in the highest buildings in Houston and major power outages. The flyover coverage was most helpful as its footage covered the heavier clustered areas of houses mostly on the beachfront starting from the Freeport/Quintana jetties, Surfside, up The Intracoastal waterway eastward, Drum bay, then over to the Chocolate Bayou refinery, Pereqin Condos, Treasure Island, and the San Luis Pass. This visual footage provided a virtual passenger ride for 10 minutes told me more than all the hours I have waited and watched Weather watches, Mainstream media reporters,surfed the web and listened to KTRH for the last 3 days! I still have NO idea if my bayfront house survived, but the water in Christmas Bay was up and over Bluewater Hwy.
Bravo Fox Live Streaming!

By: ubu roi

ubu roi — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 02:04:54 +0000

Frankly, I was rather glad to be wrong. Still, the prospect of weeks without electricity is its own disaster… all my plans for remaining online have failed except for a very limited connection. Can’t even access my own blog!

By: David

David — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 22:43:26 +0000

The problem is the word “certain” was used far too much. In the worst case, NHC’s “…CERTAIN DEATH…” is going to lead to lead to more people discounting warnings.

By: Robert

Robert — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 22:34:55 +0000

http://blackforkblog.blogspot.com/

Don’t just stand there. Do something!

By: Brendan Loy

Brendan Loy — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 20:22:22 +0000

Ironman, with Charley, I’m sure the “hype” people were wondering what the hell was wrong with the forecasters, why didn’t they emphasize the danger more, and why didn’t officials order evacuations? Some folks just demand perfection, allowing zero margin of error. My dad calls these people Gnostics. I just call them idiots.

By: Brendan Loy

Brendan Loy — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 20:20:20 +0000

Windypundit, that’s an excellent question, but I don’t actually know the answer. If anyone else does, please chime in!

Hucbald, you are certainly right that missing the mark by ten feet can’t be explained by the usual “oh, hurricane forecasting is hard” explanation. I didn’t mean to imply otherwise. In talking about the inherent uncertainties of forecasting, I was referring to the crucial last-minute wobble, and the timing of the last-minute strengthening. The surge model error is a whole different issue, which cries out for an explanation. (And I hope somebody will come up with one!) But I believe what Dr. Masters is saying here is that, even with the new reality that we now understand about the size of the surge (as opposed to the incorrect model data), Galveston still would have been devastated if the storm had gone 25-50 miles to the west, and/or if the strengthening had been timed a little differently.

By: Ironman

Ironman — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 20:12:24 +0000

I suggest the “hype” people review what happened with Hurricane Charlie, which came in much stronger than expected at a place where it wasn;t supposed to make landfall.

Thankfully, the Lee and Charlotte county coasts are still relatively lightly populated; had this been a major city things would have been exponentially worse