Comments on: Good news: Edouard’s strengthening stalls

By: Barkley

Barkley — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 20:45:42 +0000

Yep. Lots of houses were flooded in both Claudette & Allison. Claudette sticks in my memory because my parents’ home had 18 inches of water in it. They were evacuated by boat.

It seems to me that all the discussion about the risk of high winds is largely beside the point. The big risk in the Houston area comes from flooding. People in Houston have drowned after severe thunderstorms (when they attempted to drive through deep water collected in underpasses).

By: Tony B

Tony B — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 20:20:02 +0000

Maybe I’m being unfair to Eric but I can’t see telling people to stay off the roads in conditions no worse than a nasty thunderstorm.

Um, it’s good common sense to stay off the roads in a nasty storm, period.

And Barkley, your Claudette is my Allison. The city of Friendswood had 2 separate flood events in one week when Allison came, left and came back.

By: ubu

ubu — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 20:13:05 +0000

Brendan, Mayor White’s comments are from an email to city employees. I’ll post it in it’s entirity at Houblog, because there’s a bit of wiggle room in there I didn’t include for brevity. And I am probably being a bit too radical for Galveston; there’s a few hours of “level 4″ there. Sixty mph winds aren’t to be trifled with. Add storm surge and heavy rain… not a good idea.

Within Houston, the real problem is reduced visibility hiding street flooding and minor bayou flooding until too late. And some fool always drives into an underpass on a feeder road.

By: ubu

ubu — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:56:45 +0000

Maybe I’m being unfair to Eric but I can’t see telling people to stay off the roads in conditions no worse than a nasty thunderstorm. Do I like driving through one? No. Do I think it’s safe? Not entirely. Do I think it’s better to take the penalties if I don’t go to work? No. Do I expect him to say, “Hey, no problem, drive in to work tomorrow?” No, because the first idiot to drive his car into a flooded road will sue the Chron. He doesn’t have to go so far the other way though, and that’s why I’m critical of the hype.

I think the problem here is we’re adopting a binary solution: Drive/Don’t Drive. It needs to be a bit more flexible:

1. Drive Normally,
2. Drive with Caution,
3. Don’t Drive Unless Necessary,
4. Absolute Lives-at-Risk Emergency Only,
5. Stay Home Idiot.

Given the timing for the wind and rain increases, for Galveston island, it’s a 2 or 3 there, but inland, in Houston proper, it’s a 2 if you can get in to work before the storm, and that’s based on Eric’s wind/time charts (are they in kts or mph?)

As for emergency officials, their statements are inherently conservative because they have to deal with the failures of judgement. Too many, and they’ll be overwhelmed, and they also risk losing their people trying to rescue persons trapped by weather.

By: Shreela

Shreela — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:48:15 +0000

@ Barkley – I remember that flooding in ’79. My first apartment flooded between Edgebrook and Shaver. I remember looking out and seeing a Camaro in the parking lot, then later I couldn’t see it at all.

Didn’t some houses in Friendswood and Alvin get more than two feet of water in them? And there’s been a LOT more developments built since then.

By: Shreela

Shreela — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:41:27 +0000

Hi, first time here; I came from Eric/SciGuy’s blog you commented on.

I’m wondering if Eric’s considering the TIME that they’re thinking Edouard will hit Houston — morning RUSH HOUR.

And I also wonder if Eric’s considering the FLOODING (during morning rush hour), instead of just the wind speeds that have been discussed since ubu’s comment.

Like I commented at Eric’s blog: Remember 288 flash flood?

I’m a little surprised at Mayor White’s thinking, being that he’s an attorney. Maybe he’s trying to make up for his part in the Rita exodus.

By: Brendan Loy

Brendan Loy — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:39:43 +0000

Ubu, can you give me a link/citation for the quoted comments by Mayor White? I can’t find them anywhere.

By: Barkley

Barkley — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:16:46 +0000

You youngsters don’t remember TS Claudette in 1979. It stalled, just off the coast, between Houston and Galveston and dumped 42 inches of rain in 24 hours, causing very significant flooding in the Dickinson, Friendswood, League City, and Alvin area.

Its 24 hour rainfall total remains a record for the continental US.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Claudette_(1979)

By: Brendan Loy

Brendan Loy — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:14:25 +0000

I posed your criticism to Berger, and asked for his response. He wrote: “People aren’t supposed to drive in winds that exceed 40 mph. As presently forecast, winds will be above 40 mph tomorrow for most of the Houston area. I’m simply reminding people that they ought not drive in tropical storm-force winds.” He subsequently repeated, in another comment, “Winds, especially south of I-10, are presently forecast to exceed 40 mph. Emergency officials say it’s unsafe to drive in winds higher than 40 mph.”

So that’s his rationale. Sounds like you have a different opinion than those unnamed “emergency officials” re: what’s safe to drive in, so I think that’s the crux of your disagreement with Berger here.

By: Brendan Loy

Brendan Loy — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 18:42:27 +0000

P.S. I guess an implicit aspect of what I’m saying is, I don’t see the enormous harm in telling people to stay off the roads, etc. It’s different from evacuation, which carries with it inherent risks, as Houston residents know well. But simply suggesting that people take a “hurricane day” is not exactly going to cause death and destruction. And I’m not sure people should feel obligated to drive to work in even sustained 65 mph winds. Yeah, so the economy will slow down for a day because people missed work — I imagine it will recover. I guess it just seems to me like “err on the side of caution” isn’t such a terrible approach.

But I stand by what I said about “wait and see.” If Edouard never gets any stronger than it is now, then obviously, there’s no need to hunker down, stay off the roads, etc.