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November 6th, 2014 - 10:53 am

GUNS

Oy:

There are a lot of ways to address sexual assault on college campuses. Warning students to watch the facial expressions they make isn’t one of them.

Yet that’s what students at Ramapo College of New Jersey in Mahwah, New Jersey, were faced with during an hourlong presentation on alcohol use and sexual assault that focused heavily on what women could do to avoid being assaulted, according to the Ramapo News.

The presentation included tips from the school’s Substance Abuse & Violence Prevention coordinator Cory Rosenkranz, who advised students on how to dress, how much to drink and how to use body language that would lessen the chances of assault.

The author of this piece, Matt Connolly, adds:

The presentation’s focus on what the victim should be doing rather than what the perpetrator shouldn’t be doing — committing acts of sexual assault — drew criticism from students, faculty and alumni.

I am so, so tired of this tripe.

Listen to me closely now.

Men – Know – Not – To – Rape.

We know this already. It’s wrong. It’s bad. It’s rapey.

The problem isn’t that men are stupid, although you’d be hard-pressed to get a modern feminist to admit to that, because to do so in a meaningful way would shatter her precious little worldview.

The problem is that rapists don’t care that it’s wrong. Rapists aren’t ignorant; they’re bad. They’re evil. They’re rapists.

And there are damn few of them in the general male population.

So the solution isn’t to badger the overwhelming majority of men who are decent and good. The solution, as pictured above, is to be prepared for the few who are bad and evil and rapey.

But that would put a whole lot of modern feminists out of cushy “public service” jobs, and we can’t make them compete in the private marketplace against their more-able sisters and brothers, can we?

Steve Israel Quits DCCC

November 6th, 2014 - 9:51 am

You can’t really blame him for this:

Following Democratic setbacks in the midterms, Rep. Steve Israel said he has turned down House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s appeal to chair the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman for a third time.

The New York congressman will not run the party’s congressional campaign operations for the 2016 elections and is instead eyeing a spot in House Democratic leadership, Newsday reported Wednesday.

Last night, AOSHQDD pegged the new Congress at 250-185, the smallest Democratic caucus since before the Great Depression. And if the President doesn’t get himself back into shape quickly, they won’t fare much better (at least not on Capitol Hill) in 2016.

That just doesn’t leave the DCCC chair with much to do.

Your ♡bamaCare!!! Fail of the Day

November 6th, 2014 - 8:48 am

pinocchio_3

The Washington Post gives the President three Pinocchios for yesterday’s claim that ♡bamaCare!!! “has led to lower increases in health care costs.”

The IRS Is an Organized Crime Outfit

November 6th, 2014 - 7:41 am

It’s come to this:

Internal Revenue Service Commissioner John Koskinen warned that close to half the people trying to reach the IRS by phone might not get through during the upcoming 2015 tax filing season. “Phone service could plummet to 53%,” he told an audience of tax practitioners at the AICPA National Tax Conference in Washington, D.C. today. That would be down from an already unacceptable 72% during the 2014 filing season. The average hold time projection: 34 minutes! What’s to blame? Budget woes. “All we can do is try to maximize our services as well as we can; as well as we can is still going to be miserable. You really do get what you pay for,” he said.

Nice filing season you have there. It’d be a real shame if anything was to happen to it.

Repeal the 16th. Abolish the IRS in toto. Institute a Fair Tax.

Required Reading

November 6th, 2014 - 6:28 am

TALK TO THE HANDS

VDH on Obama’s toxic brand:

Arrogance and incompetence are a fatal brew. If once his problem was his failed policies, now it is also his persona, especially the blame-gaming and sense of boredom on the job that borders on public petulance, as if he came into the presidency to save us, and we did not appreciate his godhead. “Make no mistake about it” and “Let me be perfectly clear” have become something like Sominex for most Americans. Let us hope that our enemies abroad in the next two years are confused by his erratic governance and at least find him as exasperating as we do.

I don’t know if you watched yesterday’s press conference, but it was unlike anything I’d ever seen. Obama presented the exact same policies voters had just rejected, insisted that he’s the guy “everybody” votes for, ridiculed Congress for being the ones hardly anybody votes for, demanded they give him his immigration bill or he’d do what he wanted via executive order. He praised Iran’s “cooperation” and blasted our Israeli ally. He acted bored, disinterested, and angry. And he kept the press there for well over an hour, as if to punish them for daring to give him some tough questions.

I’d never seen a President behave that way. I’ve only on a few occasions seen an adult behave that way. My four-year-old hardly ever behaves that way.

We can hope afterwords that Michelle or Valerie or someone he still listens to (there are few left), took him aside and read him the presidential riot act.

But is there anyone left in the White House who can or will do that? Is there anyone left in the White House who even noticed something might be wrong?

Who Will Get Us Back into Space?

November 6th, 2014 - 5:29 am

My latest Trifecta segment.

STAND UP

Heh.

Maybe Redmond should include that in the brochure.

Late Night Rambling (In the Middle of the Day)

November 5th, 2014 - 11:12 am

SCR

Adolf Hitler didn’t take all of Czechoslovakia, and Josef Stalin didn’t give all of it back — and that’s created an opportunity right now for Vladimir Putin.

True story.

The two-part dismemberment of Czechoslovakia was a multinational feeding frenzy. The Munich Agreement was infamous for giving the Sudetenland to Nazi Germany, but Poland took the opportunity to snip off the Zaolzie area for itself, and Hungary took the southern bits of Slovakia. What was left was called the “Czech-Slovak Republic.”

A few months later, Germany and Hungary finished off the Czech-Slovak Republic. Germany made a protectorate out of the ethnically-Czech rump of Bohemia and Moravia, rump Slovakia was granted “independence” under Nazi domination, and Hungary grabbed the tail end of the country, known as Sub-Carpathian Ruthenia. Actually, it has a lot of names: Carpathian Ruthenia, Transcarpathian Ruthenia, Transcarpathian Ukraine, Transcarpathia, Rusinko, Subcarpathian Rus′ or Subcarpathia — according to Wikipedia and a bunch of 19th and 20th century atlases I’ve collected over the years.

But whatever big mouthful of a name you want to call the tiny region, it’s what concerns us today.

When Stalin restored Czechoslovakia in 1945, he did them a favor and cleared the so-called Sudetenland of ethnic Germans, thus removing a sticking point between Germany and Czechoslovakia. It’s history’s dirty little secret that ethnic cleansing, while just about the worst thing one people can do to another, works. That, I must say again, is an observation and not an endorsement.

But Stalin also did himself a favor and tacked Sub-Carpathian Ruthenia onto the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic — one of the few places where the post-WWII Soviet border actually improved upon the pre-WWI Imperial Russia border. (The Soviets lost Poland, Finland, and a big chunk of Armenia between the wars, but gained eastern Poland — including Ruthenia — a couple slices of Finland, Tanu Tuva way out next to Mongolia, southern Karafuto/Sakhalin and the Kurils, after WWII.)

So what is Sub-Carpathian Ruthenia? It’s a mess, a hodgepodge, an ethno-geologic fault line between all the neighborhood players. The “indigenous” locals, and I use scare quotes because the place has changed hands so often it’s impossible to know who’s indigenous, who’s an invader, and who’s just been around a while…

…anyway, the indigenous locals are the Rusyns, who speak an eastern Slavic language which really isn’t Russian and isn’t quite Ukrainian. And even they’re divided into three subgroups, including the delightfully named Pannonians. For a short time after WWI, they even got their very own country, the Lemko-Rusyn Republic. Actually, two countries if you include the Komancza Republic, which we really ought to do, out of a ridiculous and long-winded sense of completeness. And in that spirit I should also mention that at some point both republics were subsumed under the West Ukrainian People’s Republic which was mostly dominated by the Hungarian Democratic Republic, which was before its independence as Carpatho-Ukraine for a few hours in 1939. And don’t even get me started on Galicia, the larger and just-as-fractured region of which Sub-Carpathian Ruthenia is a sub-region.

Did you get all that? There will be a quiz at the end of the column.

So the Rusyns have been ruled over by Austrians and Hungarians and Poles and Czechoslovaks and Russians and Ukrainians and Lithuanians. I’d have to consult at least two historical atlases to be 100% certain, but I don’t think the Romanians (Moldavians, really) or Turks ever got their hands on the area. But they both probably tried.

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Perspective

November 5th, 2014 - 9:26 am

Jim Geraghty has some for you:

Battleground Texas – the well-funded effort by liberal organizations to duplicate their previously (briefly) successful efforts in Colorado and turn the state of Texas into a competitive or Democrat-leaning state – will probably never go away entirely.

But after last night, liberal donors may start to ask what the heck they’ve gotten for all their efforts. Not only did every Republican win every statewide race last night; at this hour, no Democrat hit 39 percent in any statewide race. The political world is laughing at Wendy Davis’ 38.88 percent this morning, but that was the best performance of any Democrat running statewide.

Emphasis in the original.

Two years ago as the returns started coming in from Virginia and Florida, I got a sick feeling in my stomach, and at almost the exact same moment a Twitter friend DMed to say, “Nothing is breaking out way, is it?” The GOP was simply outclassed and out-fought, and ran into a brick wall — the Democrats’ high-tech turnout machine.

The GOP did a good job playing catchup this time around, at least good enough for a midterm election. Had they been a sharper and more ambitious, they probably could have picked up additional wins in VA and NH. I hope they learn that lesson as well as they seemed to have learned the lessons of 2016.

Last night was the practice run, and it went well for the Senate and was outstanding at state-level and local races. Two years from now is the real deal, and nothing should be left to chance — and the effort must start now. Today. There’s no time to bask.

Thought for the Day

November 5th, 2014 - 7:41 am

Drunkblogger Drank

November 5th, 2014 - 6:21 am

You watch the first of my three-part Trifecta while I nurse my hangover.

That’s a win-win, kids.

Election 2014: The Home Game

November 4th, 2014 - 1:13 pm

PPSCORECARD

Practical Politicking has your 2014 Senate Scorecard so you can play along at home. Different outcomes of the various races are worth different D+ or R+ points, so you can see which side beat the spread. I’ve printed up my copy and will be keeping track right here at Casa Verde.

SARMADA

Jolly:

Syrian activists say al-Qaida fighters are amassing in a Syrian border town in what appears to be an attempt to seize a nearby Turkish border crossing from Syrian rebels.

Assad Kanjo said Monday that Nusra Front fighters have been gathering in the town of Sarmada in the northern Idlib province, some 4 miles (6 kilometers) from Bab al-Hawa, an important Turkish border crossing.

If Nusra Front fighters seize the crossing, it would block an important supply line for Western-backed rebels.

Fear not, as Professor Ditherton Wiggleroom leaps into inaction:

If you want a laugh, go to the Central Command website and click on their press releases. Every day there is a new dispatch about the anti-ISIS air campaign in Iraq and Syria known incongruously as Operation Inherent Resolve. The latest release is from October 28: “U.S. military forces continued to attack ISIL terrorists in Syria Monday and today using attack and fighter aircraft to conduct four airstrikes. Separately, U.S. and partner nation military forces conducted nine airstrikes in Iraq Monday and today using attack, fighter, and remotely piloted aircraft against ISIL terrorists.” What’s so funny here? The fact that Central Command is trumpeting a mere 13 airstrikes, which only highlights how anemic this whole air campaign remains.

Between October 7, 2001, and December 23, 2001—a period of seventy-five days—U.S. aircraft fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan flew 6,500 strike sorties and dropped 17,500 munitions. By contrast, between August 8, 2014, and October 23, 2014—a period of seventy-six days—the United States conducted only 632 airstrikes and dropped only 1,700 munitions in Iraq and Syria.

To be fair, the Iraqi Army of 1991 provided a much more target-rich environment than ISIL forces do today.

Wait?

What’s that?

The author, Max Boot, wasn’t comparing our anti-ISIL airstrikes in Iraq today with our anti-Iraqi airstrikes in Iraq of yesteryear? Rather, he was comparing our 6,500 sorties against the thinly-spread Taliban to our 632 sorties against the thinly-spread Caliphate?

Oh.

Well.

Never mind.

The Winning Handski

November 4th, 2014 - 9:35 am

NATO’s top US general sees a grim future between the West and Russia:

Gen. Philip Breedlove said Monday that Moscow’s actions are forcing the West to beef up its military capabilities, and Russia is discussing plans to put aircraft in Ukraine’s Crimea region that have a full range of capabilities, including possibly tactical nuclear weapons. He added, however, that so far he has seen no indications that Russia is deploying such weapons to Crimea.

“Hybrid war is what we are coming to call what Russia has done clearly in Crimea and in eastern Ukraine,” Breedlove told a small group of Pentagon reporters, saying that Moscow has brought military, political and economic pressure on Ukraine, eroding the border and shifting it toward a line of demarcation further west. “I’m concerned that the conditions are there that could create a frozen conflict,” one that creates a new reality.

If you wear a star on your shoulder, you’re as much a political creature as a military one. That’s a fact, not an insult. That said, it’s refreshing that someone in Breedlove’s position, which may be almost entirely political, feels the need and has the freedom to say what must be said.

President Obama can insist all he likes that Vladimir Putin is “on the wrong side of history” and using outmoded 19th Century power plays. But the fact is that Putin has combined special forces, political intrigue, spycraft, social media, propaganda, savvy leadership,and above all patience to leverage Russia’s few strengths against the West’s few weaknesses.

Meanwhile, Obama behaves as if it’s still the 1990s and he can get what he wants from his awed pupils with a condescending lecture.

Program Note

November 4th, 2014 - 8:00 am
Election Night Preparations

Election Night Preparations

Blogging will be a little thin today, but that’s to save my strength for tonight’s Epic Midterm Returns Drunkblog.

The fun begins on the PJM home page at a little after 6:30PM Eastern.

Do You Science?

November 4th, 2014 - 6:40 am

What happens when you drop a bowling ball and a feather at the exact same time — in the world’s biggest vacuum chamber?

Exactly what ought to happen.

Great find from Jim D.

We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Registration

November 4th, 2014 - 5:14 am

The Denver Post’s Vincent Carroll explains what’s wrong with Colorado draconian campaign finance laws:

You can’t freely spend (or accept) even a few hundred dollars for yard signs and leaflets in your neighborhood in support of a ballot measure, or combine with friends to do so, without becoming an “issue committee,” according to state law. At which point you will find yourself ensnared in complex registration and reporting requirements, subject to fines and civil penalties, that drive prudent people into the arms of lawyers.

Twice in the past four years — first in 2010 and again three weeks ago — federal judges have warned that Colorado’s law is an affront to the First Amendment for small-scale groups that raise and spend modest amounts of money. It’s high time someone listened to them.

It’s funny how all of these laws designed purportedly to get big money out of politics always seem to end up putting the squeeze on the grassroots instead.

Thought for the Day

November 3rd, 2014 - 7:56 pm

Smart TV, Dumb Policy

November 3rd, 2014 - 1:48 pm

1984

Introducing the Samsung Telescreen:

A 46-page privacy policy which is now included in all newly purchased Samsung Smart TVs states that voice recognition technology “may capture voice commands and associated texts” in order to “improve the features” of the system.

The policy, a summary of which is also posted online, ominously advises users to, “Please be aware that if your spoken words include personal or other sensitive information, that information will be among the data captured and transmitted to a third party through your use of Voice Recognition.”

Writing about the privacy policy for Salon.com, Michael Price, counsel in the Liberty and National Security Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, said he was now “terrified” of his new TV, noting that voice recognition is just one feature that could be used to spy on users. The television also logs website visits, has a built-in camera for facial recognition and uses tracking cookies to detect “when you have viewed particular content or a particular email message.”

“I do not doubt that this data is important to providing customized content and convenience, but it is also incredibly personal, constitutionally protected information that should not be for sale to advertisers and should require a warrant for law enforcement to access,” writes Price, adding that current privacy laws offer little protection against “third party” data.

You get the feeling Samsung needs to change this policy if the company wants to, you know, keep selling TVs?

All the Bad Ideas That Are Fit to Print

November 3rd, 2014 - 12:40 pm

David Schanzer and Jay Sullivan have a whopper of a lousy idea:

There was a time when midterm elections made sense — at our nation’s founding, the Constitution represented a new form of republican government, and it was important for at least one body of Congress to be closely accountable to the people. But especially at a time when Americans’ confidence in the ability of their government to address pressing concerns is at a record low, two-year House terms no longer make any sense. We should get rid of federal midterm elections entirely.

You think they’d be making this same argument if 2014 weren’t looking so much like 2010? Or if 2010 hadn’t happened at all?

But let them continue:

The realities of the modern election cycle are that we spend almost two years selecting a president with a well-developed agenda, but then, less than two years after the inauguration, the midterm election cripples that same president’s ability to advance that agenda.

That’s a feature, not a bug. Each branch of government was designed by the Founders to be jealous of its own powers and prerogatives, as a backstop against the tyranny of one branch over the other two. This is basic civics, of which I’m sure Schanzer and Sullivan are aware.

They want an Il Duce or El Jefe to “get things done.” Which has worked out so well everywhere else it’s been tried.

David Rothkopf is no fan of Bibi Netanyahu — but he saved both barrels for the White House:

The quote gives us an idea how top White House decision-makers feel about Netanyahu — but the effort to shift the blame to State gives us an idea of what they think about governing. Apparently lost on them is the fact that the State Department is actually part of the Obama administration, and that someone there saying it would reflect as badly on the president as it would if it were someone whose office were in the White House complex. But this us versus the world Obama leadership team, still in campaign mode six years later, apparently views everyone who doesn’t eat at the White House mess as an outsider — and views most of those folks as suspect.

You would think a White House this deep in the weeds would be forced out of simple necessity to widen its circle of trust. Even during decent times you’d expect that to happen as old advisors, cabinet members, and czars leave, and the West Wing fills up with fresh faces.

Reagan brought in new people after Iran-Contra. Clinton because of his inability to keep it zipped. Bush because of Iraq. If each man’s last two years weren’t exactly the best (cough, cough) of their administrations, at least their White Houses functioned properly.

Obama’s real test comes when the fate of the Senate is decided (either tomorrow night, or after December and/or January runoffs in GA an LA). Will he clean house? Will he bring in fresh people? Will he expand his diminishing inner circle to a healthier size? Over at Politico, Glenn Thrush and Carrie Budoff Brown don’t seem to think so:

So will he fire anybody? And can he still get anybody worth hiring to work for him? Already anticipating a bad election night, many Democrats and the TV pundit class have begun howling for a West Wing housecleaning, even if Obama shows no signs of doing so—though a Tuesday wipeout could change that thinking in a hurry.

For now, White House officials insist he won’t indulge in a ritual that they essentially equate to a sugar high for their critics, pleasing but fleeting. “That is not going to happen,” a senior administration official told us when asked if Obama was preparing a major staff shakeup. If anything the circle is tightening.

The level of mistrust that exists in this White House seems to border on Stalinesque paranoia, but without Stalin’s tender methods for getting …stuff… done.

It’s going to be a messy final two years.

Required Reading

November 3rd, 2014 - 9:31 am

Tom Rogan wants “Boots to Anbar, Now.” Read:

If the Sunni tribes are defeated, America will have to re-deploy large numbers of ground forces back to Iraq. The Iraqi military is mistrusted by Sunnis and in the short term won’t be able to secure Anbar without assistance. Dempsey understands this, which is why he is now pushing President Obama to deploy U.S. military advisers to support the tribal uprisings. There’s a grand opportunity here. ISIS lacks popular Sunni support. In addition, as I’ve said before, a tribal-partnering strategy would devastate the Islamic State. If we aim to establish a new militia-army to confront ISIS, we’ll find a well of recruits disenchanted by ISIS activities in the realms of ideology, governance, and territory. Propelled by their violent religious psychosis, ISIS leaders have fostered loathing. Dempsey’s strategy would turn that brutality against them.

The benefits of Dempsey’s strategy go further. By proving our worth to the Sunni tribes, America would gain a new ally and the political opportunity to check Iran’s influence in Iraq. We’d also anchor a more positive perception with Sunnis across the Middle East, while rebuilding our shattered credibility with allies and adversaries.

It’s solid advice, but it flies in the face of the Administration’s implicitly pro-Iran hopes for the Middle East. But I’m not sure the Iranians can get enough boots into Iraq to defeat ISIL, without drawing in the Saudis and starting a regional war.

That leaves our best hope is that ISIL burns itself out, but I’m less certain of that than ever.

Could Brown Turn New Hampshire Red?

November 3rd, 2014 - 8:12 am

Lauren Fox:

Unlike other close races—like those in Arkansas, Kentucky, or Alaska, all conservative states where Obama’s approval numbers have been underwater since he was elected in 2008—strong dissatisfaction with Obama’s second term in New Hampshire only emerged mid-2013. The president’s popularity in the state has continued to wane as foreign policy and national security emerged over the summer as the dominant force on the campaign trail.

A slew of potential 2016 Republican candidates visiting the state this summer and fall have also echoed the message that Democrats are undermining America’s place in the world. And Brown has not wasted the opportunity to join in and exploit the Obama administration’s struggles overseas.

In ads, Brown never misses the chance to show Shaheen smiling alongside the president. Whether the focus is the danger of immigrants slipping across the border or the potential for ISIS to attack, Brown has found a resonating message in tying Shaheen to Obama’s blunders.

The President’s numbers are so in the tank, and his policies are so widely loathed that 2014 was virtually a “self-nationalizing” election. The national GOP failed to capitalize on that, preferring to think small.

But Brown proved formidable at retail politics in 2009, so maybe he can pull this off again in 2014.

Stupid Is as Stupid Endorses

November 3rd, 2014 - 7:24 am

The National Organization for Marriage has endorsed straight Democrat Congressman Scott Peters over gay Republican challenger Carl DeMaio. The issue is gay marriage — which both candidates support:

“Carl DeMaio is wrong on marriage, just as he is wrong on abortion,” the NOM email says.

“[The GOP] was, and is, a party committed to campaigning for moral truths, and the truth of marriage as the faithful union of one man and one woman has been part of our beliefs since the founding of the GOP,” it continues.

Even though Peters is a Democrat, NOM believes that he cannot do any damage in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

“But Carl DeMaio serving as a supposed Republican in a House controlled by Republicans can do great damage, and could end up holding the seat for decades,” NOM President Brian S. Brown writes.

The National Organization for Marriage does not mention all the other classically conservative positions that DeMaio holds.

DeMaio is pro-choice, but is also against the Affordable Care Act, believes the United States should give less money in foreign aid to other countries, hopes to secure the border between the United States and Mexico, and believes in the Second Amendment.

Democrat Peters is also pro-choice and for same sex marriage. However, unlike DeMaio, Peters is not gay.

I don’t know how to take this other than as an admission by NOM that they just don’t like gays.

That’s how you lose entire blocks of voters, kids.

The Final “Wargaming”

November 3rd, 2014 - 6:07 am

RCP MAP

It’s the big pre-election wrap from yours truly, now on the PJM home page.

Genuine Disenfranchisement

November 3rd, 2014 - 5:03 am

Voter fraud in New Mexico:

According to the Rio Arriba County Clerk’s office, a voter trying to cast an early ballot in Espanola Saturday was told he had already voted three days prior.

The man told poll workers he hadn’t voted. He was then shown the signature of the voter, but he says it wasn’t his signature.

Officials say they were able to confirm that the signature on the original ballot did not match the legal voter’s signature on file.

Poll workers allowed the man to vote on a provisional ballot, but election officials will have to determine whether the provisional ballot can be counted. Elections officials have no legal means of actually verifying signatures or confirming identification of a voter.

Because photo ID is racist or something.

Extra, Extra, See All About It!

November 1st, 2014 - 12:57 pm

EXTRA

Scott Ott puts these together himself and he’s having way too much fun at it.

Stick around to the very end to really see what I mean.

Friday Night Videos

October 31st, 2014 - 10:39 pm

Disco madness continues! Are you ready to get both down and funky? Is your groove thing in shaking condition? Do you feel like dancing while you knock on wood at Boogie Wonderland? Will you stop before you get enough in your boogie shoes, or are you going to be real while getting down tonight with Lady Marmalade? Most importantly, do you love — I mean really love — the nightlife?

Excellent.

Because in honor of Tim Cook’s coming out yesterday, and as an important reminder in the days before an uncertain election — here’s Gloria Gaynor in all her glory, performing “I Will Survive” in front of a very excited audience in 1979.

(Very) Early Returns

October 31st, 2014 - 1:29 pm

BALLOTS

Here is the latest out of Colorado’s mail-in ballots by party affiliation via AOS Decision Desk. Blue Dem, Red GOP, Indy and Other are Gray. Denver County/City is of course the urban heart of Colorado’s Democrats. El Paso County is the southern Colorado giant, and very Republican. Both have similar populations — 620,000 or so for El Paso, 640,00 or so for Denver. (Denver doesn’t include the suburbs, which balloon the metro Denver population to about 2.2 million. But the ‘burbs are also much more competitive.)

As you can see, El Paso GOP voters are outvoting Denver Democrats by a whopping 20%. Dems in El Paso are outperforming Republicans in Denver by a similar percentage margin — but the overall numbers are much smaller, and there are likely more registered Democrats in El Paso than there are registered Republicans in Denver. Overall, Red is out performing Blue by a total of just over 7,000 votes in their two biggest core areas.

The metro battlefield counties are Douglas, Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Adams. The GOP leads by a total in those four counties (up in all but Adams) by 47,000 returned ballots. That’s tempered somewhat by Boulder, where the Democrats have returned a net of 16,013, and in Pueblo, where they’re up by 5,295. That just about cuts the GOP return advantage in half.

Overall? AOSDD has GOP ballots up overall by 104,487 out of a total of 1,149,745. If we split the difference of Indy and Other voters right down the middle, the GOP candidates should, at this early date, be getting around 52-56% of the vote. That spread is a guesstimate to account for split tickets and party switchers.

And if the generic party preference polls are any indicator, I was overly generous giving the Democrats half of the Indy & Other votes.

If you haven’t mailed in your ballot, what are you waiting for?

Do You Want to Live to Be 250?

October 31st, 2014 - 12:28 pm

Make it so.