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Marching by (Extrapolated) Numbers

September 12, 2009 - 5:18 pm - by Stephen Green
Charlie (Colorado)
2009-09-12 18:01:39

Well, you guys have my methodology there, and like any back of the envelope calculation, it’s going to have some significant error. 2.3 million is what I’d think was an upper bound: that’s having the whole mall about half as crowded as the people leaving a pro football game, or equivalently about people on average about six feet apart.

500,000 would put those people on average 30 feet apart, or more likely only cover about 1/5th of the mall. That’s clearly too low, from the pictures.

But we’ve got Barbara Espinosa’s actual count of 1.5 million, and some certainty that some people came to the thing by other routes. So, I’m comfortable with 2 million ± 20 percent, or say 1.8 to 2.2 million.