(Map courtesy Wikipedia Commons)
This is new to me, but back in 1973 British military historian Paddy Griffith put together a large-scale wargame of Hitler’s plan to invade Britain — Operation Sea Lion — in September of 1940. The game, reports Al Nofi, was “based on traditional kriegsspiel methodology… with several dozen players and umpires, all isolated from each other except by means of simulated signaling. Many of the players and umpires were veterans of the war from both sides.” The results might not surprise those of us who enjoy modern and serious-minded computer simulations like Norm Koger’s “The Operational Art of War.” Read:
Although the Germans had elements of 10 divisions ashore, perhaps 90,000 men, most units were still awaiting their second echelons. These could not be dispatched across the Channel due to the presence of the Royal Navy and deteriorating weather. Late in the day the senior German players held an acrimonious staff meeting, during which the Army demanded reinforcements, while the Navy pointed to the poor situation in the Channel, and the Air Force protested a shortage of resources, since it was still bombing London and other cities while also trying to cover the invasion. A decision by the senior German player (“Hitler”) resulted in orders for second wave forces at Calais to cross to Folkestone, leaving troops further west along the coast in Sussex to fight it out with diminishing supplies.
Overnight on the 23rd-24th, the Germans advanced on Canterbury and Dover in Kent, but they were less successful in Sussex. Meanwhile, the Calais-Folkestone convoy managed to get to sea before dawn, as the weather cleared. But about daylight a British destroyer flotilla found the convoy about ten miles out to sea, and cut it to pieces, despite escorting U-boats and motor torpedo boats. The Luftwaffe intervened, but the RAF threw in 19 fighter squadrons. While the British suffered serious damage to several cruisers and destroyers, nearly two-thirds of the German transport barges were sunk. Though some small ships managed to make it to Folkestone, the port was so seriously damaged they could only unload slowly.
This air-sea fight in the Channel was the decisive action of the campaign. German forces ashore in England were rapidly running out of men, equipment, and ammunition, and were unable to effect further advances; at best they might be able to hold out for a week or so on what was at hand. With perhaps three-quarters of the German transport barges lost, further reinforcement was unlikely. As British ground forces began pressing the invaders back into their bridgeheads, the Germans ordered an evacuation. By enormous effort, the Germans were able to pull out about 15,400 of the 90,000 troops who had landed in England.
I can’t count the number of times I’ve tried to succeed at Unternehmen Seelöwe in various board and computer games like Koger’s which use historically accurate models. But given the weather and the orders of battle on both sides, the Germans just can’t get enough men across the Channel, or keep supplied the ones they do get across. Getting the bulk of their troops back across the Channel in a “Reverse Dunkirk” is about the best the German player can hope for.
It’s comforting to know someone like Griffith and his crew of WWII vets couldn’t do any “better” — a comfort personally and historically.
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