That brings us to Part II of today’s wargaming, which is an extremely handy roundup from Practical Politicking’s Tom Dougherty. He has his own race-by-race data, stacked up with Cook, Sabato, and Rothenberg. I am reproducing Tom’s chart in full here, but you’ll want to click over to PP for his invaluable links.
It’s almost enough to make a conservative weep. While Tom rates the chances of a GOP takeover at about 55.4% (with 18 seats in play, compared to Sean’s 17), that’s still within the Democrats’ ability to hold on. Five likely or leaning R races is not a comfortable place to be, even this early on.
But it gets worse.
AK, AR, CO, VA — these should be fairly easy pickings for the Grand Old Party, but the best of them are all tossups at this stage, and Udall as previously mentioned seems likely to win in CO. Cook and Rothenberg each have only four likely or leaning R races, not enough to win control. Sabato is the outlier at six.
How desperate is it? Dougherty also wrote an approving piece on an Ann Coulter column, and I found myself nodding along to dang near every word. Ann Coulter and me, kids — that’s one of the horsemen of the Apocalypse.
I’m not trying to get anyone down, but I am trying to be realistic. If one of Sean Trende’s likeliest scenarios is to come to pass, it’s going to come down to conservatives and libertarians in several states holding their noses and turning out to vote. The GOP could put up Zombie Nixon against Udall, and I would crawl over broken glass to vote for him. And that’s also considering Colorado Democrats have instituted same-day voter registration, meaning that they may now pretty much steal elections at will.
But they’ve got to be stopped. Somehow. And it starts at the polls.