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All Your Base Are Belong to Us

January 11th, 2014 - 7:30 am

GALLUP

If you’ve been arguing that all the GOP needs to do is energize its base, Gallup says they barely have even that left.

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All Comments   (13)
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/01/10/why-people-call-themselves-independent-even-when-they-arent/

this article is exactly on point. it helps that it agrees with me, but it makes a valid and hopeful point.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
This chart really is a political Rorschach test. People blame the downturn on their least-favored political ally.

I don't know, it seems to me that the upswing from 2000 to 2005 argues against the social issues hypothesis, though it could simply be swamped by early war support. It seems to me that the falloff really started around the time that we got tired of the war and realized that the GOP was no longer terribly interested in shrinking the size of the government. I think the bump during the early days of the government-shrinking Tea Party, as well as fall-off once it became clear the Tea Party didn't have the clout to accomplish its desired goals, support that conclusion.

I for one would like to see the GOP candidates, when asked about abortion (and they will, the liberal propagandists who make up the press corps will ensure it), simply respond along the lines of "I believe life begins at [conception, birth, 8675309 seconds after implantation,...] but I can understand why people would have different ideas. But frankly abortion isn't high on my priority list. We need to do something about the economy, and that means rolling back this monster or a regulatory system and clawing back at the deficit and debt."

Because abortion, one way or the other, isn't going to threaten the country in the next 20-30 years. The debt and the welfare/regulatory state will.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
Republican base trends down, Democrat base stabilizes. When Republicans caved to Obama's govt. shutdown temper tantrum, the base walked. When Republicans pass Amnesty, Democrats will shoot back up, Republicans will meltdown.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
There's nowhere near the resolution necessary to say why the Republican numbers took a downturn. You're projecting your own biases onto the data.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
Note the decline for the Repub's began in 2005. That is a clear indicator to me that the "compassionate conservative" and his spending binge along with No Child Left Behind, Medicare Part D and movie nights in the White House with Teddy the murderer began the exodus of true small government conservatives from the party. The decline from '10 - '12 is their feeling of abandonment and disgust with the establishment ruling class republicans led by Boehner, McCain etal when they were elected by the strong small government movement led by the Tea Party. Amnesty will only add fuel to this fire, and those disgusted with Obamacare, a criminal Justice Department, out of control regulation and the national debt will have no where to go. As such, I predict that regardless the disgust with all of them, the dems will hold the senate and possibly gain a few seats in the house.

Until the republican party is either taken over by true small government libertarian/conservative coalition or blown up, there is not a "home" for the disenfranchised that used to be the republican "base".
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
Wake me up when "~40% of respondents dislike party politics" equals "270 electoral votes", because right now it doesn't.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
What you fail to understand is that people want to do the "right" thing, even if it costs them money. I put "right" in quotes, because in electoral politics, what's right is... fungible. At best.

If people think it's right to be socially liberal or laissez faire, then they will vote for that candidate, even if his economic and national defense policies suck. We've seen it again and again. Exit polls showed Mitt Romney won on every economic issue -- but that didn't matter much, because Wiggleroom owned the socially liberal indies, including enough of the fiscally conservative ones, to win handily.

So wake me up when alienating those people gets you to half-plus-one.

Because it never has and never will.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
So, if the left "owns" the socially liberal voters, how exactly can the Republican party win by adopting socially liberal policies?
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
I've spent years here detailing how to use small-government policies to take these issues off the table in ways to benefit the right in general and the GOP in particular. It's not about adopting lefty policies, it's about making those issue apolitical.

Sadly, much of the so-called right is very Big Government when it comes to social issues.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment

I agree that the right would like to use big government toward their own ends. But I don't think it's clear that cleverly side-stepping social issues will garner any votes. If it were that simple, we'd all be talking about who the Libertarian candidate for president will be in 2016.

The only way to roll back Progressivism is for libertarians and conservatives to make peace and form a liberty-driven voting bloc. Unfortunately, just at the point where conservatives are willing to back off the social agenda if they're given a little respect, libertarians all seem to be saying they're going to take their marbles and go home if those stupid conservatives won't surrender.

That's why 2014 is going to be a bloodbath...for the Republicans.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment

Short version: Your conclusion rests upon the assumption that the set "conservative" is contained by "identifies Republican".

I think I'd have to see some numbers to back that up.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
i'm less certain that this means anything. with the consistent trashing of "RINOs" by one group and "Teabaggers" by another, i have to think that many who are right and right-center are not willing to be identified as a Republican, but will vote that way if they can without being vilified by both sides. if the Republicans/conservatives want to win, they would do well to stop with the "stupid party" nonsense. it would also be nice if the party nominees aren't destroyed as RINOs. the country is being torn apart by the dems/libs/progs/msm. the Republican party is being torn apart by the Republican party and msm.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
Notice how the Dem base is rock solid. That tells me that either (a.) the Dem party is competently fulfilling the political philosophy preferred by its base or (b.) the Dem base is composed of people who are passionately committed to or materially dependent on the Dem party. But (a.) is not likely, in view of the incompetence of the Dem party. So, (b.).

In contrast, GOP seems to have no non-eroding base (unless the dark green line plateus out soon). This tells me that GOP base have a political philosophy and standards of competency which they use as a yardstick to measure political parties and they amscray when the GOP sucks. They are not passionately or materially committed to the GOP.

The graph tells me that it's still possible that a bare majority of the electorate are competent and willing to vote for sane government, if you count most of the independents and most of the GOP.

GOP needs to nominate candidate that independents and libertarians and conservatives still identifying as GOP want: competent, common-sense, small-government types with no record of selling out to cronies. If they do that they will crush the Dems every time. It's a no-brainer. Why doesn't the GOP do this? Either (a.) no brains or (b.) they've sold out to cronies.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
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