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Playing with Fire

September 12th, 2013 - 1:51 pm

Sean Trende on the Democrats’ problem with gun control and off-year elections:

The bottom line is that there is something of a damned-if-you-do/damned-if-you-don’t aspect to the Democrats’ argument. If this isn’t about turnout, but rather is a reaction to policy, then relatively modest gun-control efforts look pretty radioactive, and an awful lot of Democrats who supported the federal gun-control bill ought to look over their shoulders. This is especially true in Colorado, where nine Democrats occupy seats that are more Republican than the ones Republicans just flipped.

But if these recalls really were mostly about turnout, they pose a different challenge for Democrats. Quite a few Democrats who won in 2012 did so by riding the back of increased minority turnout in the presidential year — probably three in Arizona, three in California, one in Georgia, one in Nevada, one in North Carolina and one in Texas. If Democrats are currently experiencing double-digit drop-offs in net performance due to their base not turning out in non-presidential years, the conventional wisdom that there won’t be significant changes in the makeup of the House probably should be revisited.

Next year is going to prove a lot more interesting than most people think.

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All Comments   (10)
All Comments   (10)
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Pueblo recall says it wasn't about turnout.
44 weeks ago
44 weeks ago Link To Comment
Off topic, hope you and yours are high and dry, Apple fanboy. Nuthin but love forya. ;) Have grandkids in Aurora, so far, so good.
44 weeks ago
44 weeks ago Link To Comment
You are reckoning without mass Democrat vote fraud.
44 weeks ago
44 weeks ago Link To Comment
Don't worry, the IRS rogue agents, with an assist from the NSA snoopers, will do their best to root out undesirable candidates to keep their seats.
44 weeks ago
44 weeks ago Link To Comment
The elections will obliterate what's left, if there is any left, of the Obama Mojo.

Down here in Texas, the lefties are gearing up Wendy Davis for a run. Or rather, for the mother of all beat-downs. They are utterly clueless, or simply don't care, about how the electorate feels about guns and abortion.

It'll be ugly with a capital U.
44 weeks ago
44 weeks ago Link To Comment
You can only do stupid stuff for so long before it catches up with you.

After the election, I was nauseous. Then, I realized that people are mostly stupid, gullible, and self centered. Unable to learn by reason and judgement, something has to happen to them before they straighten up and mostly get it right.

They bought a ticket for everyone on the pain-train. And this weeks activities were the "WOOOOOOOOOOOOT!" of the train leaving, and a lot of the world waking up thinking "Hey where is this train headed, and why am I on it?"

We got to a far worse spot, far faster than I thought. In the year before the election there will be pain. Foreign and domestic now.

We're all riding the pain-train, and Obama is up front - texting. Can't wait until the first curves.
44 weeks ago
44 weeks ago Link To Comment
The racist push Obama received will not be present again. We have our 'historic' President now. Of course we may have another 'historic' on deck in the form of a pants suit. Then again we may have another 'historic...' when rank and file Americans decide to get informed, get up off the couch and vote for someone who might actually be good for America.

44 weeks ago
44 weeks ago Link To Comment
I think that's a strong reason behind the push for Hills. Dems know that they can't win with a white male candidate. Without the turnout boost from the bigots in their base they're toast.

Unfortunately for them women are much less unified than the black community. Hillary will boost turnout, but as much among those who hate her as those who want to see a woman President. She's not going to get a single vote more than Obama, and quite a few who voted for Barry aren't going to bother for Cankles.
44 weeks ago
44 weeks ago Link To Comment
She'll bring in an African-American as her VP candidate. That'll be her attempt to boost that demographic's participation again. It's really her only hope.
44 weeks ago
44 weeks ago Link To Comment
when rank and file Americans decide to get informed, get up off the couch and vote for someone who might actually be good for America... when pigs fly.
44 weeks ago
44 weeks ago Link To Comment
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