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Wargaming the Electoral College: The Final Edition

November 5th, 2012 - 4:26 pm

Of course, I’m more optimistic than Dowd. Recent polling in the whole upper tier of the Industrial Midwest/Great Lakes shows big weakness for Obama. He can’t even clinch 50% in MN, where there’s a gay marriage ban on the ballot, certain to delight social conservatives. Even MI is weak, and I’ve thought for a while now that Scott Walker’s machine — plus Obama’s collapse with Indies and whites — will deliver WI.

I hesitated quite a bit before coloring MI red. There are union-friendly measures on the ballot there, which are supposed to drive more Democrats to the polls. But you have to wonder if perhaps the measures sponsors weren’t a little too clever. They would take MI further to the left than John Kasich’s proposals would have taken OH to the right. Those measures failed in OH because Kasich tried to emulate Walker, but went too far. The same is very much possible in MI, although on this map, it’s the very last state to go red.

Then there’s the All For Naught scenario.

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