Wargaming the Electoral College
Remember, states Obama won in 2008 are in blue text, and states McCain won are in red.
Oops. No red. MO was the last holdout (IN and NC were the first to go) and it’s dropped off since last week. In fact, it’s looking increasingly likely that Todd Akin will end up beating Claire McCaskill. He’s still the underdog, but MO is going Big Red. Of course, if he wins, then the GOP will spend the next six years flinching every time he starts to speak — but that’s the price you pay for craptaculent candidates.
Anyway. The battlegrounds are now exclusively in Obama ’08 states. That’s Mittmentum.
I’m still pretty sure Romney will take ME-02, giving him one of ME’s four EC votes, for a safe total of 207. He has another 55 in leaners, giving him a decent grasp on 262. But that’s eight shy of 270 — Romney needs at least OH or WI out of the Tie column to win.
Obama has more safe votes with 216, but his leaners are far weaker at just 26, for a smaller cushion of 242. He needs OH and WI to go blue.
Let’s see if we can get a better measure of Mittmentum by setting the Wayback Machine for October 3, 2008.
My Fearless Forecast
Electoral College: Mitt Romney 315, Barack Obama 223
Popular Vote: Mitt Romney 52%, Barack Obama 47%, Third Parties 1%, Nate Silver 0
I LOLed at that last bit.
Stephen: Bookmark this
http://teddysratlab.blogspot.com/2012/11/comment-statistics.html
(Via Instapundit)
should Silver’s accuracy takes a hit.
Remember: Silver couches his analysis in probabilistic terms. The question addressed in the link above is whether Silver’s model can be tested after the fact. The answer is yes.
– Orlando Key says he’s right.
Nate Silver wins nothing, except a copy of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. And a towel.
Oh, I’m going to be at the Romney/Ryan rally in West Chester, OH later. Mr. Green, you want a sitrep on it?
I would love one — please!
Mr. Green, how would you want me to send it to you? I might be able to add in photos.
Photos would be great. I’m always reachable at vodkapundit@mac.com.
Unless I’m on vacation or passed out, of course.
Wish I’d heard that earlier, Jason, I work days not that far from West Chester; could have dropped by after work. :/
Always the last to know… {sigh}
Have to be careful…
A win WITH PA and NOT Ohio (or others as a buffer) WILL be contested.
PA had “minimal” storm damage, but a Romney win here WILL BE contested due to the alleged “lower turnout” from imaginary supressed Obama voters.
Storm struck NY, NY, & Conn were never available to Romney, but those bastards WILL contest PA if he wins it.
Mark my words.
In PA, they won’t be able to claim that the voter ID law suppressed the turnout, since they succeeded in suspending it.
This one is going to the courts, even if Mitt’s best case turns into a lowball.
If it’s real close, there will be a civil war of sorts.
Rule .308; No mercy asked, none given.
Ohio tied? thats hillarious. if Ohio were truly tied, you have more than one Rasmussen poll showing a Romney lead. Anyone want to send me a link to those polls…
If Wisconsin is the difference, which seems to be a possible scenario, then Romney will look like a genius for picking Ryan.
And don’t forget: Ryan has Ohio connections as well. He’s a graduate of Miami University, a high-quality state school that produces fiercely loyal alumni.
Wisconsin will NOT come in unless:
1. The Uof W is strictly scrutinized for illegal voting.
and
2. The 5k+ military ballots that are lost or have not been delivered to the servicemen from Wi are received and counted.
J. Christina Adams: what is the status of #2???
“…then Romney will look like a genius for picking Ryan”
I always thought Romney looks like a genius because…
well…hes a GENIUS.
Like him or hate him, the dude is smart.
Obama?
Stupid and small minded at 100 paces.
At arms length, he’s BIDEN Dumb for cripes sake!
The only thing worse at this time of the year, other than taking a vacation, is to run in the NYC Marathon within Staten Island, while waiting for Mayor Bloomberg to hand you a soda bottle.
What size bottle? I hope it’s within regulation size.
Considering that this is the nanny state, they’ll find a way to screw up their own rules, and give me a big gulp by accident.
And then take it away from me when they realize what they did. And then penalize me for their mistake.
IMO, Ohio and Iowa both belong in “Leans Romney” right now. I’m hopeful for Wisconsin but not counting on it.
And I have a feeling Pennsylvania shouldn’t be “Leans Obama.”
Rasmussen still has WI at 49-49, so it really will come down to turnout there. Scott Walker has built an impressive turnout machine, which was able to save his bacon from one of the most determined (and well-financed) recall efforts in US history.
Don’t count WI out yet.
Wisconsin went to Scott Walker earlier in the year, and I don’t think that the voting public there has changed all that much. It probably will be close, but the fact that Walker won pretty big earlier on, and that Paul Ryan is a hometown boy, means Wisconsin is likely to break for the GOP.
Don’t forget that there are most likely a large number of “BGVers” in the state (just not in Madison).
Okay, then. All three of those states in the “Tie” column should be in “Leans Romney” by my reckoning, and Pennsylvania no worse than “Tie.”
Way to suppress the optimism, there.
All is going as I would wish it.
Therefore, being on the side of the Stupid Party, I’m scared to death.
Here’s my fear: The Reps will run the table (White House, House, Senate, new Supremes) but blow the aftermath, a la 2004-08. In other words, we need a “fundamental de-transformation” of the country — not just a mercy killing of the worst of Obama, but a re-ordering of the social contract away from federal responsbility and toward personal responsibility and federalism. But the Reps will be content with much smaller gains, and we’ll be left with a rancid residue of Obamism that will still sink us, but later rather than sooner.
Yes. The Party of Stupid will inevitably live up to its name. Let us hope it’s later rather than sooner.
But what am I saying? Let’s not get cocky.
I fear this as well but I think we all are underestimating the circular firing squad to happen in the Democrat party if O loses. And in so doing might greatly fracture their coalition. If their Dear Leader goes there’s going to be a big power struggle and this will be good for us.
Romney must remember two political rules: 1. The President must have “killer instinct” and 2. “In victory – revenge”.
A 4th Bush term will destroy the republican party.
1. No child left behind two.
2. massive expansion of farm subsidies two.
3. Iraq war three.
Give me Austrian economics and let the Arab world burn. The Islamic social system is hopeless.
You do realize the fire will spread to here? It’s like living in a fire trap apartment building and the people down the hall are throwing Molotov cocktails at each other.
“Women are your fields: Go then, into your fields whence you please.
~~Quran 2:223
Oh, ye of little faith.
Remember people called “Tea Party” members? They’re still around, and they’re still busy. Just not so much in the headlines.
This is a good thing.
Has anyone seen this yet?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/02/the-obama-defectors/
Is it just me, or is the WaPo saying “Obama can’t get his 2008 numbers, and many of them are shifting to the GOP”?
The likelihood of a landslide for Romney is getting better and better.
I drove down MLK Drive in my town today (Tarpon Springs,Fl). Last year, it was awash with Obama yard signs. This year–six Obama signs and one for Romney.
I’ll bet that many Democrat-cast ballots will have the Presidential choice unmarked.
Don’t worry – there are Democrat officials to correct those mistakes. :-/
I commend top everyone Jay Cost’s latest post to help add a little more perspective on the likely outcome. My most fervent hope is that we may wake up on Wednesday, if not go to bed early Wednesday morning, knowing that Mitt has won, and not having to wait for a recount in Ohio. Here’s Cost:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-why-i-think-romney-will-win_660041.html
Cost is always worth reading. Thanks for the heads up.
Cost has a good point, which is that in a year when the polls show dramatically opposite results, it may be better to look for other indicators.
Everybody biting their nails should do that, and not limit it to the two things Jay talks about either. Other than a large number of polls with top lines that show toss-ups, what does the Fraud have going for him? It’s hard to think of much. Enthusiasm? much lower than 2008 A record of success? hardly Great debate performance? the opposite actually. A country full of librals? polls say the country is conservative leaning. A great campaign team? maybe in 2008, this year the campaign is all negative. An October surprise? maybe but it better happen soon. So far, there is Benghazi that has to hurt the Fraud, if just a little, and Sandy, which may be moving into negative territory for the Fraud as well. Staten Islanders aren’t too happy with their big government at the moment, and liberal turnout in Philly and Virginia might be dampened.
About the only positive things you can say for Zero are pravda and voter fraud. But he had those at max volume in 2008 as well.
Whereas Romney is up all over the map, and not just the electoral map: momentum, enthusiasm, registrations, early voting, debate performance, VP performance, newspaper endorsements, Benghazi impact, better campaign than McCain, fairly positive message, a failed opponent, volunteers, anecdotal evidence of support via signs rallies etc., and more.
Nobody doubts Romney will do much better than McCain. The only question really is whether it will be enough to overcome an evil opponent. And the two most respected pollsters say it is enough.
Personally, I think the bifurcation in the polls results from a deliberate attempt by the thugs to eliminate Romney, who has always been tied or better. Zeros entire strategy was to eliminate Romney, so why should we believe that these Demoratic polls with ther D+8 voter samples are anything else but the point men for the strategy.
Well, this will be all null and void after Barry declares a state of emergency for New England and cancels the elections.
You know… for the children…. or the middle class…. or for those roaming the streets of New York City looking for affordable birth control during this time of crisis.
That’s not going to happen for two reasons:
1) Elections are state responsibilities, Obama has now power to cancel them.
2) It would be counterproductive. The Presidency is decided by the electors chosen. Canceling elections in the northeast would rob Obama of 94 votes (assuming Pennsylvania stays blue) while only taking 5 from Romney.
Stephen, standing in line for an hour-and-a-half for early voting in one of the more conservative areas of Fl, enthusiasm is very strong. We have a lot of amendments, which is slowing voting, and also causing the not-so-enthusiastic to go back home. I would say this is definitely benefiting Romney. In all the years we have lived in this community I have never seen anything like these lines.
I’ve been juggling, weighing and balancing states for months now. I think I’ll say something nobody else has said. Outside of my home state (Minnesota is not going Romney) I haven’t a clue.
So I’m going to stick with the prediction I made a year ago. It seems as likely now as it was in 2008.
Although it’s not one of the states that is considered vital for either campaign, I believe the candidate that wins Virginia will win the country.
On election night, Romney will take the early lead in Virginia because the most conservative counties are the smaller ones in the south of the state. They report first and the more conservative candidate (I think that’s Romney, but I’m not 100% sure) always wins these counties.
As the evening wears on the heavilly populated northern counties report. Some of these are really suburbs of Washington DC. They will vote for the more liberal candidate (probably Obama, unless Mitt has changed his mind again by election day). The lead the conservative candidate has built up will start to slip.
Among the last to report in Virginia will be the Annapolis Naval Base. This used to be a Republican stronghold, but in 2008 Annapolis went for Obama. If our servicemen return to the Republican fold Romney wins. If they don’t, Obama wins.
Either campaign will tell you they can win without Virginia, but as an indicator of how the entire country is feeling, I believe the race in Virginia will mirror the national results. The winner here will be the winner overall.
For those who disagree and want to play breakdown. Romney has Florida and North Carolina. Obama has Pennsylvania and Ohio. I haven’t a clue about Colorado or any of the other toss up states. If you don’t like my theory that whoever wins Virginia wins the race, just substitute Wisconsin.
Do you mean Norfolk? Annapolis is in Maryland.
I’m sure he must have.
Serious mistake. Sorry about that.
I stand by the rest.
I have a hard time believing that Obama is going to hold on to votes centered around a military base.
Annapolis is in Maryland, not Virginia.
An interesting phenomonen has taken place in the Virginia DC suburbs over the past 5-6 years. It used to be that a lot of the Washington-area defense and NASA contractor offices were spread about evenly between Maryland and Virginia. However, because Maryland has been jacking up taxes and passing stupid laws that make it more expensive for hi-tech companies to operate there, most of the Maryland offices have moved around to the other side of the Beltway. And of course, a lot of the people who work in those offices moved with them. Since these workers tend to vote more conservative, their becoming concentrated in Virginia has helped to offset the D.C. Democrat contingent there, while having no effect on Maryland which was already a blue state.
I think the only reason that Obama received any mitary votes was because he said he was going to get us out of the desert and stop the wars and send the troops home.
Four years later they know better, and won’t do it again.
Obama doesn’t have Ohio and he’s in trouble in PA. Even the NYT thinks that about PA.
So, a little more on the anecdotal front, FWIW:
I live in a place so blue, it looks like a set of nads after its host went out with a naked Kate Upton sitting on his lap for 4 hours. San Francisco.
I walked around this week with my Field Notes and pen and have a count of every car bumper sticker, window sign (don’t have lawns here) or anything that gives support to the Obama campaign. Mind you, I walk about 1 1/2 hrs worth of my time per day, (about 2-3 miles) around the city. Here’s what I found:
- 8 bumper stickers (3 of which were ’04 stickers)
- 6 window signs (No “Hope” ones either)
Now, probably 9 out of every 10 voters here are going for Barry, but if they can’t find any enthusiasm amongst the kool-aid drinkers, that says a lot. Contrary to popular opinion (Steve you probably know this from your time out here long ago), SF isn’t a city populated with people donning leather chaps, ball gags and Che Guevera shirts (all those our per capita reflects a clear anomaly from the norm). Mostly, SF is just a ton of well-to-do white folks, who work hard and have a lot of guilt about it. Voting D makes them feel good, even though it is far from their best interests.
Barry in ’08 was the perfect embodiment of the projection of this guilt. However, these folks know incompetence when they see it and 4 years of it has left them with an irreconcilable “Meh.” They’ve been conditioned to believe that Republicans are evil, so they aren’t exactly switching sides yet. But just based on anecdotes, if you’re a radical leftist holding the highest office in the world and you’ve lost San Francisco, you are ‘effed.
Get out and vote!
In my personal experience, San Francisco consists mostly of hookers and video rental stores and a seedy strip joint. Of course, I lived near the corner of Geary and Polk.
Ha! Netflix killed the video stores and they’ve been replaced with trendy bars. Too bad they didn’t cater to the natural market and open up brothels instead.
Actually, right at Geary and Leavenworth, there is one of my favorite whiskey bars ever: Whiskey Thieves. You’d love it. They shun the trendy vibe and go for quality. The satellite jukebox puts it over the top. If you can pry away from the vodka and get down with brown, I highly recommend it.
BTW, I’m an idiot. I meant to say, the bumper sticker count had 3 ’08 Obama stickers.
Ugh.
I’m guessing that there’s going to be a surprise in this election: a previously solid-blue state that breaks for Romney, or at least comes close. I think it may be New Jersey. Chris Christie seems to be pretty popular there, and Sandy is going to suppress some of the D-leaning vote near the coast, favoring the R-leaning votes further inland.
I live in central Virginia, heavily populated with African Americans. Four years ago you couldn’t walk 1/4 mile down the major thoroughfare without seeing twenty Obama/Biden signs. This year there are still Obama signs, but the enthusiasm is just not here. In the very liberal town of Charlottesville, my husband says the same thing- the Obama signs/bumber stickers are nowhere to be seen. The only bumber stickers out there are for ’08. I have heard, but not seen first-hand, that the socialist republic of Northern Virginia is trending the same way as C-ville. When I drive down to see my daughter at college, I see HUGE signs for Romney/Ryan and dinky little signs for Obama/Biden.
I have high hopes that my adopted state of Virginia will return to sanity and vote the carbuncle on the fanny of this great republic out of office on November 6th!
I had to laugh because after reading your post my first thought was that Obama must see our Declaration of Independence, Bill of Rights and Constitution as carbuncles on the fanny of his fundamentally transformed People’s Republic of Amerika.
I live in the Nova enclave known as the Arlington S.S.R. (Soviet Socialist Republic) and I have unfortunately seen no sign whatsoever that Zero is any less popular here today than he was 4years ago. This place is swarming with O bumper stickers, and very few for Romney. The one thing I have seen is occasional R signs in windows, but it’s still rare. A republican couldn’t be elected to dog catcher in this place. I can only hope the rest of the State balances it out in end.
Little more understandable in NoVa — as Mel Brooks so eloquently put it in “Blazing Saddles” — “Gentlemen, we have to protect our phoney baloney jobs!” (Harumph!) When over half of the Top 25 highest income counties in the United States are in the areas around Washington D.C., and when it’s an area that manifestly doesn’t make anything or serve as a base for any major national private sector business (OK, Five Guys), the money has to be coming from somewhere to get those incomes that high, and it’s from big government and groups there with highly-paid representatives to lobby big government.
There’s been no recession in the Washington D.C. metro area over the past four years, because taxpayers from across America have kept the area from going into recession. No shock there that those same people would want to keep the Obama gravy train going.
“I have high hopes that my adopted state of Virginia will return to sanity and vote the carbuncle on the fanny of this great republic out of office on November 6th!”
Carbuncle? I would have said hemmorhoid….
Too true- could also have gone with “boil”- any of them are properly nasty though….
I’m really currious how NYC et al will handle the election. I mean NYS goes to the Dems based almost exclusivly on the NYC +suburbs around it vote. Much outside of the city, it is likely to go Romney. I’m thinking 1 in 5 for Romney, so possible, but not likely, and barely plausible. >shrugg< … still if soemthing like that happened, it would be a 20+EC vote shift.
I give Obama a 75% probability of relection but for different reasons than Nate Silver. Remember, only 100,000 votes in Ohio stood between Kerry and the White House. He could have been President with 48.5% of the vote. Given the electoral map that is the threshold for an Obama victory. I think Obama could win with as little as 48% of the vote but that depends on storm induced low voter turnout in NYC and New Jersey.
75% based on what data? Or is it more of a feeling?
Gut feeling mixed with fear and loathing.
The Storm has no effect on NY NJ or Conn. Electors, Romney was never in play, but it does effect the “popular” totals.
Watch out for PA!…we had MINIMAL storm damage, but they WILL contest the result “due to storm reduced voter turnout” if Romney wins with PA’s electors.
They will even “add” the “projected democrats” in shoe-in NY NJ and Conn that couldnt make it to the polls, adding them to the “corrected popular vote totals” and argue “proof” that Obama won the Popular AND the Electoral numbers.
Its WAR here in Bucks County, this is an election based on absolute HATRED.
Our Teachers Union went on strike and delayed school openings this year (100K per year and they STRIKE?) So the parents the Unions are at each others throats.
Proud Smug and Threatening talk from the Teachers Union about protests/work-to-contract-only stances if Romney wins. Its getting ugly.
And, there is an absolute CERTAINTY Philly will erupt, win or lose…
They will burn the town happy, or burn the town sad..
That’s ”His People”
Sandy left them on shaky ground going into the election. Pennsbury was closed for three days because of the storm. No way Pennsbury strikes considering that we had a strike during my Junior year of high school and that didn’t go well for the Teacher’s Union. I have since moved away, but my parents are still there fighting to ban teacher strikes. Neshaminy won’t strike again either, but Council Rock just might be stupid enough.
Really?
The Last Pennsbury strike went very well for the teachers, they got everything they asked for, and the test scores are still shitty, they actually got WORSE…more money, less accountability, it was a win/win for thier Teachers!
” Neshaminy won’t strike again either, but Council Rock just might be stupid enough”
Dude, Neshaminy already struck THIS YEAR, in SEPTEMBER…
Even though Neshaminy is a mixed middleclass/blue collar district where the median family income is about 50K, most of the the TEACHERS dont live there….they live in “Council Rock Teachers Neighborhoods”…fancy towns like New Hope, Upper Makefield, Solebury, Buckingham, Newtown Borough etc where the AVERAGE C. R. TEACHERS SALARY IS 100 GRAND
So Neshaminy went on STRIKE (again) to get closer to a “Council Rock Salary” They were only 10% off, now they are 2% below, but Neshaminy test scores are in the basement, and like Pensberry, have gotten WORSE in direct proportion to their disgusting pay raises.
C.R. will, of course, go on strike next (they always do right after a Neshaminy strike) because Council Rock teachers belong to THE CULT OF INFLATED SELF-OPINION, and they cant STAND the idea of any “blue collar” district being paid nearly the same as them…
They are the HIGHEST paid teachers in the State of Pennsylvania, and will remain so even if every other home must go into foreclosure due to the Tax Increases to meet their Opinion of Themselves..
Its always a Three-way Pissing Contest with those unions, and we’re stuck in the crossfire with NO VOICE AT ALL concerning their salaries.
Yeah, its Bloody Red Hot Anger at Public Unions in this part of PA.
Romney has a decent shot if we can blunt the Voter Fraud.
Philly will burn either way…Obamas “people” will wreck the place… in Joy or Sorrow, they will wreck the place for sure
Obama lost this election four years ago we just haven’t heard the thud yet.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/11/obamas_loss_inevitable_for_years.html
My prediction:
Gov. Romney takes: CO, FL, NH, VA for 261 EC votes
Pres. Obama takes: IA, MI, NV, PA, WI for 259 EC votes
(Sorry, Stephen, but Romney can’t win MI. No way. And I don’t believe that anyone has ever been elected President who didn’t win his home state. Romney has two home states, MI and MA, and he can’t win either.)
The whole nine yards comes down to Ohio, and I believe:
1. Obama has recovered enough momentum.
2. Obama’s handling of hurricane Sandy helped him.
3. Romney hasn’t really connected in Ohio.
4. Romney’s move to PA signals that he needs another solution to the EC math.
5. The bailout of auto industry will tip the scales for Obama.
Sorry, but I think Obama wins. The biggest mistakes:
1. History. As I stated above, Romney gives up a lot by not winning his home state.
2. Romney has to know that the LSM would cover for The One. Therefore, he needed to reach out — with substance — directly to voters.
3. Romney needed to be the adult in the room LONG before the debates. Let Obama talk about Romney’s taxes, big bird, and binders. He should have a serious conversation about (1) the debt, (2) the dangers of qualitative easing, and (3) what’s wrong with American competitiveness. [One annoying thing is that Obama is trying to convince Americans that "investing" in education will yield a better educated workforce that will -- magically -- attract jobs. "Build it and they will come." Nonsense. Businesses don't create jobs because there are people to hire. They hire people they need to take advantage of opportunities. If Obama keeps increasing the risks and decreasing the rewards, businesses will go elsewhere.]
4. When Obama failed to tell Americans what his vision was for the next four years, Romeny should have told them what the plan was:
4a. “Soaring” energy costs
4b. Thousands of pages of new regulations
4c. Greenhouse gas regulations and taxes that will kill jobs and create new inflationary pressures
4d. An end to Obamacare waivers, causing tens of thousands of people to lose their jobs
4e. Huge increases in health insurance costs for young people
4f. Millions of families losing their health insurance
4g. Millions more permanently unemployed and a permanent drag on the economy
4h. GM going bankrupt — again
Don’t forget that Newt Gingrich won South Carolina, but the historical norm failed to secure his nomination. Trends are not certainty’s.
That depends on how you define “home state.” George W. Bush was born in Connecticut. Woodrow Wilson, though born in Virginia, was previously governor of New Jersey which went for Hughes in 1916.
If you say so.
Can’t recover what he never had.
If you say so.
He’s winning the early vote.
Not necessarily.
BWAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
I think you’re way overstating Obama’s case here. Of the states you listed, I say the only ones Obama has a good shot at are NH, NV, and MI. They’re calling IA close but I don’t buy it; it’s Romney’s. WI will be a pickup because the progs are already demoralized after failing to unseat Walker but Romney voters are too fired up (more so, I’m sure, knowing the state is in play). And I think PA was going to fall to Romney even before Sandy.
NH is in my wild card list because after all, it’s still New England. MI has been in and out of play for a while but I can’t believe for a second that any ground Romney gained in that state was ever lost; his campaign just isn’t giving up ground, and it keeps advancing. With his ties there, I think he’ll win it, but I’m less confident than I am about the others. And NV could tip either way, depending on how the Reid Dirty Tricks Machine plays out; as others have said, that machine mostly only works for him.
You have the fraud at 259 and Romney at 261 and you say Obama wins? Not impossible I guess but it’d be pretty surprising to see him pull that off.
Unmentioned: Obama starts off already having lost 6 electoral votes from states he carried in 2008 as a result of the census: 2 in OH, 2 in NY, one in PA and MA- to states which there’s no way he carries: TX, SC, and AZ.
After all the Akin ugliness he may still take MO. McCaskill is a hardcore Obama bootlicker (and she is ticked he hasn’t shown her any support ),and people dislike her greed,her husbands millions made off owning housing projects and their “forgotten” taxes.
IL already has vote freezes in some towns because of voter fraud.But that occurs every election. IL votes should not count since voter fraud is a sport there.
My friends in OH ,who voted Barry boy last time, are all going with Mitt.
Vote and keep your fingers crossed!
Btw watch out for buggy voting machines. It’s taking 3 – 4 tries to get the vote to stay on Romney .The ballot screen resets itself to Obama.(IL & MO )
The voting machine we have in Ohio also has a printed hard-copy you can view before you press “vote.” I always scan that to be sure the machine worked.
“Even if Obama wins next week, his legacy is one of great potential that was instantly squandered.”
If The One wins, he wins.
If he wins, he will accomplish everything that he needs to accomplish.
FL, NC, VA, IA, OH are safely in the Romney column. Looks like Obama’s firewall states are now Nevada, Michigan, State 52 and State 57.
My prediction: At 9:43 on Fox news, Michael Barone will call PA for Romney and the race for Romney. Millions of Tea Party members will quickly change the channel to MSNBC to watch Americans being called racists by the insane, delusional guy that came in last place on Jeopardy. A victory for freedom. A victory for fiscal sanity. A victory for competence. A victory for all Americans. A nightmare for the main stream media.
I can’t tell you how tempted I am to tape MSNBC the whole night just to watch Chris Matthews go berserk.
It seems to me that Colorado should be red. Among other things, Gary Johnson has been wooing the Choom gang at Boulder, as there’s a pot decriminalization measure on the ballot.
Also early votes show (R) ballots up by about 3%.
Northern VA is nothing but government workers and government contractors. Both groups want a fiscally solvent government, because that’s how they get paid. Both groups want a President that will insist the Senate pass a budget. These Continuing Resolutions are hurting agencies and businesses. It’s stressful, bad for productivity, bad for business, must also bad for morale. There are a lot of secrets flowing around Northern VA, but the one most people don’t talk about is how HUGE Romney is going to win up here.
I moved to the San Francisco bay area in 2007. Every other car had an anti-bush bumper sticker at the time. Today Obama stickers are rare. You do see Nobama stickers on suv’s sometimes.
I’ll make the same prediction I made right after Romney picked Ryan: Romney wins NC, FL, VA, CO, NH and WI, giving R/R a grand total of 271 electoral votes. This is because I think they’ll lose Oiho. But hey, it would be a win. And that’s all I’m hoping for at this point.
You know what would be great? If I’m dead wrong and Mitt wins some early state that I don’t see going to him, like PA. I’d go to bed early with the DVR set to MSNBC so that I could watch and rewatch over the next four years whenever I’m feeling down. Worst case though, would be seeing VA go to Barry because the night would be over extra early. Thankfully, I’ve got enough alcohol on hand to dull the pain for a few hours, but that would eventually wear off.
I am a Northern Virginia voter-tried to vote early today but the line was out of the building and into the parking lot-so will get up early on Tuesday.
Lots of 0 signs- but on my way to work at the intersection of Quaker Ln. and King Street (in Alexandria) there were women holding signs saying “WOMEN ARE ABOUT MORE THAN ABORTION”.
This is supposed to be the liberal part of Virginia + this is where the “white guilty rich” live.
THERE IS HOPE we will all have a good night sleep on Tuesday night – GO VOTE EARLY!
Sitting here on the central coast of CA. Friday night. D-4. Bombarded with Obama commercials. Um, what’s up with that? Lots and Lots of Obama commercials.
I repeat…California??? Why waste a dime in California?
You accidentally have it tuned to CNN?
Now for the interesting scenario: Romney wins PA, FL and VA for a 269-269 tie.
Would someone please explain why the RealClear Intrade odds are 67% for Obama??????????
I just bought that, 2 to 1 odds for Romney, bargain!
New York and California are blue and Texas is red. Obama stands on firmer ground.
I might be crazy, but I think the intrade market is small enough to be manipulated by a motivated propaganda team interested in advancing the ‘Demoralization’ strategy – there is nothing that I don’t consider team O unwilling to try.
Even an Igno ramus like me knows that NOBODY is dumber than Joe Biden. Go ahead; try to prove me wrong. The last guy THAT dumb was a troglodyte.
I’m one of those wonks that doesn’t look at just the numbers, but rather looks inside the numbers. The most concise way to convey my prognostications is simply to say that what happened in the 2010 mid-terms cannot be dismissed. If you were to simply look at RCP’s average of polls, it looks terribly close. Its not. For example; the polls had the WI recall election essentially neck and neck. We all saw how that panned out. Nothing has changed since 2010 that could negligibly effect a difference in 2012′s results. Many will present arguments to the contrary. Aside from the obligitory GOP voter suppression meme that will follow the drubbing on Tuesday, those voices will fall largely silent.
I have a post about that very thing scheduled to go up later this morning.
I find it fractionally comforting to know that I’m not out on this island all by myself.
The dollar will not survive a second Obama term.
I don’t know how many authors/readers of PJM think so, but i am fairly convinced that the fraud in the WH will be “declared” the winner of the November 6th election, through electoral FRAUD of a scale not seen before in US electoral history.
When polls take samples of D+5/6/7/8 etc, they do so NOT because they account for a higher “civic responsibility” (they euphemistically call it “democrat voter turnout”) among inner city minorities, than the rest of us but in reality they do so because that is how much they expect the margin of electoral fraud to be. Double voting, dead people voting, illegal voting, electronic voting fraud and other voter fraud schemes, all that in a bundle is what is reflected in those samples, like for example in this D+9 poll:
http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/03/marist-poll-in-ohio-has-d9-sample/
An 80% voter turnout in inner city Cleaveland, in 2008 – compared with an average 52% eligible voter turnout in the US as a whole that year – is a sobering index of the magnitude of electoral fraud in inner cities in this country. I fully expect the magnitude of electoral fraud to increase on November 6th. It will be shameful if the people of this land will stand for such fraud this time around.
One more point, expressed so clearly by this article:
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/03/Big-Labor-To-Deploy-2-000-Poll-Monitors-On-Election-Day
In a typical thugish, Alinsky-ite tactic, the left and the union thugs try to deflect attention from the real electoral fraud underway as we speak by attacking a non existent “voter suppression” effort by the GOP.
These so-called “poll monitirs” mentioned in the article cited, aren’t there to monitor polls but to disorient, impress by their actions/presence and possibly intimidate conservative voters in GOP leaning precincts. I experienced this first hand while early voting on Tuesday this week in Florida.
To summarize my voting experience: by just looking at the people that were handling the early voting process at a City’s Public Library in Central Florida, as well as the overall set up where I voted, at the end I left the place having little confidence that the vote I electronically cast for Romney was going to count for Romney at the end.
Alright, I’m game. I’ll be traveling most of next week, so I wanted to go on record.
First, I hope I’m wrong, but this is my cold blooded projection.
Second, very hard to disagree with S. Green, J. Cost and M. Barone.
Third, the call:
Final EC – Obama = 270 / Romney = 268
Popular vote – Obama = 49.0
Romney = 50.3
Other = 00.7
Total Ballots cast = 135,442,071
States with litigable results: Wisconsin and New Hampshire
My more granular guesses are at http://alphaursaminor.blogspot.com/
I’d like to throw another unlikely Romney flip out there. From the ground here in NJ, I wouldn’t be surprised if NJ surprised everyone else and went red. Not that I’m exactly EXPECTING it, but I wouldn’t be the least surprised, ESPECIALLY with what I’m hearing after Sandy (but even before).
NJ did go red in 80 and 84, and a lot of that scenery is looking the same today (hey…we even have even/odd gas lines again). It also was a red in 88, and would have been in 92 as well if Perot’s 500k votes had gone to Bush.
People here are, by and large, NOT grateful to a FEMA-in-shining-armor, but PISSED at the way this is being handled. His praise of Obama has even annoyed many of Christie’s supporters, although most understand that a) Christie is a good governor, not a saint and b) that one must do such things when dealing with the likes of petty-thug Obama in order to not have even the few, relatively ineffectual federal resources pulled for spite. I have not heard one supportive comment regarding Obama’s visit or handling of the situation from any voter I’ve spoken to or overheard at the diner.