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VodkaPundit

Wargaming the Electoral College

November 2nd, 2012 - 10:51 am

Remember, states Obama won in 2008 are in blue text, and states McCain won are in red.

Oops. No red. MO was the last holdout (IN and NC were the first to go) and it’s dropped off since last week. In fact, it’s looking increasingly likely that Todd Akin will end up beating Claire McCaskill. He’s still the underdog, but MO is going Big Red. Of course, if he wins, then the GOP will spend the next six years flinching every time he starts to speak — but that’s the price you pay for craptaculent candidates.

Anyway. The battlegrounds are now exclusively in Obama ’08 states. That’s Mittmentum.

I’m still pretty sure Romney will take ME-02, giving him one of ME’s four EC votes, for a safe total of 207. He has another 55 in leaners, giving him a decent grasp on 262. But that’s eight shy of 270 — Romney needs at least OH or WI out of the Tie column to win.

Obama has more safe votes with 216, but his leaners are far weaker at just 26, for a smaller cushion of 242. He needs OH and WI to go blue.

Let’s see if we can get a better measure of Mittmentum by setting the Wayback Machine for October 3, 2008.

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