Wargaming the Electoral College
Mitt has the big Mo, which is why I expect IA and OH both to break his way. And NV? Word on the streets of Las Vegas is that Harry Reid’s machine has been bussing people in from who-knows-where to do you-know-what. I don’t expect upstate Mormon enthusiasm to be able to overcome dirty politics and dirty unions. The fix is in, big-time, in the Silver State.
There’s word, too, of rigged voting machines in NC, but I don’t expect even the Democrats to be able to achieve a big enough margin of cheating to overcome Romney’s advantage there.
So there you have it. As of now, it looks like a squeaker for Mitt. If he’d get more aggressive, he could pluck off a blue state or two, and really hammer this corrupt and inept administration right into the ground.
If Mitt wins by >5% in the popular vote, he will grab Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, too. Of course, I don’t know if Mittmentum will keep going to achieve that big of a victory, but it’s what I’m hoping for because it will have a huge impact on down ticket races, notably the Senate.
Presumably Harry Reid would have also pulled out the stops on his own election, yet the election for that seat against a weak candidate was settled by a very small number of votes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_2010
In an election that might have ended the career of the loathesome Harry Reid and saved us all from Obamacare, 16 thousand Nevada citizens voted for “none of the above” which is an option in Nevada. If you take Sharron Angles votes and all of the goofy votes, you separate the two by only 7000 or so votes.
Lessons for Nevada Voters:
1. “None of the Above” feels good, but don’t, ok? just don’t.
2. I know it might be fun to vote for ‘Peace and Freedom’ party, but don’t, ok?
3. The “Tea Party” candidate? Not Tea Party. You had to know that but apparently it didn’t matter.
Yes, I’m sure there will be shenanigans, but 7,000 votes is not something that cannot be overcome by a little Tea Party People action.
It’s a question of resources. Sure, Reid came close last time, but this year his machine is bankrolled by China (I mean really, let’s be up front about where the Obama campaign’s money is coming from).
Same thing for Wisconsin and Michigan. If Romney isn’t on the offensive there, I’d say it’s because he has evaluated his cash resources and decided he can’t actually win up there. The unions still have the infrastructure this year, and need only a money advantage to win. The Obama campaign has money. It’s probably enough that they’re being forced to spend it in the Upper Midwest, Pennsylvania, and Nevada instead of focusing on Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. It’s likely that Romney is better off focusing on the latter three states, especially Ohio where they’ve been cleaning up the voter rolls.
After another four years of Walker’s reforms and GM/Chryco failure, who knows? Maybe the unions will be weak enough that those states will be a walk-over for Republicans.
Non-Chicagoan have no idea about the scandals, vandals and Da Vinci’s that can get put into play…in a “By Any Means Necessary” outfit.
You can’t think dirty enough, sleazy enough, criminal enough. The Lawless Presidency is NOT going to have a lawful election process. Expect the worst.
Then multiply it by a trillion.
They WILL try to steal this election. They only need to do their dirty work in a couple of states. And, we won’t find out until it is too late.
Not just rigged voting machines in NC, but also over 2600 early votes for Obama ….from people 112 or older.
The fix is in in NC, too.
It always makes me sad that Minnesota’s so unlikely to actually go red. Rather depressing that it’s improbable my vote will ultimately make a difference… but it’s not going to stop me from getting out to vote anyway!
As I’ve been saying, what I’d really, really love to see is the equivalent of this happen to Obama when those votes are counted: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayLPl4yX5ew
Every vote counts, unless you want to listen to four years of the left screaming “illegitimate president” because Obama won the popular vote count and lost the electoral college. There are no red or blue states in the popular vote–only red votes and blue votes. And a not-small chunk of blue votes will be fraudulent.
Very true – it does help that it may well have a much bigger impact from that perspective, even if it doesn’t change electoral college results.
Dont discount the impact of 3M’s recent bad quarterly report.
There are still two weeks left to the election. Mitt has the momentum, and even with the “dirty tricks” that we’ll see in many states, I can’t see him losing most of those states that Mr. Green has listed in Romney’s camp. Anything over +1% for Romney means that it’s outside the “margin of laywer.” 2000 should be a reminder, that if you re-count the votes, you will uncover corruption and falsification just as much as you’ll find votes that weren’t properly tallied.
We also live in the age of flip cameras. I intend to take mine with me, and film everything that happens in the voting precinct. I hope that the Romney/Ryan campaign has many, many, many surrogates just to film and preserve documentation of the handling of voting tabulation.
Also, if momentum is on the side of the Romney campaign (and I’m seeing a massive GOTV process in Ohio), I also see Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin slowly moving towards the Romney side (indeed, we’re seeing polls that show that Romney is ahead in Pennsylvania). I also think, if the momentum continues, we’ll see a few “true blue” states like New Jersey and Connecticut go to the Romney campaign.
Obama just doesn’t have enough nefarious operatives to play whack-a-mole against the Romney surge.
I haven’t given up hope for NV, but I’ve had a feeling in my gut for quite a while now that PA and WI are gonna slip red. I’m skeptical on both, but there’s plenty of reason for hope. I don’t think even MI can be ruled out.
The big question now is how far the momentum can push Romney, and how much self-inflicted damage Obama will take, in the next 13 days. There are some serious signs of a preference cascade, and today the news came out that Obama knew about the nature of the Benghazi attack long before he claims he did. That news will percolate a bit in the next few days, while Gloria Allred’s attempt to unseal Romney’s testimony from an ancient divorce case will be a complete bust. I’m with Jason B here: We’re gonna see some blue states flip.
The so-called White House Insider mole is predicting that Obama has 7-8 states locked up: http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/10/24/white-house-insider-the-only-way-obama-wins-this-election-is-to-steal-it/
For the record, Jimmy Carter won 5 states plus DC in 1980. Just sayin’.
That’s a heck of an interesting link. I felt like I was missing parts of that article though, not knowing some of the inside references and not really sure who was telling what to Soros. Fascinating stuff anyway.
One of those 7 or 8 states is probably mine, but then if the Iran/Israel issues cause a preference cascade in the Jewish vote, who knows. It’d take a miracle to flip NY, but we could be looking at a storm of the century scenario anyway–perhaps even literally, if Sandy throws us a curve. If Sandy depresses downstate turnout, anything is possible, and I don’t know anyone voting R who wouldn’t dogsled their way to the polls if they had to.
RCP’s map says 10 states (including DC) are solid for Obama: CA, NY, IL, VT, MA, RI, DE, MD, DC, and HI. So I’m not sure which two or three of those aren’t considered a lock anymore. I’m inclined to believe these are all still locks, so if the Obama campaign has information to the contrary, it’s gone beyond panic mode.