Electoral-Vote.com picks Kerry, 283-246. They have WI, FL, IA and NM all going for Kerry, with NV and NH too close to call.
ElectionProjection goes for Bush, 286-252.
Greg Abbott says he’d “rather be in John Kerry’s position than George Bush’s.” And no wonder. The way he figures undecided will break on Tuesday, they give Kerry a substantial 297-241 win.
Tripias goes almost exactly the other way. Bush, 295/Kerry, 243.
You’ll notice a new map of the US at the top of the righthand column of this page. Currently, all states are gray. As election results come in Tuesday, I’ll be filling them in with the appropriate colors, along with running totals of the Electoral College vote.
For this one, I’ll have to stay sober – it looks to be a long night.
Here’s my last guess before the big day:
TradeSports bettors call it like so:
Note that bettors think Bush has less than a 60% chance of capturing Florida, Iowa, or Ohio – keeping those states effectively in play. Same goes for Kerry getting Wisconsin.
So Bush’s likely range of EC votes is really 227-291, and a range of 247-311 for Kerry. It would seem that going into the last two days of the campaign, TradeSports thinks Kerry’s base is firmer than Bush’s.
Commence nailbiting. . . now.
UPDATE: Frank Martin is not biting his nails.
Does the Kerry Campaign have it in for Fox News?
Mike M reports in again from Ohio.
This is about the third time I’ve sat down to rewrite this article, so I decided I had better just get it to Stephen or it might never get finished. I was going to write about the various steps Ohio is taking to fight voter fraud, but the stories and court cases are coming so fast that I can’t keep up with them.
My wife had the day off today, and tried to go vote (Georgia has early voting this week). When she arrived at the polling place, she was told the wait would be 4-5 hours.
To repeat what I said earlier in the week: Georgia is no battleground in 2004 (insert William T. Sherman jokes here). There is no question as to who is going to win the statewide races here; Bush and Johnny Isacson are both double-digit locks.
And the wait is still half a day to vote.
Take whatever predictions you read or hear over the next four days with 380 tons of salt. Nobody has ever seen an American election like this before.
Don’t do anything I wouldn’t do:
I’m out of here for today. Party tonight, then I’ll check back in tomorrow. Followed by a party tomorrow night. What’s left of me will kick into election gear on Sunday afternoon.
Yale Global’s Mark Glaser writes about blogs and bloggers:
In the US political sphere, boundaries are again being erased. Bloggers have led the charge to “fact check” the media, gaining prominence for pushing stories such as the questionable documents used by “60 Minutes II” in a report on President Bush’s National Guard service. In one case, Australian blogger Tim Blair unearthed a fabricated source in a Chicago Tribune story, leading to the reporter’s dismissal.
In these cases, bloggers have filled gaps in mainstream journalism. When corporate profits took center stage at media companies in the ’80s and ’90s, most news organizations cut back on fact-checkers and proofreading. A citizen brigade of thousands of interested readers checking controversial stories bolsters these strapped organizations. Consider it the new open-source method of fact-checking.
Despite the media rhetoric about bloggers being uninformed ranters in pajamas, and bloggers who deride the content of mainstream media (shortened to “MSM”), the two camps actually have a symbiotic relationship. The media needs bloggers for fact-checking, expert opinions, and for pushing stories on the edges. And the bloggers need the media as grist for their millsComments Off
I’ve never been known as “Jersey Steve.”
Just so you know.
Michele notices fresh hypocrisy from the left:
Eminem has become the poster boy for the left. The man who was once hailed as a racist, homophobic supporter of spousal abuse is now the king of the leftie world because he made an anti-Bush video. All is forgiven, Eminem! Bash those gays, make more videos about beating up women because you are golden, baby. As long as you come out against Bush, you could come out in favor of eating babies and no one would blink an eye.
Read the whole thing, please – it begins with a look at the reaction to BoSox pitcher Curt Schilling’s Bush endorsement.
NOTE: Hell, I won’t forgive Curt Schilling – but not because he endorsed Bush. Not hardly.
Russell Miller sent me a link to something cool – even if it is seventy-eight years old. (OK, in Internet time. It’s actually from Tuesday.)
What is it? A 48-minute radio interview with Mark Steyn.
Brava, Megan – for the reasoning even more than the conclusion.
I’ll try to get in a little blogging before the Halloween Hostilities – er, Festitivities – get going here after lunchtime.
Meantime, cats are not for sissies. At least mine isn’t. He can probably kick your dog’s ass. I know he can do it to my dog. Mostly because he thinks he’s a dog. The name Dingo probably doesn’t help.
He’s big. He drools. He fetches. I raised him like a dog, because that’s all I knew how to do.
I got him during my bachelor days, because I just didn’t know how to have a house without a pet. And a dog you can’t just leave at home while you go chasing tail in Denver all weekend. Then I got married, and we got a puppy. If I didn’t know how to have a house without a cat, I didn’t even want to try having a home without a dog.
Maybe that’s the difference. It’s not that cats are for sissies – they’re for people who haven’t put down roots yet. But a dog is a family pet.
Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.
. . .
The long, tortuous presidential contest has come down to who the ”security mom” thinks can best protect her family against terrorism. Based on current polling data, Bush has won that argument in the face of Kerry’s relentless attacks. That explains why the Democrat this week was not talking about health care or other standby issues of his party, but was trying to pierce Bush’s security shield by harping on the disappearance of munitions in Iraq.
Well, we all know how well that’s likely to work.
Ralph Peters on John Kerry and the “missing” explosives in Iraq:
Sen. Kerry knows this is a bogus issue. And he doesn’t care. He’s willing to accuse our troops of negligence and incompetence to further his political career. Of course, he did that once before.
Read the rest here.
Caught this one on Drudge and did a little Googling:
The world is on the brink of a major flu epidemicComments Off
Let’s hope it’s really the end for this murderous shit:
A gay New York City man comes out – as a conservative.
Here’s some polling data I’d dearly love to see pan out:
Despite the close race and memories from four years ago, 76% of voters expect we’ll know who won sometime on election night. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 14% expect it will take a few days to straighten things out while another 7% think it will take a week or more.
Please, let the majority be right this once. Pretty please.
A little perspective from George Will:
Despite Kerry’s reiteration that George Bush’s presidency is the first since Herbert Hoover’s to coincide with a net job loss, the public seems, unsurprisingly, unaroused. The unemployment rate (5.4 percent) is what it was when President Bill Clinton coasted to reelection in 1996. And the economy’s growth rate over the past four quarters (4.9 percent) is higher than the rate over the year before the 1996 election (4.0 percent). Kerry’s excoriation of Bush over budget deficits is blunted by the fact that while the government was running deficits in 47 of the past 55 years, gross domestic product has grown almost sevenfold and 79 million jobs have been created.
OK, we all already know what the big story is today:
Russian special forces troops moved many of Saddam Hussein’s weapons and related goods out of Iraq and into Syria in the weeks before the March 2003 U.S. military operation, The Washington Times has learned.
John A. Shaw, the deputy undersecretary of defense for international technology security, said in an interview that he believes the Russian troops, working with Iraqi intelligence, “almost certainly” removed the high-explosive material that went missing from the Al-Qaqaa facility, south of Baghdad.
So – who does it hurt and who does it help (if anybody)?
It hurts Vladimir Putin, at least in the US. Then again, he’s not exactly running for office here. Of course, France and Germany will be jealous that Putin was able to hide, if only for a year, just how deep his government was aiding Saddam. That’s something Paris or Berlin never managed to do.
It hurts Putin, too, in Chechnya. Seeing him cooperate with the likes of Saddam, just to cover his ass, will make them wonder what they can get away with.
It hurts John Kerry. His Monday-Tuesday line of attack has just been taken away — and by a story people will be talking about, instead of his campaign. It’s hard to see an upside.
It hurts George W Bush, and don’t think it doesn’t. Bush told us he “looked into Putrin’s soul” and found a man he could trust. Oops. However, Bush is helped also by anything which hurts Kerry, so he may end up treading water or better on this issue by the weekend.
Once again, real life got the best of me tonight. I’m a hundred emails behind and still have Halloween Weekend Prep to get done.
See you in the morning.
In the last week before the election, ABCNEWS is holding on a videotaped message from a purported al Qaeda terrorist warning of a new attack on America, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.
The terrorist claims on tape the next attack will dwarf 9/11. “The streets will run with blood,” and “America will mourn in silence” because they will be unable to count the number of the dead. Further claims: America has brought this on itself for electing George Bush who has made war on Islam by destroying the Taliban and making war on Al Qaeda.
ABCNEWS strongly denies holding the tape back from broadcast over political concerns during the last days of the election.
Most likely, the tape is an empty threat. But this is hardly the time to dismiss it off hand, or withhold it from the public.
UPDATE: I should probably have mentioned that the speaker on the tape is, or at least seems to be, an American.