I believe that the Iraqi government has already leaked their defense plans to Egypt’s Al-Ahram. I would be appreciative if you would check it out and tell me if you think it is disinformation. (URL link is not reliable)
“site map” “issue #600″ “Preparing for War”
Somebody seems to want U.S. armed services to know that the Iraqis plan to throw everything against the landings, in order to prevent troop concentrations. Does that mean that they have some unknown means to rapidly re-mobilize field artilery? Or that they would make first use of their remaining WMDs? I believe that a massive air bombardment will split the Iraqi leadership, and force a very bloody coup followed by unconditional surrender. I just can’t see the Iraqis sustaining a defense, let alone an effective counter-attack. Do you see some wild cards, that I don’t?
Saddam will certainly have some kind of secret weapons, that us civillians have no inkling of, waiting for us. If our special forces guys have been tracking down his scud launchers like I hope they have, those missiles will be gone in the first half hour of hostilities. What else does he have to deliver his WMDs? Any airplane he puts up will be shot down within minutes. As dumb as VP believes him to be, I just can’t imagine him not having somekind of doomsday tricks thought up. I just hope our intel guys have it figured out.
As for holding us at the beaches, I can’t see that as being possible, since we have complete air supremacy and easy access to Kurdistan in the north. Forcing us to fight in the cities is the only possible conventional defence I can imagine.
I can’t help but feel that Saddam will express his “displeasure” with an American-led U.N. indictment of the Ba’ath tenure by attempting to strike first. On paper, I suppose that’s a grave concern our military carries…but then, the phrase “1991 thirty day war” keeps circling my head. As strident as Saddam is, his army at large isn’t.
And I wouldn’t worry about city fighting, Mojo. From what I’ve read, not only are Saddam’s stormtroopers ill-equipped and untrained for urban warfare, but Saddam’s men–Sunni–are despised by the Shiite majority, who happen to populate Baghdad. When Saddam’s situation becomes so grave as to necessitate street-to-street, the RG may as well worry more about their “constituents” than our boys.
No doubt if Saddam does use “preemptive war” the brigades over at The Nation will justify it somehow.
“It is well that war is so terrible: we should grow too fond of it.” -R.E. Lee
His secret weapon is hardly secret. Two words.
We’ve got vaccine stockpiled, we should be all right unless he’s genetically manipulated it. But it’s going to go through India, China, Africa, the mid-east and Europe like a chainsaw.
Read “The demon in the Freezer” – http://cryptome.org/smallpox-wmd.htm or the more recent book of the same name.
I think trying to smuggle in one million atropine injectors says “Nerve Gas”, not small pox.
Smallpox is one word. And it incubates too slowly to prevent his ass being kicked. Not only that, it’s relatively easy to inoculate against. So as a weapon or deterrent, it’s fairly useless against us.
Aside from those killing points, I agree with everything you said, particularly “the”.
Yes, small pox (and every time I’ve read it it’s two words) makes a useless tactical weapon. And it’s easy to innoculate against if you have vaccine. And the vaccine is effective if the virus hasn’t been genetically futzed with.
But most of the world isn’t immune, no one’s gotten vaccinated in more than 20 years, since there’s no naturally occuring small pox in the world immunity levels are lower than they were 100 years ago. And the population is much more mobile, so it will spread faster, farther.
Given what SD’s done in the past, what do you suppose are the odds that he’s left orders to release it if he’s killed? Maybe the person holding the football won’t go through with it, but he probably doesn’t know what he’s really doing.
The atropine injectors are for nerve gas. His population is pretty much unprotected for small pox. Do you think he cares?