The Middle East Mess
Libya, Iraq, Syria, Iran, and the All the Same Old, Same Old Mess
Each country in the Middle East poses unique challenges. That said, gender apartheid, religious intolerance, tribalism, dictatorship, statism, and lack of transparency and free expression are widely shared in the region, and mean that any particular policy will almost immediately collide with some two millennia of habit and custom antithetical and often hostile to the values of the West. That the West is presently broke, multicultural, full of guilt and incapable of defending its values and history only confuses the issue even more.
Libya and Iraq
We are all glad that the Gadhafi regime is purportedly on its last legs. When I visited Libya in 2006, tragedy was what I saw—and a friendly population under the yoke of a psychopath. But I don’t think we have had much idea of what we were doing in Libya—a sort of diplomatic pastime secondary to presidential jet-setting and golfing. Moreover, I don’t see any hypocrisy in critiquing our confusion over Libya, as a supporter of the removal of Saddam Hussein. Wanting to use American power and influence to its fullest extent when going to war is preferable to not wanting to use all our power and influence when going to war. The hypocrisy is rather on the Left, which once damned the principle of intervention against an Arab Middle East oil-exporting nation that had not recently attacked us, only to support intervention against an Arab Middle East oil exporting nation that had not recently attacked us. In the Left’s defense, one could argue their consistency is that it’s OK if you have a UN vote, but irrelevant whether you have consent of the U.S. Congress.
Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was the object of 23 different Congressional authorizations (one should go back and read that October 2002 long list of “whereas”es), had been in hot and cold wars with us since 1991, attacked four neighbors, and in the heart of the ancient caliphate was hosting all sorts of terrorists. In a post-911 climate it made sense to reckon with him. Indeed, I think one of the great untold stories of Iraq was the carnage of Islamic terrorists who by volition promised that Iraq would be the central theater in jihad, flocked there, were killed and wounded in droves, and lost—and vastly weakened their cause. But in contrast, the West was apparently in the middle of a weird charm offensive with Gadhafi (one advanced by bought-and-paid-for American academics, European oil companies, and multicultural elites), and the result by 2010 was that Libya was considered no longer the 1986 Libya that Reagan had bombed.
Everybody at The Monterey County Herald should be embarrassed.
This is the best blog.
“When someone as rich and influential as Warren Buffett speaks, most people listen…” That opening line was child-like and groveling. I wouldn’t have signed that editorial, either.
Also, props to Doctor Hanson for his increased output this summer. It’s been noticed and appreciated.
VDH:
Stop responding to your critics. It only diminishes you and enhances them.
Pres. Reagan just laughed them off.
Be like Ron.
DDB
When someone who is rich and influential most people listen…that is, unless they are espousing non-leftist ideas. Then, the pointy-headed geeks in the propaganda machine gin up a smear campaign against them.
The class warfare card (and its ugly twin, the racial warfare card) gets swiped through the propaganda machine’s ATM whenever it is convenient for one of these robo-slanderers kneejerks out another article of anti-capitalist tripe.
Soak the rich polemics are mindless drivel, pablum for the brain dead lemmings of the left.
In the words of Maxine Waters, they can go straight to hell.
I am one of those pessimists of believe that whatever happens in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Yemen etc it will not be good. Many of our elite seem to believe that the “Arab Spring” (and summer I suppose) will inevitably lead to the “democratization” of these nations and some sort of governace on a western parliamentary model. I believe that such an outcome is highly unlikely. We are approaching the moment when we must directly face the fact that western democracy and Islam are completely incompatible and indeed may be the antithesis of each other.
During the 16th Century Islam, in the shape of the Ottoman Empire, reached it’s zenith of power. Only the coordinated action of the (Catholic) nations of Europe prevented the caliphate from spreading over the entire continent. The Ottomans were decisvely turned back from European conquest at Vienna(1529) and from control of the Mediterranean at Lepanto (1571.) Although still enormously powerful the Ottomans began their slow decline after Lepanto until they became the “sick man of Europe” by the mid-19th Century.
At roughly the same time as the siege of Vienna, two critical cultural events were taking place in Europe. By 1500 the printing press was gaining wide acceptance in Europe and literacy was rising dramatically. More specifically in 1517 Martin Luther posted his Ninety-Five Theses and lit the spark of the Reformation which spread in large part because of the availability of relatively cheap books. Luther’s emphasis on the primacy of individual belief, the centrality of the Gospels and the relative unimportance of a professional clergy created a new relationship between man, God and society in the West. The 18th Century Enlightenment would not have been possible without the Reformation and it is to the Enlightenment that the West owes its modern conceptions of citizenship (generally speaking) and the structure of it’s representative institutions.
Islam has never experienced anything like the Reformation. I am no expert in Muslim theology but it seems that Islam has never undergone the sort of “soul searching” (forgive the term) upheaval as Christianity faced post-Luther. Following Lepanto the Ottomans and most of the Muslim world lapsed into a growing political lethargy that, arguably, did not end until the emergence of Kemal Ataturk in 1919. During this time Islam remained unchanged. Also tribal loyalities, even with the veneer of Ottoman control remained the central fact of life for most Arab people.
Kemalist reforms only affected Turkey. The post-WWI was divided into artificially created nations, mandates and colonies by the British and French. Underneath all of this, below the surface, were (and are) the twin pulls of tribalism and Islam. It is unarguable that ever since World War II what passes for “stability” in the Mideast has been the result of the rule by “strongmen” of various hues. Now those strongmen are going away leaving….what?
It is both foolish and naive to believe that the successors to Qaddafi, Murbarak, Assad and the others will choose a governmental system that resembles that of Vermont. This demands a citizenry willing to give primacy to the state over that of their long-time religious institutions. Islam has been around one hell of a lot longer than concepts such as “Libya”, “Syria”, “Tunisia” and even modern “Egypt”. It seems almost inevitable that the result of the “Arab Spring” will be governments that are more tied to Islamic activists (like the Muslim Brotherhood) with little in common with the West. We (the United States and the west) are retreating from a physical presence in middle eastern afairs. This is inevitable but one has to wonder – Will those forces that were bottled up after Lepanto suddenly begin to reassert themselves? They will certainly have the money courtesy of their own oil resources and those of Wahhabist Saudi Arabia which will be glad to bankroll any and all forms of Muslim “activism” that don’t affect them and which help keep the the House of Saud in power.
Look for all of this, from Tunisia to Syria, to resutlt in a series of weak national governments with only a surface sheen of “western democracy.” Real internal power will be shared by the mlitary, some tribal leaders and an increasingly aggressive Islamist clergy looking to Iran as the “right” model of government. None of this will be in our interests.
Also – Dr. Hanson’s rejoinder to the Monterey Herald is fully justified. The Herald’s reasoning is both sophmoric and misleading. Ad hominem attacks on an individual in an unsigned article are both cheap and childish. It is also a little creepy to hear a newspaper use the phrase…” When someone as rich and influential as Warren Buffett speaks, most people listen….” I doubt if the Herald would accord such obesiance to, say, the Koch Brothers (also rich and inflential) if they offered an opposing view. My private POV is that I am getting damned sick of Warren Buffet pontificating on how undertaxed he is. He’s niney years old and I have a sneaking suspicion that he’s clearing his books in anticipation of meeting his maker. Also, where was all of this largess from Mr. Buffet when he was, say, sixty years old? He seems to be gunning for the title of “America’s Favorite Old Coot Multi-Billionaire.”
Your point is an excellent one and one which too few have recognized or commented on.
The toppling of Middle-East tyrants during the “Arab Spring” revolts is not necessarily a cause for rejoicing in the West, for once these dictators have gone, who will replace them? Most likely the Muslim Brotherhood, and it takes no great stretch of the imagination to believe that the Brotherhood has been the organizing influence behind the “Arab Spring” for exactly that reason.
If that is the case, then the “Arab Spring” is no “Spring” at all, but rather an “Arab Fall” to be followed by an “Arab Winter” with political power throughout the region in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists.
Who among us could find joy in that?
“Will those forces that were bottled up after Lepanto suddenly begin to reassert themselves?” You’ve got to be joking! Let me make a suggestion. If you are interested in actually learning something about the ME, I suggest you become a regular reader of the Spengler columns here. His latest entry contains the following:
“The problem that the West confronts is not engagement with Islam, or reform of Islam, or democratization of Muslim countries, but the utter and final ruin of some of the most important Muslim nations. Turkey’s problems are just as severe [as Iran's]: the fertility rate of native Turkish speakers is just 1.5, the same as Iran’s, while Kurdish fertility is around 4.5 — which means that the Kurds will comprise about half the country’s population a generation from now, in contrast to just under 20% today.
Much of the Muslim world remains rooted in traditional society, to be sure; 44% of Egyptians are illiterate and more than 90% of Egyptian women are subject to genital mutilation. But that model also has crashed and burned: a country immured in backwardness cannot survive in the globalized world. Egypt imports half its caloric consumption, and Chinese pigs will eat before the Egyptian poor.”
The Turkish, Egyptian economies are near the tipping point. The demographic wave will engulf our major ME opponent, Iran, when the smaller working population has to support an aging and unproductive older population. The average Iranian has six siblings and 1.5 children… with a $6,000 per capita income to support his extended family. We could include an analysis of why the tyranny of petroleum won’t last beyond the next 10-15 years, but this isn’t the place.
In the end, I for one can’t get worked up with fear over a region that has already mired itself in poverty and pretty soon will have nothing to export except sand and camels.
Every day I work with people whose top education level may range from the most basic diploma or hard-won GED to one or more doctorate degrees.
This experience has taught me a great deal, including the fact that education is no indication of intelligence. It’s also no indication of value, productivity or relevance. The guy on the shopfloor with the GED often discovers a solution that has eluded teams of engineers analyzing the problem from afar.
Warren Buffet needs to put his money where his mouth is. Until he does, his actions speak far louder than his words.
Perhaps I’m simply turning into a contrary curmudgeon. When Buffet can figure out how to make something tangible that delivers daily utility and value, I suspect I’ll be more inclined to pay attention to his ramblings.
I’ve lived in Omaha all my life and watched Buffett for years.
The guy is completely sui generis.
His gift to the Gates Foundation will “beat” the federal gov’t out of billions and he knows and wants that result.
But the Nebraska State inheritance tax is a different ballgame. The Omaha Public Schools are counting on a good chunk of his fortune.
There is nothing so contemptible as a double standard, but that is the curse and fashion of our age; to have and embrace one while denying it. Thats SOP for the high and mighty. But there really is no such thing as a double standard, its just a single hidden one. Pay no attention to the little man behind the curtain.
Dr. Hanson,
So very well described, so eloquently responded. I and many others implore you to run for the Presidensity. I understand your reluctance to descend to that level that’s necessary run a campaign. Your thoughts & insights are exactly what this country has needed for years. Perhaps you would consider serving as a cabinet secretary or advisor. We very truly need clear thinking, patriotic leadership. In the meantime, keep writing. I eagerly look for your musings. At least I know someone else thinks along the same lines.
I also feel that someone of your stature could elevate the scuzzy state of today’s politics.
If Dr Hanson will run for president, who write those excellent columns?
The hidden gem: “This policy is especially odd”.
Yes, his policies are especially odd, particularly for someone born and bred in the United States and who has discovered through some decades of life and research that we used to have a pretty good thing going here.
But it isn’t especially odd to someone who wants to tear that down.
Put on your opposite hat and everything becomes perfectly clear.
There is no ‘Arab Spring’.
We are seeing what the Arab/Islamic world do best and that is kill each other.
When they take a short break from Muslim mayhem on each other in Pakistan,Afghanistan,Iraq,Libya,Syria then they will refocus their united democratic attention on Israel as Hamas now does (Egypt has already begun to refocus with their million man march against Israel,all thanks to U.S. meddling)
It was a safer world before the U.S. removed the despots,now we have million more unrestrained despots running the Arab street.
There is no peace possible with Islam and Israel,one will have to disappear forever and only then will Jew and Arab live together in real and lasting peace.
Before the U.S. came along and played the part of evil empire in restraining Israel they used to defeat the Arabs.
Now with Hizbollah and Hamas a much greater threat to a weakened Israel because of America’s evil restraint policy this soon coming war will be nuclear.
America’s arrogance in meddling in the affairs of Israel are coming to an end because soon it will be humbled down to the dust.
You, sir, are prophetic.
No sir,
I’m just what you call a watchman.
I watch in light of what the good book says about our dire and eventful time.
I think Obama is going to get a big ulcer.
***
Monday
1. Marcel
‘The problem isn’t that the economy is busted,but that parts of it are busted.’
We may have more unexpected ‘buster events’ on the way which have not been factored in ?
This morning in San Juan Puerto Rico 800,000 are without power as minimal Hurricane Irene passed by.
If it hits a few major cities on the East Coast at a cat 3 or above,that’s not going to help an anemic economy.
I wonder if Irene’s plan is to ruin Obama’s comfy vacation at Martha’s with the big movers,shakers and plunderers.
August 22, 2011 – 1:29 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
http://pajamasmedia.com/spengler/2011/08/22/us-economy-the-glass-is-only-half-poisoned/#comments
Just watching.
Warren Buffett, who has reached the top of the ladder with the taxes he encountered as he climbed, now wants to enlarge the spaces between the rungs lest anyone else make the same climb….
If Warren is able to succeed and it sticks, his position as the greatest investor of all time will be secure, won’t it?
Not that an octogenarian would be caring about his legacy or anything like that.
Warren who?
Ignore them VDH. They’ll probably be selling coffee mugs on Cannery Row soon.
Our current fascination with “Leading from behind” will soon surely turn to bite us in the er…. behind.
Buffet, like George Soros, isn’t a businessman nor an entrepeneur.
They are both gamblers playing in the arbitrage or markets or banks.
WTF should anyone take advice from a gambler?
knowing when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em is pretty solid advice
Thank you, VDH, for delivering a richly-deserved smack-down of the editors of the Monterey Herald. What a sophomoric journalistic hit piece, aimed directly at your ankles.
None of these geniuses seems capable of noticing that Warren Buffet has built Berkshire Hathaway precisely by exploiting the tax laws which he pretends to deplore.
His insurance companies do a lively business in selling very lucrative estate tax policies to principals who are anxious to keep family businesses in the family. And when one of the principals is uninsurable by reason of age or ill health, as in the case of Ben Bridge Jewellers here in the Northwest, the kindly Sage of Omaha is positioned perfectly to ride in as a white knight to purchase a well-running enterprise without a fight from heirs.
In fairness to Buffet, he pays a fair valuation for those businesses which he chooses to add to Berkshire-Hathaway. But what happens to those family businesses who don’t fall under his gaze? Heirs who can’t come up with the 35% of the estate valuation payble to the IRS IN CASH within nine months are forced to liquidate successful businesses, or sell to foreign buyers who are free to move jobs offshore.
What Obama, Buffet, and the Monterey Herald are peddling is a bad idea as old a Aesop’s tale of the Goose that lays the Golden Eggs, with a similarly predictable outcome.
Well said, and true. Insurance policies designed to protect against estate taxes are aimed at wealthy people who have valuable, but relatively illiquid assets. Think commercial real estate and rental properties, businesses, farms, timberland, ranches. Tax policy should not force the sale of such properties, but it has in the past. It is good that the federal exemption was raised recently.
“…(about 50% of Americans pay no income tax and are thus not directly vested in income tax questions). ”
Actually, they are vested all too much in the income tax questions – more is better.
As an aside, since it involves the area Dr. Hanson lives in, did they state/feds ever turn the water back on in the central coast area? As I recall, irrigation water was held out as a bargaining chip, and if the voters were good Democrats, the irrigation would be turned back on. Since the 2010 elections (where the California voters were good Democrats indeed), I haven’t seen any news coverage of the central coast water issues either way.
Not to worry everyone. Orambo has it all covered. He’s leading with his behind.
Our goal should be to assist them in killing each other. All sides should be provided with free ammunition. Unfortunately, no one in DC is willing/able to recognize the benefits of this strategy.
The Monterey County Herald is required by law to defend the Warren Buffets of the world, along with the lazy, filthy rich snobs living in – wait for it – Carmel-by-the-Sea and it’s environs. Everyone who counts for anything in this world knows this.
Herald toadies do this by going off on articulate, blue-collar intelligentsia and other educated scoundrels living in the San Joaquin Valley, or on in Chular, or Texas or other disrespectful places like that. That’s part of their charter. To my way of thinking VDH should wear their amateurish attacks on his comments as a badge of honor. If the Herald doesn’t like you, you must be all right.
When you look at the politicians the Herald supports, year after year, you see the most polite, impeccably dressed, well-coiffed, best fed and totally worthless politicians that old money can buy. All hat and no cattle. But that’s life among the rich and famous. And when VDH begins rocking their boat they try to curry favor from their betters by poking back.
The best part of their ad hominem attack is it makes the point VDH has about three times the size of audience than their local rag. Delicious irony.
For a part of U.S./Middle East history that certain folks are not willing to address.
“After 70 years of broken Western promises regarding Arab independence, it should not be surprising that the West is viewed with suspicion and hostility by the populations (as opposed to some of the political regimes) of the Middle East.[3] The United States, as the heir to British imperialism in the region, has been a frequent object of suspicion. Since the end of World War II, the United States, like the European colonial powers before it, has been unable to resist becoming entangled in the region’s political conflicts. Driven by a desire to keep the vast oil reserves in hands friendly to the United States, a wish to keep out potential rivals (such as the Soviet Union), opposition to neutrality in the cold war, and domestic political considerations, the United States has compiled a record of tragedy in the Middle East. The most recent part of that record, which includes U.S. alliances with Iraq to counter Iran and then with Iran and Syria to counter Iraq, illustrates a theme that has been played in Washington for the last 45 years.”
For a historical and for some, a ‘shocking’ timeline and ideological study done by the CATO Institute see the full report ‘link’ at:
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=1019
To bring the report more up to date, it should be noted that certain geopolitical activists representing a certain world geopolitical ideology has long been working to form and maintain cells of ‘political dissidents’ or operatives throughout the Middle East and elsewhere to serve their ideological objectives for the world.
FINALLY: Dr. VDH lists solutions along with his insights and observations. This would be a most welcome addition to all of his columns. Anyone can make complaints, a few can generate insights, but in these times we need both immediate and long term solutions. Keep up the good fight Dr VDH.
Dr. Hanson,
I enjoyed reading your post. It read with logic.
I could be wrong, but one must throw away logic to understand what the global agenda is for the middle east. I think it is to support the Muslim Brotherhood throughout the region. Making said area one of ten economic regions of the world with one coin.
Regarding the pea-brained editors of Monterey Herald vs. Prof. Hanson, I’d have to score it “logic, reason and clarity over MSM idiocy, by TKO.”
A few other random thoughts about Warren Buffett:
1.Did it ever occur to the editorial writers of the Monteret Herald to inquire as to how many tax lawyers and accountants Mr. Buffett’s companies employ to make certain that they don’t pay one dollar more in tax beyond what the law requires them to pay? Why doesn’t he just order the CFOs of his companies to refrain from using all of those evil loopholes and “accounting tricks,” and just pay taxes on gross income?
2. Want to boost the economy, Mr. Buffett, and get people to REALLY listen to you? Instead of writing a pretentious op-ed about higher taxes, write a column for the business section of the paper and give the readers some good stock tips.
Darwin Akbar:
Or Warren Buffett along with Bill Gates and a few other billionairs who want what is best for the little people could make their personal checks payable to Charlie Rangle, Maxine Waters or even Barney Frank and drop them in the mailbox addresed simply to Washington D.C. No problem solving that 15 trillion dollar debt the children and grandchildren of those little people will inherit if the billionairs will simply pay their “fair share”. Or, they could do the right thing and shut-up with their nonsense.
Anyone else noticed that Assad purposely makes himself look like a Hitler clone, minus the uniform of course? At the same time; I believe Assad has watched to many Cary Grant movies and truing dress in the monochromatic sartorial splendor as a result. Trouble is; he ends up looking like a cheap European politician crossed with Roy Bookbinder sporting a wimpy moustache.
Interspersed pictures? Is this Fox News where the viewer can’t watch two people talk without the added stimulus of the vaulted file footage designed to influence him?
he dresses like Cary Grant b/c they shop at the same tailors. He was an optometrist in London. He wasn’t trained to be a dictator. He was trained to be an eye doctor. Sadly, he seems to have gotten a clue about how to be a dictator.
Warren Buffet – again – he’s getting tiresome. I don’t use the “just write a check argument”. Instead, I suggest we change how we treat income. Make all income the same – get the govt out of the business of trying to influence behavior via the tax code. Let’s treat dividends and cap gains the same as wages. How’s that Warren? Will that do for you? You know how much those types would howl. Basically, they’ve got their own little “tax loophole”.
And for those who would point out the “double taxation” on dividends, I would also propose that corporate rates be zero. Let all money flow to human beings and then tax it as ordinary income. This would also have the side-benefit of getting rid of the dreaded “corporate loopholes” that the left complains about when it suits them.
By the way, thank you for taking the time to make documentaries in association with the History Channel. Those were the only history lessons my son recieved the last two years of elementary school. He’s watched each of them several times. He knows more about Alexander and the Romans and even Joshua, than I would have expected from him before even college. He makes jokes that I can’t follow. He can converse easily with his grandfather, a former military historian for his guard unit.He can have intelligent conversations with his father, an infantry officer, about tactics and so on and so forth. Thank you for helping turn my boy into an intelligent man.
Thanks to Chambers #2 for an excellent commentary.
I fully agree with his support for Dr. Hanson’s rebuttal to the Press. This was a public pronouncement and written under the assumed expertise and authority of a public newspaper – not some private blog or facebook comment. As such, it must be open to critique and a call-for-truth.
With regard to the Islamic world, I do define what is happening as an ‘Arab Spring’ or, their own Reformation.
Islam emerged, protected from dissent and criticism by defining it as a religion, as a militant self-protective ideology of a tribal economy under threat by a spreading market economy in the 7th centruy. That is, the tribal economies of herding and trading were being uprooted, in their land base and their economic capacity, by the growing market settled economies of expanding towns and cities of the Roman-Byzantine-Christian world.
Read the texts, and it is clear that the economy is tribal, based around herding; and – threatened and militant. The ideology is a ‘Retreat from Reality’. That is, it has set itself up as immune to change, adapatation, collaboration, interaction. It has set itself up as, intellectually, empty. It rejects reason, science; it rejects the power of the individual to observe and analyze; it has thus set itself up as technologically barren, incapable of innovation and development, and societally ‘dormant’.
Islam moved into these types of economies: tribal and mobile, based around herding and small scale local horticulture rather than settled large scale market agriculture. It offers ‘peace’ in the sense that following it removes all doubt. Since the individual has denied his capacity for free thought, he enslaves himself to ‘allah’ – and accepts all that happens as outside of his control.
We must understand that the West, focused around the power of the individual to think and control his environment, was/is the source of technological progress. The post WWI and II change in fuel type from coal/steam to oil opened up the Middle East to an industrial rather than peasant agricultural lifestyle. But, the Middle East was technologically barren. It was the West that had to supply, at first, the money, as well as the technological expertise to mine, extract, process and ship the oil. Even today, the ME relies heavily on western technology for its one source of wealth!
Then, this wealth, instead of moving into the wide population of the ME, was kept by the tribal leaders. That is, politically, the ME remained tribal. This is a two-class structure; hereditary tribal leaders and the masses of powerless.
Then, urbanization developed, where millions moved off the local peasant farms to the cities – but – there was no small business economy established. instead, they are ‘kept’ by the state.
And..an exponential increase in population, where the populations in these various areas has doubled in 40 years. But the economy has remained centrist and socialist, with no private economic realm developing.
And..the political realm remained..tribal. That is – two class, with all power in the hands of the hereditary or military-empowered Rulers. NO MIDDLE CLASS.
My point is that, given the demographics, with such an exponential rise in population – NO ECONOMY can sustain this size population using only one means of weath production, which is kept in the control of a set of tribal rulers. It is economically impossible. And this is what has happened: an increase in poverty, an economy beyond the carrying capacity of a single source of wealth, no private small businesses allowed, ….and small/medium businesses, privately owned, are the domain of a middle class.
This imbalance between the size of the population, the fact that wealth comes only from one source; the lack of a middle class private economy; the fact that any means of changing this mess is not within the power of the mass of the people…but within the Rulers, who don’t want change….This is the source of the unrest and problems in the ME.
It is right that this implosion is occurring; changes won’t come without some setbacks and problems; you don’t switch from a tribal to a civic mode with the flick of a mechanical switch. But it’s inevitiable.
This also means that Islamism, as a fundamentalist ideology, will have no place in such a future society. You can be sure that its Rulers will fight to prevent its own entropic dissolution, but…
It’s all about demographics, about population, about economic capacities to sustain these populations…
Islam, or Islamism is going to be in control of Egypt, North Africa, Iran, Iraq, Afganistan, and anywhere elce those who submit to the moon god, and follow a mad man named Muhammad. All others within Islam are Apostate.
The Musluim Brotherhood supported by the global government(the global government you see attacking/supporting Muslims in Libya), will have their way.
The world loves those of the world, and hate those not of the world like Israel, or evil white Christian males.
BZO, or Die!
You’re right on course! First in response to the …… you responded to! Islam has toyed with westernization both socially, economically and in internal harmony with Christianity off and on over many decades….some nations more than others.
Now, on to your central point. The nations of Islam are NOT going to discard their religious beliefs, radical or more moderate any more than Christian zealots and their more moderates are going to. Islam is the second largest religion of the world and according to some data the fastest growing today.
One should be very careful buying into the “freedom revolution” as its being touted today! Only that small percentage of Irainian students leading their revolutionary efforts can be touted to be seeking ‘freedom’ as we Americans understand freedom. That is primarily because Iran has previously been westernized and some of those generations are still ‘moderately’ in favor of such. Regardless, they are small in number and semingly aren’t progressing very well. As for the other nations well…its far to early to know exactly who the revolutionaries really are or how it will eventually wash out.
If you would like an interesting read….The full study is ‘linked’ below the text at mid page.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=1019
Yes, its an ideal form of command and control, two class society where the underclass has no chance to improve its lot short of a revolution, after which societal insanity is the certain outcome.
But until that moment comes, the oligarchy lives like gods. From their perspective, it’s a risk well worth taking. Look back through history and some of the families rule in splendor for centuries before the revolution occurs. Good work if you can get it.
It’s why Islam gets on so famously with the marxists. Common goals, and unofficial alliances of ideological brothers.
They’re all alike, and they never change. Total power, total control, based on keeping the population furious at some ginned up external provaocation.
Right – a two-class societal infrastructure is an ‘ideal form of command and control’. The problem is, it is only feasible within a No-Growth economy.
That is one where the population does not increase and where the sources of sustenance are stable and reliable. This is not the case in the 21st century ME; the populations have doubled in the last few decades and the key source of sustenance, oil, can’t sustain this size of a population. It requires a middle class or private sector small/medium business economy – and the emergence of such a class and such an economy has been rigorously repressed by the oligarchic tribal rulers.
So, these regimes are imploding from within. Islam, an ideology of stasis, of stability and no-change, can’t intellectually support a society that requires innovation, entrepreneurship and independence of action and thought. As the pressures (economic and intellectual) to change increased, Islam has become fundamentalist..Islamism. And the red herring of ‘our problems are all due to the evil West and if only we could become pure as we were 1000 years ago’ has led to fascism in the ME.
But it can’t work – neither fascism nor Islamism. That size of a population requires a middle class economy – and that’s a civic or three class system, not a two-class tribal system. It will take time and with setbacks as the system moves out of its centuries of one particular societal mode into another. But again – with that size of a population …there is no choice.
Many of the longer lasting oligarchies have beneficial events like the Black Plague or extremely destructive wars that falls just short of sending the population into a death spiral.
That thins the herd and gives the plebes something to occupy their time while their masters swill wine and catch venereal diseases.
The mullahs are counting on the second option.
The plagues, famines and wars were clear signs that the population had outstripped the carrying capacity of the economic and societal mode of organization.
It went on in Europe for 400 years – with the old order fighting to retain its two-class tribalistic power…but, in the end, since the population kept increasing – there was no choice but to move into an economic mode that produced greater wealth: a three class system with the major economic strength, not in the landowner upper class…but in the flexible middle class. That’s what’s needed in the Middle East. No choice.
Chambers, re: “We are approaching the moment when we must directly face the fact that western democracy and Islam are completely incompatible and indeed may be the antithesis of each other.”
Well-said, and entirely true, if politically-incorrect. Any person with sufficient curiousity and open-mindedness can prove to themselves quite easily that Islam and what we call western civilization are incompatible. To narrow the field, we could even compare the U.S. Constitution and Declaration of Independence with the Koran and achieve the same result. All that is required is the willingness to read the Koran on one hand, and the foundational documents of western civilization and America on the other, and then compare them objectively.
Western freedoms, tolerance, pluralism, and emphasis on individual rights cannot be reconciled with Islam. There is no such thing as “freedom” in Islam, at least in the way an American or European would understand it; the closest equivalent in Arabic (the foundational language of the Koran) means “submission.” There is no such thing as separation of “mosque and state; in Islam, they are one and the same. Every aspect of a shahid’s (i.e., believer in Islam) life falls under the control of Islam; everything from politics to foreign policy to law to how one may court, marry or act in the presence of the opposite sex – all fall under the faith. Scientific inquiry and informed skepticism are forbidden in Islam, if they contradict the Koran. Slavery was outlawed in the Middle East only in the 1960s, and it is still practiced on an informal basis. Muslims are permitted to discriminate against other religious creeds, races and groups; Muslims often kill blacks and the Arabic word for a black person is “kaffir,” meaning “slave.” Islam does not permit tolerance of other, different ways of life – Muslims are commanded to covert, subjugate or kill infidels in an endless jihad until the world falls under a universal caliphate.
Westerners, especially those unfamiliar with Islam, tend to look at it ethnocentrically, i.e., through western eyes. This is a profound mistake, for Islam is very different from Judaism or Christianity or other non-Muslim religions. It is more accurate to call Islam a complete and even totalitarian system of living, masquerading as a religion – than it is to call it a mere religion. Islam is also aggressive, violent and expansionist – it is a creed of the sword, which has left a bloodtstained path wherever it has gone. Tens of millions of infidels have been put to the sword by the soldiers of Allah over the centuries.
Boqueronman, re: “In the end, I for one can’t get worked up with fear over a region that has already mired itself in poverty and pretty soon will have nothing to export except sand and camels.”
Correction, the Islamic world has plenty of shahids (true believers) and jihadists to export, as well as an ocean of petrodollars it is using to establish Muslim beachheads – colonies, if you like – in the infidel world. The Saudis have funded thousands of madrasas around the globe, each preaching a virulent strain of Wahabbist Islam. The students of these “schools” go forth into the world as would-be suicide bombers, martyrs, et al. In the no-so-distant future, the Muslim world will add another nuclear power whose leader gives every indication he is willing and eager to use such weapons against Israel and the west. If these things aren’t of concern to you, you must be made of sterner stuff than I am. Perhaps I spend too much time reading history, and have become pessimistic as a result. Who knows? I worry not for myself, but for our civilization and the children. A challenge for you: read Mark Steyn’s two books, “America Alone” and “After America,” and also Bruce Bawer’s “While Europe Slept” and “Surrender”… and see if these do not open your eyes.
Recommended reading : Who is the regional power in the middle east : Iran, Turkey or Al Jazeera Channel?
http://rencadesign.com/wp/2011/11/who-is-the-regional-power-of-the-middle-east-iran-turkey-or-al-jazeera-channel/
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