Meanwhile, gas, food, cars, houses, and consumer goods fall in price, a tremendous benefit for those still working, and one that translates in a rise in the purchasing power of their incomes.
Postmodern Poverty
And for the less fortunate? Here is southern Fresno County, at ground zero of the illegal immigration explosion, where unemployment reaches 14%, agriculture is in the doldrums and construction and manufacturing fare worse, the depression among the poor is still ambiguous, at least in historical terms.
I went into the local Food 4-Less again the other day, a cut-rate, bulk-buy chain food store. The parking lot was full of late model trucks and cars—not the sort I prefer, but those V-8 monsters, loaded up with high-priced rims, wide tires, custom paint, tinted windows, oversized trailer hitches, the whole American shebang so to speak that tops out at around $40,000. The customers may have been out of work, but I counted nine, just nine, of some 100 (this was a research trip for this blog posting), who did not have one of the following four appurtencies visible—cell phone, Bluetooth, blackberry-like device, I-pod. On the way out of the parking lot, the car radio was blaring with three sorts of ads: get out of credit card debt, get out of mortgage debt, get out of back IRS payments—now! Easy! Little cash upfront! This is not Bleak House as we are led to believe.
We are hurting, but not in 1933 fashion, due both to expanded government entitlements; Chinese-made cheap consumer goods; the fumes of past easy credit; black market, untaxed temporary cash and carry jobs (a vastly underestimated source of enormous income); and a culture that absolves one of the shame of reneging on debt (or perhaps even admires the possibility of a phoenix-like resurgence from loser to winner, and has a grudging admiration for the machinations involved in such rebirth).
I’m not sure this is even the 1979-83 recession where finally we got 10%-plus unemployment, 18% interest, and 12% inflation—a topic I once devoted a book to, Fields Without Dreams. Then I remember seeing Cryolite bags go up 10% every six months. I remember raisin prices going down from $1400 a ton to about $450. I remember vineyard prices falling from $15,000 an acre to $3500. I remember taking out Federal Land Bank loans at 13%, and short-term Bank of America crop loans at 15%. And I remember pickers getting 22 cents a grape tray in 1980—and 11 cents in 1983. I bought a used Pontiac Grand Prix (a fixer-upper that had been totaled) for 12% interest. So, I am sorry. This is not quite yet the early eighties recession, and I am not yet convinced that the baby-boomer generation that has come of age cannot ride this out without adopting European-socialism as a cure.
Thoughts on a Wrecked State
Meanwhile a popular parlor game out here is to argue over what caused California’s mess—an inept Terminator as governor; a wacky state legislature that is the dividend of insanely gerry-mandered districts; refined, out of touch elite environmentalists who sued and blocked everything from agriculture and forestry to oil, natural gas, and nuclear energy production?
Or was it the murderous tax code that, to pay for income redistribution, demands the highest sales and income taxes in the nation, and drives out the best and brightest, while welcoming in the high-school dropout and eighth-grade graduate?
Or was the problem state regulations that make it almost impossible to run profitably a small business in compliance with rules that no one can fathom, and which seem designed only to employ more unproductive state bureaucrats?
Or was it the 4-million plus illegal immigrants who over a span of some 30 years, on average per capita will draw well over $50,000 more in entailments than they contribute in taxes?
Or was the rub a powerful state employee bloc, one that consistently demanded raises not tied to performance, but often well over the rate of inflation? (Indeed, many making over $100,000 got raises this year while the state remains nearly $40 billion in debt).
Or was it the out-of-control unionized, overcrowded prison system, that, after hundreds of law-suits and hundreds of millions in court costs, elevated incarceration into some utopian enterprise?
Or was it, to be candid, the screwed-up, shared California mentality, that wants everything now and in perfection, but has not a clue how to pay for it, or a care about the nebulous distant, but evil “they” who are to provide for it. (And a growing state work force that votes for its own excess, since it rarely sees any more the entrepreneur who once paid for it [and is on his way to Idaho or Nevada]).
I don’t know the precise calculus of failure.
Cry the Beloved State
But I do suggest that one culprit was the state proposition system, our bi-yearly experiment in direct democracy in which for the last three decades we voted in all sorts of unfunded mandates, bonds, borrowing schemes and environmental prohibitions about this and that. And we did all this in a state whose high schools in many regions are only graduating 60% of their students. And of those who do graduate and go to college at the popular state college system, 50% must first take remedial math and English classes.
A half-educated, or indeed illiterate, electorate at the polls, voting for instantaneous entitlement, is, as thinkers as diverse as Aristophanes and Alexis de Tocqueville warn us, a rather dangerous thing indeed. And so it is as we see in our late, great California
We should have a Dantesque sign on freeway 80 as you enter the State:
“Abandon hope all ye who enter here.”
As always, brilliant. it will be “interesting” to see how far down the road to fiscal insanity we go before we decide to pull back to reality. The further down we travel the more expensive and difficult will be the journey.
Well, once again Doc, you tell it like it is. I’m very cynical as well. Despite all the complaints, it wouldn’t surprise me that if we had a presidential election next month that Obama would get elected again.
If some foreign power invaded California and pushed the state government’s “reset” button there might be some sanity until “free and open elections” were held again. I have no doubt the public would vote the same scoundrels back into office. Just as a dog goes back to its vomit, so a fool repeats his stupidity (Proverbs 26:11).
We can no longer trust our institutions. Our political representatives have become corrupted and our citizens seduced by materialism. We have indeed gotten the government and society we deserve.
“Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud…hatch out!” [I Claudius ]
You nailed it, Doc, on both subjects. As long as Obambi and all the ’60s campus commandos who are supposedly smarter than the rest of us don’t do something really stupid, it’s not 1929 and will end, maybe later rather than sooner, but we’re not at 25% unemployment yet.
As for your native state, you have my sympathies. From here in the East, the California system of public initiatives seemed to be a way for the people to serve as a check on the legislators and their cupidity/stupidity. To do that, however, requires wisdom. So you’re right about needing an informed and educated electorate to handle it.
I agree with much of what you said, but disagree that the initiative process is part of the problem. Were it not for initiatives, you would not have had Proposition 13 which limited property tax increases, and you would not have had the initiative that requires tax increases to have a 2/3 majority in the state legislature.
The most striking things about California government over the past 40 years is how UNresponsive the state legislature has been to the significant attempts by the taxpayers to limit increased spending and taxes, how profoundly damaging the growth of public employee unions has been, and how profoundly the early refusal to deal firmly with illegal immigration turned a manageable, albeit expensive, safety net into entitlements that have broken the back of public services for the poor.
Here in Virginia,I have not seen restaurants so crowded in several years. Champps, PFChangs, Hooters, Sushi-O, Firebirds and the local sports bar have been packed every night of the week. At the shopping mall Saturday, where I went to buy a cookie-cake, every table in the food court was taken. There weren’t too many glum faces in the mix, people seemed spirited.
Which is it? Are people trying to help the economy? Are they not feeling any personal setbacks? Are people fools?
For once, Hanson has portrayed the real financial situation, especially in the Fresno area, but I can see that where I live too. The USA economy cannot collapse as badly as before or as in other countries. Many jobs and industries will keep feeding the demand of normal living. It’s the luxuries that can get impacted. The problem is for people to define “luxury” . . .
Oops, I goofed.
I am “Anonymous” poster# 3.
Doctor Hanson, if you were to substitute “Ohio” for “California” you would have roughly the situation obtaining here in the Buckeye State as well.
And as with your home state, the most likely answer as to who or what is responsible is “all of the above”. The old saying the “Success has many fathers, but failure is always an orphan” is far less realistic than the equally ancient axiom, “Too many cooks spoil the broth”.
There are a great many “cooks” in government who simply refuse to stop stirring the pot. In California, in Ohio, in the rest of the states of the Union, and especially in Washington, D.C.
clear ether
eon
Thanks Doc, You are the first that I have read to put an approx. cost to the Golden State of an “undocumented citizen”.
Once again, Dr. Hanson demonstrates that — without his tapping-cane of ideology and his blind-man’s-memory for where the furniture of American exceptionalism was positioned back in 1949 — he would be unable to walk to the mailbox and back without getting lost.
Yes, Victor, if you close your eyes real tight and hear only the comforting words of Ronald Reagan, then no one is really broke, national economies still matter, and the world will continue to subsidize America’s 60-year Fantasy-Island ego-trip because — gosh darn it — we beat Hitler.
Thank God for PJM . Otherwise VDH would be teaching a community college class on the difference between ionic and doric columns.
@9. eon: I agree but I would change the saying slightly; Too many CROOKS spoil the broth.
Our political classes have become hopeless. They have learned that they can buy votes with entitlements and special treatment for the various sub-divisions of the society. Thus they feed the beast of diversity, setting us against one another in a cynical divide and conquer game while they engage in power politics at the expense of the future well-being.
Doc is hopeful that the economy will recover, I am afraid the blood-letting has just begun.
Bitch bitch, moan moan… Addiction is just that, nothing more nothing less. Is this not what you are discussing? Ergo, “the stimulus bill” is just what and for whom?
Do your own thing! Lie by it…die by it!
Will this generation of narcissists finally go into the dark of night?
Essential vdh
Cool thinking however maybe it is time not to be so cool.
What could be a temporary loss of value in the market crash due to BHO policy fears could turn into a permanant disaster due to BHO and the dems policy changes.
For if example the 401s, and Keogh plans were put under government control such as suggested by a BHO advisor, in the name of giving them back their “value” to some pre crash number.
Obviously this also sets up conflict. Those already retired and seeing 50% of their value gone would be in favor of such a power and equity grab by the Feds.
What if the retirement plans were taken over by the Feds and given a value pre-market crash and then shoved into the Social Security system and paid out as the same type of benefit.
It would be a bigger “land grab” than occurred in the USSR along with the killing of the millions of farmers who owned the land.
Granted the investors would not be killed but the loss of capital that goes into the market to fund non governmental growth could destroy the value of any investment now held by investors in the capital markets.
You could not have a choice if this kind of policy was implemented.
Business growth would not have access to that invested capital which would be a huge loss that would truly end in a crash without recovery.
Of course it would no longer be capital but go into the pit of governmental slush funds and the winners of it would be the losers that the BHO policy seems to be concerned about.
Those that already drag the economy down because they were created by the very Dems and RINOs that are now trying to destroy the capital system that could support some level of government mismanagement.
If we are nationalizing to this extent nothing will work and we will cannibalize our very country.
Civil war could happen under those circumstances and anyone who doesn’t believe that does not know human nature.
I went to Starbucks the other day to buy some coffee and was wearing by Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain tee shirt. The person behind the counter (I think they call them “baristas” in order to save money) said “cool” and asked be who that person was…and then preceded to make guesses. And of course he was wrong every single time.
I could have said that was Montezuma who fought for the Kaiser against the Pilgrims for the Spanish during the 3rd World War and defeated the Hawaiian Insurgents and he would have said “cool”. I came away with the things (three counting the coffee) he really didn’t care and he never heard of the Civil War except maybe in passing.
I was just released from a Rehabilitant Home after partially recovering from a stroke where I spend many hours taking with proprietress, a delightful lady. She as absolutely stunned to find out that we have troops station in Kosovo whose job it is to protect the Muslims from the Christians.
Products of the California education system.
And they are allowed to voted.
I went to Starbucks the other day to buy some coffee and was wearing by Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain tee shirt. The person behind the counter (I think they call them “baristas” in order to save money) said “cool” and asked be who that person was…and then preceded to make guesses. And of course he was wrong every single time.
I could have said that was he a person called Montezuma who fought for the Kaiser against the Pilgrims for the Spanish during the 3rd World War and defeated the Hawaiian Insurgents and he would have said “cool”. I came away with the things (three counting the coffee) he really didn’t care and he never heard of the Civil War except maybe in passing.
I was just released from a Rehabilitant Home after partially recovering from a stroke where I spend many hours taking with proprietress, a delightful lady. She as absolutely stunned to find out that we have troops station in Kosovo whose job it is to protect the Muslims from the Christians.
And these are products of the California education system.
And they are allowed to vote.
My only (mild) objection to your piece is that you have overestimated the educational achievements of the illegal alien population. I review workers compensation claims, many from Fresno, and find many claim second grade education and are illiterate in Spanish, let alone English. This creates a dilemma in vocational rehabilitation.
When a high school math teacher informed a group of parents that many students who begin ninth grade have not mastered the multiplication table, I was shocked and depressed, yet not surprised. I have a theory that those in charge of school curriculum are bored with their lives and bored with their jobs, therefore constantly change the curriculum and teaching techniques even those that work. In my opinion it began back in early to mid nineties. Many teachers I met were helpless to intervene with the administration.
My theory with the economy is that the Obama Administration when finding that the government was running somewhat efficiently though needing budget cuts which Democrats find an unbearable task, decided to turn their eyes to Wall Street, which they preceded to ‘fix’ in a matter of days. It might take a long time to build something but it sure gets demolished fast. I guess now we’ll get a twofer; a failed bloated government and a disastrous economy, three-fer, if you count the future generation and our failure to see they get a good education with emphasis on the basics, which frighteningly the administration is focusing on also.
1. What generally competes with the Treasury Auction market for capital/investment monies? The stock market. 2. We have a growing federal deficit. Foreign banks are slowing down their purchasing of our Treasuries. Where would it benefit the US Gov’t to have a rising stock market drawing away precious money from funding our ever-expanding national debt? It wouldn’t. So basically, the powers that be have three choices: A. dramatically lower federal spending to the bare bones while encouraging capital formation(and more future revenue) by lowering corp and capital gains tax rates, B. Raise interest rates in the auction markets to attract more foreign investment, or C. foment a stock plunge to assure that the treasury bill/bond market stays nice and lubricated to fund the Newer Deal. The Obama admin has chosen C.
Michael:
Blame the GOP. Handed the congressional reins in 1994 for the first time in 40 plus years, they blew it entirely in 12 and were blown out in 2006. Blame former Speaker Dennis Hastert who presided over the Lobbyist Building–.I mean Congress.
Blame the GOP appointed heads of the SEC and FDIC who snoozed while Wall St sharks with no more ethics than the original Mr. Ponzi drained billions from taxpayers insured banks.
Blame everyone that voted against Arnold’s propositons in 2004 that would have put a stomach reduction around the state employee hogfest in California.
Don’t forget the teacher’s union that promotes and protects mediocrities that stand in today’s classrooms, who think that spending your money on the feckless is the only humanity.
And don’t forget yourself–you, me and everyone else that thought we could work, obey the law and pay taxes while raising families and our elected officials would take care of things.
Thank you, Professor Hanson, for these wise words. I also think we desperately need your input, as both a scholar and a farmer, about other aspects of the government takeover of our lives, like the real agenda behind NAIS, the state-sponsored establishment of global monopolies threatening our most essential rights, such as freedom of healthcare, as well as the diversity and independance of our food supply.
It is my humble opinion that all honest and well-informed men are needed in these dangerous times.
montezumapilgrim,
Don’t forget to blame:
The CRA under carter
The repeal of Glass-Steagal under Clinton
The New Deal
The Great Society
The shameless bed-sharing of Fannie/Freddie with their Congressional overlords (Frank, Dodd, et al)
The overrun of our borders by illegal immigrants unwilling to stand in line like our ancestors-and the feckless vote-seeking pols who turned their backs to the invasion over multiple administrations on both sides of the aisle.
Schwarzenegger got a vicious beat-down from the public employees unions for his Year of Reform, 2005. Around the clock, for months, variations of the same ad- a police officer, a firefighter, and some other public employee, all saying how evil he was and he had to be stopped. All four Year of Reform initiatives failed. At least we know who runs the State of California now. I think the Year of Reform was too ambitious, it would have been better to focus on on issue at a time, and Schwarzenegger should have been better prepared to defend and advocte for his project. But in a democracy the people have to bear the final responsibility. I don’t think a rational, responsible political culture even of a leftist type will return to California in my lifetime.
I appreciate vdh correctly pointing out some positive byproducts of the current situation.
But what worries me is not the current state of affairs but that the morons who have siezed the government intend to make things worse, so that the entreprenurial class will be ruined, and the positions of the ruling oligarchy will be secure forever.
MontezumaPilgrim:
I don’t believe I was blaming anyone. Lord knows there’s enough to go round. If the show fits wear it.
I was just making observation.
In general, I agree with you.
One good thing, Obama has named Doofus Joe Biden to oversee the payoff money for election supporters. Does anyone know how much Joe’s son and his firm get for lobbying to get, say, a billion dollars? I guess Joe, as overseer, will ensure that kickbacks, payoffs, bribes and anonymous campaign contributions all comply with the strictest Democrat party guidelines.
AS OBAMA FIDDLES, MARKET TANKS
JUNIOR VARSITY IS IN CHARGE
Obama & Congress either don’t care or don’t have a clue.
http://greensrealworld.blogspot.com/2009/02/markets-tank-on-obamas-watch.html
My Gosh! Biden as the new stimulus bill czar.
“Obama Taps Biden to Oversees Stimulus Package Implementation”
What does Biden ‘have’ or ‘know’ in the economic arena? Disclaimer: I live in DE.
I thought Obama himself said Biden shored up his foreign affair cred.
Sound the alarm! The barbarians have breached the gates!
Here’s hysteria, courtesy of Jesus general:
Adele Fergusen
Honored Journalist
Bremerton Patriot
She writes . . .
I don’t want to alarm anybody but I’ve been a little apprehensive over what I found in the change kicked out by the till at one of the local stores the other day.
It was a 10-shillings coin from the Republic of Somalia dated 2002. It has a dromedary camel on one side and a coat of arms on the other.
No, I have never been to Somalia. All I really know about Somalia is that it is the home base of a gang of pirates who prey on the 18,000 ships that travel through the Gulf of Aden each year.
Now, I know I am making a whole lot out of one little coin, but one does not expect a coin from Somalia to show up in grocery store change in Puget Sound unless someone from Somalia parted with it. Are we being scouted for an attack on our ferry system? Lord knows we’ve got a bunch of ferries plying the waters that would be easy prey. The crews, by my observation over the years, frequently disappear below decks the minute we leave port and don’t reappear until the landing whistle blows on the other side. That, I figure, is to avoid being annoyed by passengers with questions requiring some action.
I can’t imagine the taking of a ferryboat because where would they go with it while negotiating ransom for the passengers. What if some passengers preferred a brief cruise attending catered fish frys and clam bakes to having to go home and go out looking for a job? So it’s up to you. I don’t even know what a Somalian looks like, but if you see anybody on the ferry carrying what appears to be an AK-47, call 911. You’ve been warned.
(end)
I think she may be onto something, and that got me to thinking about other threats we might have here. Take the bar down the street for instance. It’s called “O’Leary’s Irish Pub.” I checked it out and it has maps and flags of Ireland everywhere. Obviously, there are Irish people living in the area.
As you are surely aware, the Irish are known as a particularly Catholic, drunken, and rowdy lot. Are we being scouted in preparation for a series of drunken brawls in our protestant churches? Think about it. Whats to stop a bunch of Guinness-swilling drunks from stumbling into Christ Memorial Church in Poulsbo, slugging Pastor Pearson, pelting the congregation with potatoes, and abusing the organ? If you see anybody wearing green in church, call 911. You’ve been warned.
“Not Quite a Depression, After all”
It’s not a depression. From the Democratic perspective, it’s an opportunity.
Donttreadonme: No you’re right, but we both held people in the GOP -who were suppposed to be frugal, smarter and more prudent-to a higher standard, did we not?. They were elected to rid us of those things, and it’s so bitter to see they embraced them instead. Dennis Hastert and others of is ilk betrayed their trust and are the most responsible for this.
Thrasymachus: right on the money: too many propositions, trying to undo it all at once: and confused voters were hardly helped by the media which took “neutral” or hostile positions on all of them. Sad. You’re right: its the ultimate responsibility of the voters. But the media and their “leaders” failed them. Even now the LA Times bays for higher taxes without a whisper for spending cuts or state employe pay and benefit reductions. They’re not stupid people at the Times: just far less sophisticated than they believe themselves to be, and by their failure of true intellect, complicit in California’s decline.
Victor: Everything you say makes perfect sense to me, but the guy in the White House is a Marxist. For that “affirmative action” lightweight who was elected President, a man who made it to Harvard based on his skin color and his communist connections, certainly not on his qualifications, solutions to every problem are the same as that clown down in Venezuela: take money away from the people who earn it and give it to people who can’t wipe their own rear ends after potty time without a helping hand from government.
I have a new name for all this hysteria. Yo got yer sharia, and now we got ubhamas administration scaria.
the holder of the executive office sees himself as the Mahdi, and in order to bring to the dar as Kufr, as much dar as punishment to the infidel as he can, we have policy designed to destroy the economy so that the non-elites live in a world where all is more equal and more just, according to their rules.
Piercing insights, as usual, from the professor. The plunge in the price of oil (and gas at the pump) has indeed been, at least, a lubricant, if not an outright stimulant. For an actual stimulus, you need capital. And no one is sure right now what the value of his potential capital is.
Wealth transfer going on? Du-uh! A neighbors’ friends walked away from their mortgage in 2007. So, already I’m bailing out someone (or more than one) associated with the loss from that event. This walking-away-from-mortgages thing has caused property values to plummet dramatically in my area, so I’m upside-down on my 6-year-old mortgage, but still paying it. The neighbors’ friends, meanwhile, are renting somewhere for $1800 a month — more than my mortgage payment; I couldn’t afford that rent — and waiting for two years to pass from their foreclosure, so they can get another mortgage.
This isn’t wealth transfer from rich to poor, this is wealth transfer from one middle-class neighbor to another.
But, VDH, do buck up about California. Don’t put that sign up just yet. There are still so many good people here.
Here’s a factor you didn’t mention: the power of federal judges to shut down the state’s initiatives. The state has tried to improve its utility infrastructure (water, power generation, and from a separate column, oil and gas refining), and been shut down over and over by interest groups in federal court. Prop 187 — the voters’ last stand, if you will, on state benefits to illegals — was overturned in federal court as “unconstitutional.”
Another issue for California is its socioeconomic diversity. And I don’t mean “Hispanics” by that — I mean that California is not a “farm state,” it’s not an “urban state,” it’s not a “manufacturing state,” it’s not a “rural BLM state” or a “great national parks state” — it’s ALL those things. To be any one of those things, you have to give up features of the others. A simple drive through the state, almost anywhere, is a study in that very development. And unlike most other states, the weather doesn’t drive away all but the hardiest, whether in enduring heat or cold. People who wouldn’t last six hours in the humidity of central Florida are determined to change the face of the rest of the planet, to keep their six-block stomping ground in San Francisco looking just like it did when they moved in. (Seriously. Where else do you have a guy with solar panels on his roof demanding that his neighbor cut down a 120-year-old tree because the local law says your tree can’t block someone’s solar panels — and the city unable to decide the issue because its law also says you can’t cut down the heritage tree?)
California needs to cut its entitlement programs back to near zero. No more paying for the routine medical care of the middle class — and seniors, and families with kids, that means you. The list is long. But that’s the only economic fix there is.
What if the low fuel prices and low T-bill interest rates are in cordination with our enemies. They’re a cushion; a soft rug that will be pulled out from under us one all the trillions in surplus are enacted.
It might not be the Great Depression II. Yet.
But out of control spending and taxing combined with foolish trade protectionism and environmental radicalism might yet give birth to it.
Never underestimate the ability of our political/media elites to turn small problems into a disaster while patting themselves on the back for ‘saving’ us.
“Ditto 401(k)s. If you are retired—terrible. If you are nearing retirement as many of us are—worrisome. But for those under 50, who still put away pre-tax dollars each month, there is a weird sort of solace. I have friends in their 40s who say they won’t pull anything out for a quarter-century, and would prefer to buy stocks and mutual funds now at rock-bottom prices,”
That’s assuming those funds aren’t simply seized outright by the gov’t at a later date. Out of roughly 3 dozen friends under 30, I only know of one, (1), who uses an IRA or 401(k). The trust simply isn’t there.
The people of California have lost their “democratic virtue”, as Machiavelli put it in his Discourses on the first ten books of Titus Livius.
I bought a foreclosed home for $107,000. The people who left it-or abandoned it-left behind a $157,000 mortgage, a $14,000 truck note (they took the truck, the stove, the fridge, dishwasher, washer and dryer, thankfully the left the copper piping behind), a $4,300 bill to Visa, a $1,200 bill to Sears, and a $150 bill to our local cable service and a $300 bill to Sprint. I learned later from my new neighbor that the previous occupants, by their own braggadocio, admited they were in the country illegally. Lenders are fools to give to anybody who applies. But this one group of people simply did not pay nearly $180,000 in bills. AND THEY TOOK THE TRUCK!! :) This is just one house. No one has talked about the impact of illegal immigrants and credit borrowing as contributing to our current mess. I think it was a HUGE factor.
Dr. Hanson,
To make myself feel a little better when all around me I see the vestiges of Barack’s attack on the ideals America was founded upon, once a week from school I phone by Grandma who’s 82 years young (as I call her).
And complain about Barack’s lynching of capitalism.
But, she says, “Don’t you think it was time this great country elected a black man?
Honey, I remember remnents of slavery which were nasty, but slavery was real and cruel and inhuman.
And the country has taken a big step to get beyond it.”
“I guess you’re right I could hear myself saying. But, but.”
“But what dear,” grandma asked.
“But, I said, Barack’s attacking everything this country stands for.”
Said Grandma, “Well, Rachel, I’ve got to confess that’s been bothering me a bit, too. I’m glad we elected an African American. It’s about time. But did we have to elect such a damn fool?”
I always feel better talking to my Grandma.
Regards,
Rachel
California here we come! California is the glaring paradigm by which our country is heading off the rails. The crumbling cobblestone road to ruin paved with altruistic intentions just about sums up the epic failure of Democratic ideology. The primer is right there but the Lefties want to turn a blind eye and ram their monolithic agendas home irregardless of the obvious outcome.
When the coffers are drained dry and our dollars aren’t worth the paper they are printed on then our polite ableit sometimes discordant online conversations of today will be but a distant memory. I can hear “Taps” playing already…
Conjecture is for those who have time to mull over the finite details but alas, time is not on our side. Recessions can be recovered from IF the powers that be don’t have ‘other’ ideas in mind and it’s those ‘other ideas’ that have me greatly concerned.
Just like most of the time, the professor is so right on it hurts.
The state of the economy varies by State. If you’re from VA, Like Sara, it’s not so bad. If you’re from a Blue State, it sucks. I live in WA. Foreclosures are rampant. People are walking away in huge numbers. Jobs are getting scarce. The State’s running a growing deficit. 4 years ago, it had a surplus, then a Dem stole the election (literally), and proceeded to spend and spend.
Overall, the economy is down. If you want to know how much, just look at the ratio of Red to Blue on an electoral map, any electoral map.
Dr. Hanson,
Thank you for your always excellent insights into the political and economic malaise of my former state. I suppose everyone who has left California has their own staid reasons but mine were simple and align perfectly with what you’ve continually emphasized: comically high taxes and abysmal education. When I realized I simply couldn’t afford to run my own (quite profitable, thank you) business and even keep my two daughters *safe* at a school (must less have them learn anything), I decamped from the state I’ve lived for all but a few years of my life.
I was sad to leave by am even sadder to see what my native state has become. This is tempered by the enjoyment of where I am now — a tiny rural community in the Northwest — not to mention that America still provides like-minded people with this opportunity.
California is not just chasing away the real estate speculators; I suspect those with other choices to make are fleeing too. I respect you gutting it out as a professor and farmer, but as a small business owner with children, I found there are simply no longer any reasons to stay.
45. Marc Malone,
WA state isn’t far behind California to be certain. The aftershocks are being felt here and it’s not pretty and one can’t help wonder if another ‘BIG ONE’ is going to hit us right in the gut.
-Funny how people will accuse you of being an alarmist until your predictions start ringing true.
My husband saw this whole mess coming early last year and his new business partner ‘poo-pooed’ him. Well, Holly GoLightly got a wake-up call.
This is interesting because on Saturday, my husband and I went out to eat. The restaurant was in one of those high end retail strip mini-malls. The parking lot was packed. I did not go into the stores to see if people were buying, however, there were people out there looking–lots of them. The restaurant we went to was packed as well. We commented to each other that you’d never know there was financial crisis going on.
I have friends who now refer to their retirement accounts as 201(k)’s based on the huge losses they have endured.
“Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more of expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive
credits, until their debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks, which will have
to be nationalized, and the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism.”
(Das Kapital,1867)
Don’t tell me it’s not a plan.
Thers a reason that 6 states have over 40% of the housing foreclosures. The six-Commiefornia,Nevada, Michigan, Florida,Arizona and Ohio-have 2 common traits. One is a large number of illegal aliens. The other is a large union presence in those states. Weve done this to ourselves by allowing COMMUNISM to attack our insitutions to the point that virtually every media outlet has more in common with CHE GUEVERRA than with Marconi or Ernie Pyle. Kieth Olberman a journalist? who is he kidding? Brian the brainless Williams? Katie Couric? Chris Matthews? Charlie Gibson? I can do a better job, I just dont look or sound as good(except for uberpuke-talk about fugly). Does the ACLU have any idea what the CONSTITUTION is? Not in my lifetime. Look at there founder, Roger Baldwin. An out and out private property hater(except for his of course) Academia-Ward Churchill? Bill Ayers? the idiot president of Columbia? the idiot Myles Brand, who appoints AYERS as the head of curriculum? THIS ATTACK ON AMERICA HAS BEEN DONE FROM THE INSIDE. AND THE OBAMASKANK AND HIS SPONSOR SOROS(WE KNOW WHO OBAMA SUCKS UP TO) ARE TRYING TO DESTROY FREEDOM. GET A GRIP.
I’m curious to what extent the increasing numbers of unemployed in California are having on the illegal immigrant population. I’ve seen reports to the effect that farmers who were having great difficulty finding workers to pick their crops 3 years ago are now having no problem at all. Also reports that suggest California wage receipts sent to Mexico are down. Are more *legal* American workers showing up in the fields and in the orchards?
Why did the CA Legislature cave to the no gas tax demands of Able Maldonado? Why not impose a stiff gas tax penalty to make those $40,000 monster truck drivers think twice about buying and operating these behemoths??? We are experiencing a temporary reprieve in the price oil at the moment, why not use it to address the budget deficit as well as provide a disincentive to those who are once again buying gas hogs they don’t need?
From what I’ve read and understand, if the state of California was to stop printing every government publication/notice in every known language besides English, they could cut their budget enormously. If people want and need to know what a notice says, there are interpreters, both paid and volunteers, for that purpose. This is true in all other states, as well. And since California wants to be the pioneer in “Green” technology and practice, this fits their program precisely.
“Another sobering thought. Over 92% of Americans are still at work.”
Please remind those who bitch and moan about the loss of American manufacturing jobs ‘overseas’ or who believe returning such jobs is part of the solution, that 9% figure would be much higher if those hundreds of thousands of laid off Chinese were instead Americans. Tack on the usual amount of unemployment benefits to that number and the need to grow or develop replacement jobs, and any recovery would be further retarded.
What I want to know is when will I be able to use Federal food stamps to buy California Medical Marijuana?
Granted, that’s less of a stimulant as a sedative but it would help me cope with the next four years of the Obama Administration.
Don51, so spot on. As one of our economic consultants deftly said, we exported the most volatile component of jobs (rumors of 20-30MM lost manufacturing jobs in China) while keeping the intellectually property portion of the value chain.
VDH, thanks again for your excellent analysis and observation.
Steve Mac @ 2
Exactly. And, the road back up will cost what, if it’s ever possible to reverse direction? Will it be measured in lives?
Historian @ 28
I would advise against calling or thinking of “them” as the JV squad. That view sustains a disarmed mindset. This crew has overturned more in the 90 days since 11/05/08 than WWI, WWII, Korea, VN and the entire Cold War were able to accomplish in nearly a century of our struggle against totalitarianism.
MontezumaPilgrim@33,
What frosts me most is that Hastert et al get to retire at full pension with lifelong 100% healthcare coverage and Federal protection, on our dime.
Just heard an interview with Bobby Jindal, Gov. of Louisiana, were he says he will not accpet any money from the Stimulus Bill, because hidden in the bill is language requiring that the States “permanently” modify their laws to expand welfare.
No wonder the pols didn’t want anyone to actually read it, before they passed it. That’s just one out of 1,000+ pages. Be forewarned, these folks are not the amateur doofuses many try to make them out to be, they’re really skilled operatives.
#55 Whitehall . . . here’s something for you to think about . . .
Public approval ratings for:
John Boehner 17%
Mitch McConnel 21%
Rush Limbaugh 28%
Legalizing pot 40%
How can that be, the the Republican political and media leaders in this center-right country enjoy less support than weed?
#58 geoffgo writes of the Stimulus . . . “No wonder the pols didn’t want anyone to actually read it, before they passed it.”
Here’s another story:
The new President has declared a crisis that demands immediate action. The old policies of the past have failed, he announces, and it is time for far-reaching action that will expand the government’s power to combat the serious threats against the Nation. Time is of the essence, he declares: We must act now.
The opposing party tries to stop the President’s plan. They complain that the President and his minions in Congress are acting too fast and going too far. Sure, some kind of change is needed. But the President and his allies are going too far, they complain, passing a “wish list” to capitalize on the public’s fear of the crisis continuing.
Even worse, no one seems to know exactly what is in the massive bill. Senators and Representatives in the minority party complain that they never even had time read it! The bill is hundreds of pages long, and it was impossible for anyone to read all that legislation in time for the vote.
The President is dismissive about their complaints, however. The opponents are stuck in the old discredited way of thinking: Change is needed, and quickly. The bill quickly passes, and it becomes known as the USA Patriot Act. (by Orin Kerr)
Gotta get a little wider in your thinking if you’re to end up on the right side of the future.
Bill @ 47,
I don’t think from reading your post that you are curious at all; but you are evidently very confused.
You want to mandate by fiat exorbitant taxation on fuel for other people, but you don’t mention any eagerness to drill for oil here at home, or to accelerate the use of nuclear power, or any other solution to our dependence on foreign energy.
It’s not about who drives what; a free market regulates that perfectly well, if meddlers like you stay away from those areas where your ignorance and fascist tendancies are so apparent.
You just don’t get it. See, here in the USA you don’t get to tell me what I need to live my life. Your thinking process, or lack thereof, IS the problem.
You remind me of all those idiots who escaped from California to my Colorado of more space and lower taxes, and now are busily trying to make it just like where they came from.
60. one of your own:
Gotta get a little ‘blinder’ in your thinking if you’re to end up on the flip-side side of failure.
Rotwang:
I’m a little confused about the ideological bent that you detect in VDH’s article and assume guides the blind professor to his conclusions. Would that be the ideology of Aristophanes and de Tocqueville?
I don’t follow California politics, so I won’t comment on the particulars of this article (other than the dig at rampant illiteracy among the electorate, which I consider to be true). At the national level I’m not convinced ideology played a decisive role in causing our current economic collapse. I believe sabotaging our economy was a bipartisan effort, engaged in by idiots in both political parties over the past 2 decades.
I believe Congress and the Administration plan to capitalize on this economic downturn, using it to usher in a modified version of socialism in this country. You can view that as ideologically driven, or as merely a power grab. It amounts to the same thing.
I began my cocktail hour an hour ago, so let me make this closing observation before I’ve had one cocktail too many. The economy in this great country of ours goes through up cycles and down cycles. Right now, we are in a down cycle, and the man in charge is not doing a hell of lot to change that situation except “talking down” the economy which is the first step Marxist/socialists/communists take when they want to impose “government” solutions. I don’t know about anyone else, but I don’t intend to be a government slave. Does anyone out there know anything about our Constitution. It was written to protect citizens from the abuses and excesses of government, not vice-versa.
#62 Delia . . . typically derivative. Try doing something original.
A lot of you people are on the right track with the marijuana; But the Obama soldiers don’t need it; They’re naturally stoned. But for the next four years to be painless, they’re going to have to pass out marijuana coupons like birth certificates. But with California being the #1 grower, what could be more fiscally responsible?
“TAX THE RICH” FOR DUMMIES
They are not the ones who end up paying that tax bill.
http://greensrealworld.blogspot.com/2009/02/tax-rich-for-dummies.htm
FOR DUMMIES (with operable link)
TAX THE RICH?
They are not the ones who end up paying that tax bill.
http://greensrealworld.blogspot.com/2009/02/tax-rich-for-dummies.html
bill @52 said
“Why did the CA Legislature cave to the no gas tax demands of Able Maldonado? Why not impose a stiff gas tax penalty to make those $40,000 monster truck drivers think twice about buying and operating these behemoths??? We are experiencing a temporary reprieve in the price oil at the moment, why not use it to address the budget deficit as well as provide a disincentive to those who are once again buying gas hogs they don’t need?”
elitism. so, bill gets to decide who “needs” to drive a truck, eh?
well bill, your dreams of being the elite decider will be dashed as per the usual result for elitisy wannabes. remember, the commies kill the self-proclaimed smart people with regularity.
68. The Historian,
Great article. Thank you.
“2. The bulk of the “rich” that will feel the brunt of high end tax increases are those who own small businesses. They are the engine that drives our economy. They employ the vast majority of working Americans. They will be among the most victimized amongst us when the government taxes the rich.
So what will these people do as a result of the Obama increase. First and foremost, they will not take a tax hike hit to their bottom line profits. No, they won’t. They are not successful business people because they are stupid. They will do what businesses and corporations always do: they will pass that cost on to their customers in the form of goods and services price increases.
And who pays for that? You and I, not the “rich”. When Obama taxes them, he actually taxes regular American working families, including those below the poverty line.”
one of your own:
“#62 Delia . . . typically derivative. Try doing something original.”
Cast not the first stone, eh? Copying someone else’s story here is not exactly “doing something original”.
Speaking of said story, there is an excellent moral to it that you may not appreciate. The story shows how many Democrats in Congress rolled over to Bush’s fear-mongering re the GWOT. Implied is the contrast with House and Senate Republicans facing Obama’s arm twisting re the stimulus bill. Of course, only three of them faltered and caved in to the new president. So, you have to conclude that either Obama is not as persuasive as Bush, or more likely, that the Congressional Democrats are relatively spineless when it comes to adhering to their principles. You might want to check with Orin Kerr about that.
The reason why things aren’t so bad in Virginia is because it is home to so many federal employees in the suburban DC area. Nine of the 20 wealthiest counties in the US are in Maryland and Virginia.
The relative well being of Virginia is actually a symptom of the overcompensated and greedy public payroll.
Ronnie Schreiber at #72 — you raise a really important point. One thing we have to keep in mind about the desperate stratagems of our political leaders to shore up an un-shoreable economic situation is that they, and their pet constituencies, are so dependent on public revenues, and political concessions in the private economy.
We have to come to grips with the fact that a lot of this is not so much about economic theory as about the self-interest of those whose income and wealth depend on our taxes. For them, a bad economy means seeing their revenue streams dry up.
Wow, serious drought.
71. TLM . . . Great, the best the Republicans can do is all vote for something none of them read or understood. THAT’S what I call leadership. And when people say you are “the party of no” what do you say? “No.”
Keep plugging away. You folks will stumble onto a genuine principle eventually.
As for originality, I attributed the content rightfully. Like I said, keep plugging.
one of your own:
“. . . Great, the best the Republicans can do is all vote for something none of them read or understood. THAT’S what I call leadership.”
At the risk of being “derivative” (BTW, good descriptive term for music, art, etc. Not so good for panning someone’s blog post), the same point would apply to the Democrats regarding the stimulus bill. Aping the legislative behavior of their Republican counterparts won’t win the Dems any accolades. People voted for “Change” this past election. They got more of the same, just the socialist version.
FYI: it’s difficult to argue here with people whose default mode for discourse is to haphazardly toss out one of their favorite put downs (derivative, keep plugging away, not original), while not realizing the irony of what they say. If you don’t understand the intrinsic inconsistency of what you wrote in post #62, don’t expect me to take you seriously.
“Keep plugging away. You folks will stumble onto a genuine principle eventually.”
That’s after marijuana is legal, right?
Dude, do you know where I left my principles?
Nooooo dude. Don’t the democrats have all the principles?
Very funny Dude. Are you high man? Hey, ya got any papers?
@77. LynnS:
Probably, at the rate things are going.
They’re right where you left them – bankrupt.
No, just the rational ones.
No papers for you. What time is it?
Peace.
DS
We could save 10% or more of the bail out bill by just forcing California out of the union. The side benefits including getting rid of its cultural contributions to our society, illegal alien population, Nancy Pellosi, etc….. would be huge for our country.
48. Karen:
” We commented to each other that you’d never know there was financial crisis going on.”
I find myself in that situation every day . . .
“Abandon hope all ye who enter here.”
Loved it.
Nicely done sir.
I am not sure the majority of the populace gets the government they deserve.There are too many uneducated voters who don`t functionally know English and are therefore easy to manipulate.Voters should have to be licensed just as drivers,barbers,plumbers,electricians and many others are.Is not having the right to vote important enough to make someone earn it?
Additionally Public employees should not be allowed to vote.They have a clear conflict of interest.
We would also be better off if lawyers were not allowed to serve in any legislative body.Letting lawyers make the laws is like letting doctors invent diseases.
Unfortunately, Mr. Hansen takes the purchase of US treasury debt at record low interest as a present to the American economy. It is possible to argue that no matter how cheap the inflow of capital, we are selling America to those who are not beholding to the American people. Occasionally we recognize our idiocy when we stop the horse in midstream and return to the shore from which we came. In particular we refused to sell American port operations to Dubai, something that was prejudicial, but sane.
Let us speculate for a moment. Where will the foreign funds wind up? They will wind up, in part, paying to divide America into classes on the edge of class warfare. Instead of readjusting our economy to decreased productivity and increased searching for new technology, it will go to profligate spending on “reinflation” The way that money will be distributed will be to keep inefficient structures afloat, distribute funds to non-productive people and institutions, pay for pork, and, yes, tax the rich. Taxing the rich will be an option while they are still rich. After that, not so possible. Under “other” circumstances (reduced influx of foreign capital) adjustments would become necessary. Now, adjustments are not necessary. However, when China and the oil-producers run out of big bucks, adjustment will indeed become necessary with a passion.
Anonymous (#3): “If some foreign power invaded California…”
It has already happened, California has been successfully invaded by Mexico. “Invaded” you might ask? Yes, a nation that will not or cannot enforce its borders is by definition no longer a state. California – the 9th largest economy in the world – is now a de facto Latino nation, the northernmost province of Mexico. The invaders did not wear uniforms, and therefore were not recognized for what they were, an occupying army of foreign nationals, willing to assimilate into the American way of life.
For those unfamiliar with the theory of fourth-generation (non-trinitarian) conflict, the website “Defense and the National Interest” gives an excellent overview. See: http://www.d-n-i.net/dni/ and select the sub-menu ’4GW – theory’ on the right-hand side of the homepage. One of the primaru tenets of 4GW is that its weapons are unconventional and do not always resemble conventional military; these most significantly include immigration, illegal and otherwise.
The latest issue of “Townhall” magazine has a very disturbing story about the degree to which the process of transforming California has already taken place. Dr. Hanson’s book “Mexifornia” is quoted prominently in the feature.
The gravest security threat to our nation, alongside the present financial crisis, is along our Southern border. As important as Afghanistan and Iraq are (and they are very important)are, these pale in comparison to the unfolding crisis along our Southern border.
It’s later than we think…
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