The president speaks tomorrow on Libya. Expect him to assure us of success, thousands of lives saved, and a mission now “toned down” and “handed over” to NATO. Let us hope that is all true. But there are existential problems with Libya that will have to be addressed, whether Obama chooses to or not.
1) A no-fly zone will not remove Gaddafi. That is why our cruise-missile attacks and European bombing have already gone beyond the Arab League/UN mandate. Gaddafi, like Milosevic, can win without a helicopter or jet in the sky. To see the rebellion succeed, Obama (or his European allies) must violate the UN and Arab League sanctions that we now boast about following — and destroy his ruling cadre in Tripoli through bombing ground targets, not chasing non-existent jet formations. And that would be “war,” not “kinetic” operations.
2) Borrowing for Tomahawks. We are six to seven trillion dollars more in debt than when we went into Iraq, when the 2003 budget deficit was well under $400 billion, not over $1.6 trillion. The country is now in far more dire economic straits than eight years ago. And the length and expense of this present mission will be calibrated as few missions have been in the past (hence the administration’s understandable insistence on “days,” rather than “weeks” or “months” of fighting). We spent over a $100 million on day one in launching Tomahawk missiles (lots of unemployment checks and shovel-ready stimulus projects that went up in smoke). Even if everything goes well, the cost will be in the billions of dollars, especially rebuilding the infrastructure that we are now blowing up. Perhaps we can ask the strapped Japanese to buy more rather than sell off our Treasury notes—to help fund the Tomahawks and the rebuilding of the bombed-out Gaddafi infrastructure: we need your money to rebuild Tripoli; you can work out your nuclear thing later. (Sort of like telling 400 million Chinese who have not seen a Western doctor to loan us another trillion dollars to implement ObamaCare).
3) Minutemen? I believe there is a Western veneer of rebels and these are good-hearted and brave reformers. And I believe most don’t know an RPG from an IED. Those that do are not pro-Western and not about to remove Gaddafi and his odious bunch in order to foster republican government. The truth is that in the Arab Middle East constitutional government works mostly 1) in Israel; or 2) when the U.S. (in Germany, Italy, Japan fashion) removes a tyrant, destroys his government, occupies the country, writes the Constitution, and puts tens of thousands of troops on the ground to rebuild the society and shoot those who would hijack the reform — as in Iraq. Oddly, these are the two countries Obama has most criticized. So the chance of a lasting Libyan consensual state arising from the ashes of Gaddafi are rather slim without such Western tutelage and expense. I fear the removal of tyrants is not the end of the Middle East war, but merely stage I, in Iranian 1979-1981 fashion, followed by stage II when the Islamists either liquidate the Google executives or co-opt the military.
4) Monster in Recovery? To destroy Gaddafi we must demonize him as a terrorist monster. He is. But there are a few recent problems with that. In the last five years, he had convinced many Westerners — mostly liberals — that he is now OK and should not be judged by the old Bush Manichean “with us or against us” standards. He gave up his WMD in fear of a Saddam-like fate. One of his Western educated kids has bought a reputable PhD from the London School of Economics with a cash-on-the-barrel £ 1.5 million “gift.” The British government released the Lockerbie bomber, got some good oil concessions, and declared the matter over. The so-called Monitor Group, staffed by Harvard professors and other Ivy League idealists, hires scholars for dollars to write encomia about the now good Gaddafi. And Beyoncé and Mariah Carey made a proverbial oil-funded killing performing for the now retrained Gaddafis. Major Western statesmen regularly visit Gaddafi’s tent. So while you and I think that he is a monster, the multicultural left, and the corporate right, think, well, that he either should not be judged by our arbitrary ethnocentric standards, or has lots of oil and money — or both. Bottom line: the reset Gaddafi is a little harder sell as a monstrosity than the body-shredding and Kurd-gassing Saddam Hussein.
5) Who’s Them? The two worst dictatorships in the Middle East are Iran and Syria — just those which the president declared we would not “meddle” in and would seek “outreach” to. The two least bad dictatorships were the Mubarak and Ben Ali juntas — just those we ordered to dissolve. We don’t need absolute consistency from Obama, but we need a tiny bit of it: so please, is our intervention good in Libya to help reformers, and Saudi Arabia’s bad in Bahrain to hurt them? Are there more Libyans dying from tyrannical government and chaos than Congolese or those of the Ivory Coast? And because Yemenis and Jordanians do not vote, should we support them in their efforts to topple their pro-Western monarchs? And are Middle Eastern plebiscites that one time usher in illiberals preferable to no plebiscites that keep in power autocrats more liberal than their people? At least Bush had 23 unique reasons, as put forth by Congress in October 2002 (e.g., from genocide of the Kurds and Marsh Arabs to trying to kill a former U.S. president to harboring the 1993 World Trade Center bomber, etc.), to take out Saddam — most of them would not apply to a Libya or Tunisia or Egypt. Is Libya, then, the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end of the U.S. bombing of oil-producing Arab countries?
You nailed it, as always.
Every single points raises some degree of terror and dread into my heart. However, #3 is what concerns me most.
How do we extract ourselves from this Euro-led, Arab League-tainted, US-financed-and-armed conflict without “tens of thousands of (US troops on the ground”?
I fear the answer to that is, we can’t.
I agree that VDH “nailed it”. Hasn”t it been said that you can’t be a great president unless you have fought a war ? Well Libya is Obama’s very own war – “the good war” laying the groundwork for his 2012 election.
Libya is not a threat to the USA but Obama is. The American voters need to conduct a “humanitarian” action to save our country by getting rid of Obama.
The original notion of the UN was to avoid this very problem.
That it is so extraordinarily dysfunctional, makes it impossible to avoid and the basis of yours, mine and everyone’s fears of that outcome.
VDH, your final point about never betting against the US military seems to me to be just about all that needs to be taken into account.
No doubt, your encyclopedic litany of recent historical Obama facts, and even older ones, as usual puts events into perspective.
However, as pertinent as any of it all is—the fog of war. And, whether it’s declared, or not, the way I believe we must understand ANY battles in ANY space-times on earth is—
WW III, or the to-the-death struggle between civilization and barbarism, with the latter, of course, manifesting as the true adherents of Islam doing their thing.
Whether it’s Libya or Londonstan, Madison, Wisconsin or Turkey, isn’t it just amazing how the correlation of forces have risen up to fight it out?
I read a great quote in the WSJ—
Decadence— defeatism before the consequences of defeat have been felt.
That about sums up another way of elucidating the defeat-victory ABSOLUTE divide!
“We are not involved with a preset script on a preset stage. We are a magnificent and terrible improvisation in which we must be spontaneous playwrights, actors, critics, and audiences. There is no orchestral score up there with every note assigned and waiting. We are, at best, an aleatoric performance. Cacophony and discord are inevitable, yet infinite combinations await us. We err and are bound to err in this open system, yet we are never bound to our errors, as an infinite ability to correct these errors is built in.
…
Any path we choose is arbitrary, but in our choice we shape the world as it is for us.”
“The Crack in the Cosmic Egg”, Joseph Chilton Pearce, 1971
When Victor and Vlahos demonstrate that the Sirocco War was not thought out — then POTUS’ press partisans will have to scribble, scribble, scribble…
Sounds fine, unless you are an Israeli. Those arab men/boys who don’t have much work, even less of an education, who get down on their knees five times a day to listen and follow the orders of their “spiritual” leaders who are given their marching orders by a god no one ever sees…these people are the “hordes” who will march right up to and into their enemies’ faces screaming their last and final words of hatred. They will march toward the Jews.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the only democratic country, Iran thirsts for Jewish blood being spilled and a country destroyed. What will Israel do?
When will they move? How hard will they fight? Will the rest of us “accept” an all out war like…World War II?
Obama-Mao is a coward, a very dangerous, angry metrosexual who lies every time he opens his mouth to the American people. He is a puppet for others who want to “bring America down to size!”
We’re in for one hell of a ride, a very dangerous ride, a deadly ride.
Who’s side will you be on? Will you fight…to the death if necessary?
I will…again if called to do so. Virtue, Honor, Humility.
Well, little lenin has certainly achieved the major thing he desired, around the clock attention.
Every pundit in the country spends his or her every waking hour debating how the great man arrived at his conclusion, the merits and demerits, what the next move is, how many allies there are, who they are, is it legal, illegal, ad nauseum. Even Mark Levin supports the effort. I heard him Levinize a caller who doesn’t support the cynical, corrupt and evil kinetic action. Levin wants the evil dictator (Gaddafi Duck, not Obama) punished, you see, and doesn’t seem to mind that the guy doing the punishing is infinitely more dangerous than the one being punished. It’s a bit like defending Stalin for whacking Franco.
It’s nuts.
Every American should oppose the dictator in everything he does, certainly in a situation like Libya, which could hardly be less consequential to the interests of the United States. Obama hasn’t done a thing in 40 years that wasn’t some devious scheme to expand his power or undermine the US. Libya is no different. It isn’t necessary to dignify his corrupt and despicable “actions” with analysis. He’s a criminal, a marxist, and an America hater. The only thing worth saying about it is that it is just another unconstitional power grab in a list too long to itemize.
Oppose him in every single thing that he does; reveal him for the slimey marxist that he is; don’t give him the satisfaction of debating the merits of his next brain fart.
Obama is the first President who actually aims to destroy the country he leads! I wonder if it is smart for us to wait until January 2013 to remove him from power!
Very good!
The only way the United States , NATO the UN or EU can change any country especially in the Muslim world is to kill the current leadership, pound the religious fundamentalists to dust and form a government similar to Turkey under Ataturk. The US Military and even NATO as a military umbrella can do the job. Unfortunately our current crop of political hacks don’t have the will or the heart do do the job. Foreign aid will not do, reason will not do it. Only military force and the willingness to kill and punish those that do not comply will work. I see no politician now in office or on the horizon that do what is necessary to effect change.
# 5: “The two worst dictatorships in the Middle East are Iran and Syria — just those which the president declared we would not “meddle” in and would seek “outreach” to. The two least bad dictatorships were the Mubarak and Ben Ali juntas — just those we ordered to dissolve. We don’t need absolute consistency from Obama, but we need a tiny bit of it . . . .”
Dr. Hanson,
I submit that this IS consistency. Consistently seek approbation from those regimes most virulently anti-Western and refuse to support those most friendly to the West. Whether in South America or the Middle East, Obama has been quite consistent in this regard.
The two worst dictatorships in the Middle East are Iran and Syria — just those which the president declared we would not “meddle” in and would seek “outreach” to.
It’s impossible to forget the visits to Bashar Assad by the fetchingly headscarfed Nancy Pelosi and Obama, when the evil George Bush was Public Enemy Number 1. And those were the good old days by comparison!
But of course. Baby Bashar is a liberal’s dictator. Having had no political aspirations, he trained in Syria and London for medicine and assumed the reins of government only reluctantly after his brother’s death. He’s married to an educated, beautiful, elegant, cultured, chic, sophisticated woman, western born and bred, unveiled and covered only in the most stylish of chapeaux. No woman like that would marry, or stay married to, a man who would countenance mowing down dissidents. He speaks impeccable English and a fair amount of French. He was close to Jacques Chirac.
Bashar claims to view democracy as a “tool to a better life” and has been speaking of economic and political reforms for over a decade. Liberals may on occasion be impatient with his progress, but understand that such reforms must be implemented slowly and cautiously and according to the customs and habits of Syria. He touts a new era for the Mideast and tells his fellow Arab leaders they must do more to adapt to their citizens’ political and economic ambitions. Syria, however, needs time to build institutions and improve education before reforming the political system. He’s reliably anti-America and anti-Israel. This is not really a problem for liberals privately. Publicly they will temper such views by explaining, as he has explained, that for Syrians, such is a core issue and stability demands there be no divergence with leadership on the matter. All in all, he’s perfect for liberals. They understand him very well.
In the politics of the Arab world there are only bad guys and worse guys. I’m glad to see the current tyrants go. What follows is not going to be democracy. It will be a contest between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Military oligarchs.
Expect it to expand. At some point Israel will most likely be drawn in – Hamas is already trying – and possibly Turkey (member of NATO) at about the same time the Kurds (that non-existent nation of 50 million spread across Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran) decide it is time to demand their own state and of course, Iran. Maybe it won’t reach that stage, but maybe it will.
Is he schoosing everyone while he thinks or just picking his nose with a glove on so when the dirty work’s done he can throw it away and say, my hands are clean.
The reason for the Libyan adventure is to set the stage for military action by the UN against Israel, using US military assets. God will not let this happen.
Doug, do you really think the Jews can’t get kicked out of Isreal?
So they have to return again? So what? Scripture will be fulfilled no mater what.
Methinks you have read far to many of the Evangelical authors from the 70s and 80s. Consider this may not be the “End Times”. Nobody has a copyright on the truth.
Not one dollar of Federal money should have been spent in Libya and we should have simply ignored the whole thing. In or out of the situation and unlike Egypt, Ghaddafi Duck could be traded out for some Taliban style regime and this time with oil money.
We should leave Iraq this very minute and Afghanistan too. We will never accomplish anything in Afghanistan, not in 100 years. In Iraq, all we are forestalling is the civil war that is likely as shi’ites in the South, Kurds in the North and Sunnis in between fight it out for supremacy and to prevent the Balkanization of the country.
On top of that you have the more unlikely scenario of a greater Kurdish state emerging out of Syria and Iraq which Turkey has said they will never allow on their border. A de facto Kurdish state practically already exists in Iraq and probably the only reason they haven’t declared themselves is that Turkish threat. Bahrain, Yemen, Syria – there is too much to involve ourselves in. Let them take out their frustrations on each other because we really don’t have a choice.
If the middle east wants to redraw the maps that Europe made for them after WW I along more ethnic and religious lines fine by me. Probably the greatest threat to U.S. interests in the region is Iran, Bahrain and the oil-rich shi’ite East of Saudi Arabia. Let the Europeans and Arabs deal with the rest. They’re the ones who made up the countries and those are the countries that think they’re so great compared to the West which they characterize as casual imperialists hypnotized by “Avatar” and posting pictures of our pets on Facebook.
Screw ‘em all. Every time we get involved more people from the affected countries are granted asylum en masse and flood into the U.S. Minnesota is still saying thank you for thousands of Somalis and those Somalis are not saying thank you but suing the state, counties and cities because we don’t treat them right. Sometimes I think immigrants come with a lawyer strapped onto their luggage.
A Preview of Obama’s Libya Speech
Our president plans, finally, to address the nation on his actions, and inactions, regarding Moammar Khadafy, Libya, maybe the United Nations, maybe NATO, maybe Hillary, maybe the price of keffiyehs in Tripoli.
Speech well-prepared, trusty teleprompters at the ready, President Barack Hussein Obama will take the Oval Office seat, long disinfected of Clinton droppings, and try to explain . . .
It was amusing when Prissy famously said in GWTW, ”I don’t know nothin’ ’bout birthin’ babies.” It’s terrifying when an American president effectively says, ”I don’t know nothin’ ’bout what tha hell is goin’ on in the world.” He also knows nothin’ ’bout being president.
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=3984
….thank you. Nice literary allusion.
Pretty well lays out the reasons why so many of us are uneasy about it. We also don’t forget the hypocrisy of S S Clinton being the front “man” on this issue so as to not overly tarnish the image of a Nobel Peace Prize. Sec Gates’ discomfort is palpable.
Seems like the ground we stand on is quicksand.
BET against the US Military. Bet against them, bet against them, bet against them. They are not supermen. They just cannot win.
Removing Khadaffi, and installing friendly forces among the rebels, requires BOOTS ON THE GROUND. INFANTRY. This is reality (and something VDH who wrote an entire book on the Western advantage in infantry forces “Culture and Carnage” should know).
In the same post, VDH cites Milosevic, and Saddam, and other failures of US Airpower. Airpower alone cannot take and hold ground. It cannot secure cities. It cannot deter guerrilla attack.
Khadaffi’s play (and the only one he has, Milosevic’s fate, and that of Pinochet and Taylor, suggest it is victory or die for Khadaffi) is to send waves of refugees to Europe (ala Mariel Boatlift), guerrilla warfare against the rebels, blow up oil fields, keep mercenaries from Africa (paid by gold holdings in Tripoli and elsewhere) in action on the ground against the rebels, and other actions (African Union support, UN counterattack, etc.) that US Airpower simply cannot address. US Airpower is supreme against mechanized ground forces, it cannot stop Khadaffi from sending mass waves of refugees to France and Italy already stressed to the max from a failing Welfare State and desperate to avoid “Camp of the Saints.”
Yes, bet and bet big against the US military. Against conventional forces they are supreme, against politics and irregulars the finest Air Force in the world cannot stop ethnic cleansing, mass refugees, and guerrilla warfare. Much less world politics or Obama’s weakness.
Obama doesn’t care much about Libya, and figures a defeat would be a good dose of moral humility for the US. He’s got his own air cover (the Media which views him as God) so conventional politics are irrelevant. Bet on a humiliating US defeat which Obama would certainly be fine with, and would not hurt his re-election chances (they hinge of massive Chicago Style fraud, race-card playing, New Black Panther style voter intimidation ['Betrayal of my people' says Holder to suggest the heresy of White voter rights] and so on out of the Al Franken playbook. Or Christine Gregoire for that matter.
Whiskey: you say to “bet against the US military”. No, as VDH said, NEVER bet against the US Military. They will win any and all wars that they are allowed to win. Bet against the politicians in DC allowing them to do their jobs without hamstringing them with suicidal rules of engagement, and not changing those rules every time a new news story in the MSM paints even 1 US military member in a bad light.
The quality of our military is irrelevant when it is given tasks that have no military or diplomatic purpose. We saw this in Vietnam where our military supported one corrupt dictator after another while being forced to cooperate with incompetent South Vietnamese military leaders and not being allowed to bring the battle to North Vietnam.
Intervening in Libya ranks among the stupidest tasks our nation has undertaken. If we kill Gaddafi and his cronies, Libya will undergo a period of anarchy followed by the emergence of either a dictator or a theocrat. (There’s no chance in hell of a republic or democracy emerging.) If the anarchy lasts too long, Libya will fracture along tribal, ethnic, and religious lines and turn into a Somalia or a Yugoslavia. Hundreds of thousands of Libyans could die.
I still hold the opinion that Obama truly hates the USA and wants to remake it. He is doing everything possible to reduce our international prestige and power while destroying our economy. Obama favors dictators because he hopes to become one after his “leadership” causes the US to collapse.
Dr. T:
As Obama moves on to become King Of The World that he is building, brick, by brick by brick, has it occurred to anyone just how dangerous this uncontrolled Manchild really is?
The United States of America obligated to pass muster with the United Nations but not the United States Congress? No Constitutional restraints on the President of the United States at this point in our history?
Pontificating is an exercise in futility. When are the calls for impeachment going to start to penetrate the wall of silence that surrounds us? Do you Know? Does anyone still care?
I would love for you to find me a congressional approval for Regan’s 1986 bombing of Libya.
Obama the first post-modern, Virtual president. Back-breaking debt is virtual too. Compound interest, stagflation what are they?
Progressives – only the UN can solve international conflict.
One can polish a Nobel peace medal, and UN mandates so much..
Not to worry, the Treasury having been looted, they are grabbing money hot off the printing press…
VDH, Obama went to the UN and the Arab League and not to Congress, because he views one of them as “enemies” and the other as people to whom he reports and for whom he serves.
And you are a far, far better man than I …because you are trying to make sense out of the incoherence that stands as our foreign policy, our domestic policy, our fiscal policy and our legal framework under this administration.
When the day passed that our mass media left their posts and became co-conspirators in the leftist takeover of our information stream, rigged the game so that Democrats started with a 15-25% “fixed” lead, buried key facts, distorted the truth and hamstrung inquiry, strangled principled dissent…they made it unnecessary for leftist politicians to EVER have to put together a coherent argument to do…well, anything.
And, now they can’t. They wallow in abject hypocrisy and fraud. We are lead by sheer chaos.
There is no real paradox, because their is nothing but shifting sand beneath us at our foundation. Leftist Democrats are puny, weaklings, sissies…trying to “butch up” against tyrants and despots…while simultaneously hiding behind the skirts of the UN and assorted Euro-dandies and nancyboys.
This administration can’t muster a coherent argument about enemies of state…precisely because they believe the only ones that qualify work for Fox News or have joined the Tea Party.
Huzzah! Well said cf. We are under enemy occupation by the left.
CF Bleachers….as always, you are my hero!
I think we’ll not see Rendition II mostly because Rendition I made just a pittance over $27 million worldwide at the box office.
The Fraud in Chief stumbled into a trap. Gaddafi has the gold to keep this going a long time. He of such celebrated and incredible judgement, I guess TOTUS was in the shop, said “days, not weeks.” I assume an army of liberals cringed at that while studiously avoiding mentioning the pompous gaffe. It’s all done in classic Obama style, full of righteous bombast, outright lies, and total confusion. The Glory Days of 2008 are long gone. Anyone with guts could mop the floor with this idiot in 2012. Seeing all these timid GOP “leaders” suck up to the media and obsess about not taking any blame for the fallout from introducing sanity into the federal government, the only real men among the contenders seem to be wearing heels and skirts. Cain being an exception.
Patriotic American reserve their criticism of the POTUS policy to within our shores.
This has been loyal Americans policy since 1776.
Victor,
What planet were you visiting for the 8 years of the Bush administration? Or is it that Democrats get a pass because treason, as we’re instructed by the Left, is the highest, most patriotic form of dissent?
Not as long as my tax money is being used to support a Euro war for oil. Especially with our national debt. And as LGoPS notes, the Democrats showed us the way during the Bush era. But I don’t hear the liberals giving Bush kudos for taking out a psycho dictator and his sons for “humanitarian” reasons while saving the world from a second nuclear power in the Middle East, Iran on its way to being the first.
Single fist name. No data. Assertions, and veiled insults.
A troll.
This is what they do. The idea is to state something that in some other context might be considered rational or even correct.
You don’t see many of them come into PJM and just spout their lunatic views. They know the intelligence and knowledge levels of PJM readers are too high to be suckered. So they try, over and over, the less direct approach.
If they raise a doubt in the mind of even one of you, they succeeded.
The problem with Victor’s statement, which would have been true for all but the last 2 years of US history, is that loyalty to an un-american president isn’t patriotism, it’s lunacy.
Thanks for the advice, really rich coming from a Turk.
What happens when you guys criticize Edrogan?
Victor, Typically, a President doesn’t trash his country or his predecessors while on foreign lands. Obama did it just last week by lying about Bush’s leadership into and his multilateral (not unilateral) approach to the Iraq War.
And liberal politicians did it regularly in Bush’s 8 years….they also met with enemies of America during that time (Assad comes to mind).
We sowed the SEED, and now we are reaping the harvest in the Middle East.
I said at the time, that installing a Democracy in Iraq was one of the greatest strategic maneuvers in Human history. It was an example of cultural judo of the first water, putting the naturally corruption reducing Democracy in what was once the most cosmopolitan Arab nation was the best response to 9/11.
Bush is going to gain huge credit for this, as he should.
Everyone is worried about the Moslem Brotherhood, and Islamists taking control from the Tyrants. But, I wonder how much credit they will get in the polling booth, as I seriously doubt that they will be able to take control without a vote. And even if it’s the case of “One man, One vote, Onetime” that is still a Victory for us, as it is a Cultural recognition on their part, that only a Democratic vote can confer Legitimacy.
We Win!!!
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen; please be seated.
Let me explain to you in Austrian, what is going on in the Middle East and what America’s role is in this kinetic military operation at present:
Our Army, having been bravely volunteered by the UN, the Arab League, the EU, and all 57 islamic Nations is currently pursuing a major, although minor, overseas contigency operation aiming about 57 tomahauk missles on a daily basis directly at the 57 tents of a man capable of performing serious man-made disasters, such as buying FIAT and the soccer club Juventus.
I’m told by the retiring Secretary of Defense and the also retiring Secretary of State that the duration of this external volunteering of our armed forces might last at least 57 days, weeks or even years, since nobody knows for sure for how long these external entities will be volunteering our kinetically capable military. After this present kinetic military operation is over, whenever that might be, hopefully before the SOD and SOS retire, we plan to reduce its cost by 6,000% and thus achieve great savings for our seniors, and their COALAS and what they bear, and will volunteer them to do more kinetics themselves to remain in good shape. Our brave corpses-men will see to it, I’m sure.
I hope the above is quite clear to all of you, good fellows present, and since I also notice that some reporters are voluntarily hiding in our WH closets I volunteer them now to come out, if they can find the doorway. All of you please go back to all 57 States and explain this to all Americans in plain English – since I can’t. Now, you would excuse me but since the American people have volunteered me to go on vacation, I’m on my way to a really long overdue trip to Bora-Bora to promote trade.
Thank you.
just insert a few “let me be clear(s)” and you’ve nailed it
You forgot the 412 “ehs”, “ums” and “ahs”
Dear Mr. President: Let me be perfectly clear. I have a “kinetic contingency operation for you” – my boot up your a–.
The fall of the French monarchy eventually produced Napoleon. The fall of the Russian monarchy produced Lenin and Stalin.
Will the tyrant who replaces Quaddafi be associated with al Qaeda which can provide a would be tyrant with thousands of combat veterans to help establish a government?
The U.S. has been fighting a war against al Qaeda since 9/11. If Obama’s efforts to unseat Quaddafi helps al Qaeda take power that could lead to impeachment for giving aid and comfort to the enemy. It could lead to a new McCarthy era in the U.S. and the new McCarthy could have actually evidence to support his efforts.
None of the Arab states have the stability to send troops to Libya. NATO has to be prepared to send troops immediately to reestablish order. Turkish troops would be preferable because they are Muslims, but someone other than al Qaeda needs to act.
VDH:
I would have liked your Libyan paradoxes better with a couple of more points:
1. Gitmo is no longer a recruitment tool for terrorists. Libya is.
2. Libya is a quagmire, with little hope for long term stability. It is not acceptable to take credit for saving lives when those lives continue to be in jeopardy. In Iraq/Afghanistan there has been a commitment to save lives.
3. Humanitarian aid for Libya would require stability on the ground, therefore, it is an oxymoron to call a no fly zone a humanitarian mission.
4. Obama has lost all credibility in the eyes of our enemies. Only the US military is feared. However, now that Obama has volunteered the US military to the World, our enemies must feel that the US military is constrained by international consensus. How can the subjection of the US military to the World not affect morale?
It will be interesting when the first prisoner is taken by the US/Coalition forces. They will need to put him somewhere, but where? Could it be that they take him to Guantanamo for safe-keeping and questioning? It will be interesting to watch the gyrations of MSNBC and CNN as they try to ignore their previous exhortations about the horror of Guantanamo and Iraq when their chosen leader does it.
#6 – the one that truly angers me and makes me fearful for the future. Congress (and the citizenry) has allowed our Prez to seek his approvals and guidance from the UN and the Arab League without so much as briefings for the US Legislature. Precedents are set. Somebody convince me that the UN is not now directly in our chain of command, at least as long as this man or any man from this party is president.
#5 – if there is a plan it has nothing to do with geopolitical strategies. It’s local politics. Nothing about this little war makes sense. And short of total disaster, the outcome won’t matter much as the campaign bs begins to flow next year.
#7 & 9 – VDH greatly underestimates the gall of both BHO and the MSM if he thinks Obama won’t claim victory (whether one exists or not, or even in defeat) and will not be backed up in those claims by the MSM. How quickly we forget Bill Clinton.
Israel is looking more and more like Masda. The ramp to her fortress is being built one country at a time.
Iran may already have nuclear weapons and if they do that might have been the spark that set the middle east on fire.
The end game is the obliteration of Israel – Halocaust II.
AL QAIDA’S WANING AND WAXING FORTUNES
While we clobber al-Qaida in Af/Pak and their fortunes decline there they are quickly rising and gathering strength in North Africa because of this ill-conceived French led Libyan operation. Wasn’t it the French that led us into the long losing Odyssey of a war called Vietnam? Watch out for my upcoming piece on my widely linked blog: Libya, the French Connection and the Specter of Vietnam.
VDH:
Expect him to assure us of success, thousands of lives saved, and a mission now “toned down” and “handed over” to NATO.
And expect msm and various punditry to call him decisive, presidential, and a world (or world-class) leader.
I would like to remind the readers that one recurrent argument against intervention in the Middle East is unintended negative consequences.
The classic example was the unintended effect of helping (with money, supplies, intel, and stinger missiles) the Mujahideen in Afghanistan fight off the Soviet Army. This created a large number of well armed, well funded, experienced fighters, and a whole infrastructure to train more of them and to fund and supply their efforts. Empowered by victory over the Soviets (which was enabled by us), they eventually turned their attention to other targets (us) and became today’s terrorists – Taliban and al Qaeda. When we armed and empowered the Muj in Afghanistan we didn’t know they would become our enemy.
By contrast, it is pretty obvious that the ‘rebels’ in Libya have significant connections to al Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood, etc. With our support (if it continues) they will eventually win, and be well armed, empowered, and funded with oil revenues. If they lose, they will blame us for not supporting them more. Either way, this will probably turn out like our effort in Afghanistan, and create another source of instability which will eventually attack us. Except this time you would think we would know better.
Victor Davis Hanson, the consummate optimist. I was in the US Navy during the Carter years, this administration seems little different, except for the ego. Remember Viet Nam and the how the French helped us in there? Obumer has been played . . . again!
I have the utmost faith in our military.
However, give it an incoherent mission, command by ?, insane rules of engagement, tie 1.5 arms behind it’s back, and performance to be assessed by the MSM, and then what? Here’s an impossible job – now go do it.
I haven’t heard much talk about CHICKENHAWKS! and it would seem that these folks currently lobbing bombs all over the place have even less experience at war than Bush/Cheney.
It’s really sickening to me, these people are honestly horrible.
AL QAIDA’S WANING AND WAXING FORTUNES
While we clobber al-Qaida in Af/Pak and their fortunes decline in that region they’re quickly rising and gathering strength in North Africa because of this ill-conceived French led Libyan operation. Wasn’t it the French that led us into the long, losing Odyssey of a war called Vietnam? Watch out for my upcoming piece on my widely linked Townhall blog: Libya, the French Connection and the Specter of Vietnam.
Shovel-ready jobs lost? Well, I listened to the Diane Rheems show in the car today (yeah, I did swear off NPR for the duration of my life on this planet but my husband was driving and he wanted to listen to it) and the commentator was lamenting the number of GREEN JOBS that were lost! Good for a giggle anyway.
Okay, so say we “win”, Qadaffi takes a flight into exile, and the rebels take control of the country. Then, in a great celebration of their victory, they proceed to slaughter their tribal opponents in western Libya….
VDH:
1. Could you please analyze why the British and French think Libya is in their vital national interest? Especially after the Brits cut a deal with the current Libyan regime in exchange for the Pan Am bomber.
2. I missed BHO’s speech tonight. Thank goodness. Watched a great Creighton basketball game. We defeated the Oregon Ducks coached by our former genius coach, Dana Altman.
3. Obama must be defeated.
Obama is like the mouse in the maze that does not which way to turn!
What Obama did his made American’s to catch the tiger tail. you cann’t keep on holding the tail or you can’t release the tail, if u release it will kill you. like that libya matter seems far from ending making it another semi arab war, which need military funding allocation for next couple of year in budget. how brilliant he is, When his home is burning he rushing to save the neighbor’s home
Point 1. Obama is presumably hoping that the infantry is supplied by the locals, as happened in Afghanistan. He may be right. Or perhaps he really does not care whether Gaddafi goes. Perhaps the procedure is more important to him than the result.
Point 3. This is crucial. We cannot control who the new rulers of Libya will be. For that reason alone the venture is reckless and wasteful. It is extremely probable that they will feel no gratitude to us, or any warm sentiment to us. It seems much more likely that they will look on us as enemies, or as useful fools.
It is not credible that the USA gets any benefit from this military action. It only bears the cost. Any benefit only goes to foreigners.
Time to queue up the u-tube music video of…
“I can’t fight this feeling anymore….I’ve forgotten what I started fighting for….”
Paradoxes can be such a quagmire for the decision making processes.
…. while you and I know he is a monster, the multicultural left and the corporate “right” feel, well, that he either should not be judged by our arbitrary ethnocentric standards — or has lots of oil and money — or both ….
Beg your pardon, Doctor Hanson but I fail to see much if anything even “right” – let alone Right! – about America’s Corporatism Corps.
And some of its generals – the Friedrich Krupp AG Hoesch-Krupp-like General Electric, for example — and its Gustav Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach-like CEO — are unarguably and definitively fascistic!