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by
Rick Moran

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September 14, 2013 - 2:07 pm
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Explaining the “pause” in warming has become a “cottage industry” says Ridley:

It is now more than 15 years since global average temperature rose significantly. Indeed, the IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri has conceded that the “pause” already may have lasted for 17 years, depending on which data set you look at. A recent study in Nature Climate Change by Francis Zwiers and colleagues of the University of Victoria, British Columbia, found that models have overestimated warming by 100% over the past 20 years.

Explaining this failure is now a cottage industry in climate science. At first, it was hoped that an underestimate of sulfate pollution from industry (which can cool the air by reflecting heat back into space) might explain the pause, but the science has gone the other way—reducing its estimate of sulfate cooling. Now a favorite explanation is that the heat is hiding in the deep ocean. Yet the data to support this thesis come from ocean buoys and deal in hundredths of a degree of temperature change, with a measurement error far larger than that. Moreover, ocean heat uptake has been slowing over the past eight years.

The most plausible explanation has always been that the scientists have simply been wrong — that their flawed models and questionable methodologies gave the wrong answers to legitimate scientific questions. The problem is that change in the consensus won’t come overnight. In the meantime, governments will ignore this gradual walk back by the IPCC and continue to act as if the world will end unless we give them control of the world’s economies.

Others are ignoring the lowered temperature predictions and are latching on to other aspects of the report that feed the hysteria. There so many who have so much invested in the theory of catastrophic climate change that it isn’t likely the meme will disappear any time soon.

But if the IPCC keeps reducing its predictions of rising temperatures, the hysterics will find themselves on the outside looking in.

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Rick Moran is PJ Media's Chicago editor and Blog editor at The American Thinker. He is also host of the"RINO Hour of Power" on Blog Talk Radio. His own blog is Right Wing Nut House.

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All Comments   (20)
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If the computer models that predict global warming -- oops! climate change!-- are run backwards in time, the models do not recognize known historic fluctuations in climate such as the Little Ice Age of the 17th century, the Medieval Warm Period of the 12th century, or the Roman Climate Optimum of 100 BC - 250 AD. Therefore the models are wrong, which isn't surprising because the underlying theory of atmospheric circulation is poorly developed.
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
the lying frauds, alarmist warmist climatologists, now exposed as the lying cheats they are, attempting to deceive us they aren't really bought and paid for shills of Agenda 21, purchased by government grants that greatly enriched them and gave them fame, now want us to think it was simply harmless mistakes...

Go read the climategate emails again. these fraudsters should be imprisoned, we squandered HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS because of their lies....
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
What an interestiing way of admitting they lied.
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
Nick Taylor, you do know that the polar ice, at both ends of the globe, now appears to be increasing.
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
"The most plausible explanation has always been that the scientists have simply been wrong"

No . . . the IPCC report doesn't support that conclusion, and neither does the underlying science. And it's not a "meme" - the science underlying climate change/global warming goes back to the 1800's, and is supported not just by models, but by studying the Earth's response to changes in orbit, volcanic eruptions, sudden releases of carbon, and impacts by asteroids during its history.

I would love to believe that a few years of slower warming of surface temperature mean that we no longer need to concern ourselves, but we would be foolish to do so. We know that 1998 was an exceptionally hot year because of a very large El Nino - a periodic event where the oceans give up a great deal of heat energy to the atmosphere. Since that time, the oceans have been absorbing an extraordinary amount of heat energy. Between melting polar ice, atmosphere and the oceans, there has been no slowdown in warming of the Earth.

The IPCC is not lowering its projections of future warming, so how can it "keep lowering" them?
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
So in 1998, the climate scientists were telling us to disregard the anomalous high temps created by El Nino because it wasn't representative of global warming models? Not in my universe. They were pushing the record temps as PROOF of global warming.

Then they were been trying to deny the lack of warming for 15 years until it became clear that it had to be addressed. Now you write it off as a hiccup? A hiccup COMPLETELY unpredicted in EVERY SINGLE climate model? How many other hiccups don't the climate models foresee? Did these models predict heat absorption by the oceans? Climatologists miss (as in - didn't consider) two [apparently] very significant forcers that completely throw a monkey wrench into the predictions, yet claim every thing is going by theory. Excuse me, THAT'S enough proof to show that the "experts" don't know enough to predict the end of the world. Period.

The IPCC admits climate models are way off but the theory is sound? What the hell do you base that on when the whole theory is based on these models? If the models are off, then the theory is off. And I'll remind you that these are the same climate models that predict Armeggedon and the reason that we all have to make massive sacrifices to avoid the end of civilization.

It's laughable that you still insist that global warming is proceeding as predicted. It appears to me the only reason that you think that man-made global warming exists is because your theory says it does. What a wonderful circular argument. Only blind faith gives someone that much moxie. You hyped your doomsday scenario on these theories, so don't try to pretend that their failures have no bearing on the climate debate.
30 weeks ago
30 weeks ago Link To Comment
Please read the article today about the over abundance of Polar Ice. You seem to be working with Fat Albert's old script.
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
Been drinking a bit too much elixir from The Goracle's supply eh?

Do your homework - the polar caps have been putting on a prodigious amount of ice these past few months. The Arctic ice was predicted to have vanished in 2013 - not only has it not vanished it has added ice - and in August of all months! The temperatures around the world have on average been FLAT! Read the IPCC's own report if you don't believe me. This isn't to say that warming isn't happening on the longer term - but that the 'prognosticators' from the left in science circles didn't even get the short term patters right. The IPCC's own report is a tacit admission of that fact.

Do your homework!
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
Its not "a few years", its been a decade and a half of flat temps which none of the vaunted models predict.

And as noted, if the new IPCC "predictions" include in their lower bound increases that have net benefits then all the apocalyptic rhetoric is deflated.
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
Amazing, what ever happend Global Warming, now it's Climate Change,hmmm. Climate continually changes over the years. In the 1970's it was global cooling the media was babbling about, the 1600's to the early 1800's have been called the Little Ice Age, and to keep it short, there was the real, big Ice Age'.
Some people need causes to justify their existence and give themselves ego boosts. Plus you can make some money off it, some of them actually believe it.
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
I suggest a new caption.

CLIMATE GUESSES ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
No, No, NO! The science is settled - it has been for many years - algore has spoken, no new evidence can ever change that - never, so shut up!!
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
Right now there is enormous behind the scenes pressure, and probably some more journal fraud of the kind we've seen in every previous IPCC report to try to undermine any conclusion that puts the report behind what is essentially the skeptic position.

Its going to be hilarious.
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
There is waaay too much money at stake for all of these global warming worshipers to just admit they are wrong and have been wrong and walk away from it all. Many of them have made a living at this fraud for decades and know that they have no other viable way of generating enough income to survive on - literally.

There are thousands of 'non-profits' out there that claim to have 'climate change' as their mission and there is no way they are going to give it up until every last penny has been milked from governments around the world (and a lot of private sector money as well).

So, although honest scientists will continue to report the facts about this issue, the fraudsters will continue to play to the fear and guilt of the mindless minions around the world who believe everything they hear on the subject and will continue to believe the world is about to end due to 'climate change'. And that is what the fraudsters are counting on.
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
I wish in vain that you were wrong. It would be in vain, though.
31 weeks ago
31 weeks ago Link To Comment
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