So far this season, the Supreme Court has been in a punting mood, as most decisions have essentially “split the difference,” neither striking down nor definitively upholding any particular issue, but instead tinkering with legal niceties and inscrutable details (see their Affirmative Action and Voting Rights Act decisions for the most noteworthy examples of this attitude).
As a result, I predict that the Supreme Court will punt on gay marriage as well, and will either DECLINE TO RULE or possibly STRIKE DOWN Prop 8 but only on limited technical grounds that solely affect California.
I’d be pretty surprised if they went to one or the other extremes — force all 50 states to accept gay marriage; or alternately rule that the Feds have no basis to define marriage at all — which will be pretty disappointing for people on both sides of the aisle who want the argument to just finally be over (with their side winning conclusively, of course).
San Francisco already has a Gay-marriage-pocalypse Day official event set up for today, which will either turn into a wild ecstatic street party if the ruling goes their way, an angry riot if the ruling goes against them, or a confused half-satisfied but half-disappointed anti-climax if, as I predict, the Supreme Court takes the middle path.
What is your prediction — and what is your preferred outcome?