If my read is correct, fifty electoral votes remain up for grabs in just four states: Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio. Romney only needs either Ohio or Michigan to get to 270. He could also win Iowa and Wisconsin to get there. Obama needs a combination of some among those four states to win. Even winning Ohio and Michigan only gets him to 265. He needs to pull a triple play to get past 270.
Last night’s vice presidential debate isn’t likely to have changed much. President Obama has to repair the damage done during the first presidential debate plus contend with the building scandal from the Benghazi attack, while appealing to middle ground voters, among whom Romney currently and consistently leads. This race isn’t Romney’s to lose, but it could become that after the second presidential debate if Obama does not perform far better than he did during the first debate.
Update: New numbers from Rasmussen show Romney cracking the 50% mark.
Update: New numbers from Virginia show Romney leading by 7.
Texas is “likely” Republican, not “solid”?
Really?
Yeah, that’s RCP’s take and it’s dumb. But it calculates in Romney’s EV total so I didn’t bother to change it.
I blame Austin.
I’m in Austin. The center of town is democrat. the suburbs and new houses ringing the place are republican.
I’d be more worried about blatant voter fraud in Houston. The democrats themselves made documentaries about how Obama stole the primary out from Hillary using fake ballots in Houston.
The Rio Grande Valley is also a known go-to spot for buying democrat ballots. the question is: fast and furious targeted mexicans, and univision broadcasts in spanish. So, which way will those votes go?
Fast and Furious/a.k.a. Sinaloa targeted Zetas (stronger in the parts of Mexico near Texas) so I could see an 80% Romney vote there. Hence why the Z’s were expendable.
I’ll never forget the pictures of those blood soaked carpets and walls of that party massacre.
Democrats win Dallas, Austin and Houston.
With Ted Cruz throwing his hat in the ring, and defeating the established David Dewhurst (RINO) you can look for Hispanics to vote for the Hispanic Republican, even in the border counties.
Texas is leading the way with Hispanic Republicans; Ted Cruz, Francisco Canseco, Bill Flores.
Wherever you have large cities you have hoards of ignorant takers voting for their freebies from the welfare trough.
Missouri is “likely” for Romney. Sure, as in the sun is likely to rise in the east tommorrow and to set in the west.
Texas is a ‘Red State’…for now. The demographic trends are not in our favor. From San Antonio south to the border, the map looks like the Rio Grande has spilled its banks. Dallas is now blue, and elected a openly gay sheriff. Houston elected an openly gay mayor! Denton (where I live) and Austin are college towns and thus infested with entitlement titty-babies who vote D until they’re blue in the face. Eddie Bernice Johnson and Sheila Jackson Lee are from Texas! Further to the trend, next time you’re on the roads, count how many California plates you see. When we get ‘news’ stories about another left coast burger joint or grocery store opening with the people celebrating ‘it’s just like back home!’, it would be a mistake to assume they only brought their palates with them, not their politics. And of course, now we have another back door amnesty program, and you can be sure that the lawyers are already in place to get them their ballots for the upcoming election.
Its a shame that happens…I split from the Peoples Republik of Jersey 30 years ago to the Delaware Valley of PA, mostly over gun laws and taxes…and more folks move keep here, but most seem to bring their dumb voting habits with them, and it tilts further Left every year.
I can tell you in the last 10 years, every SINGLE person with a sports coat and a clipboard I’ve met “canvasing” or “campaigning” in our neighborhood is a left wing busybody up to no freaking good. The type of person MOTIVATED to get into politics is never a good neighbor to have. Political ambition of any kind is an immediate sign of low morals and and trustworthiness.
They take over the schools and the purse strings, and pretty soon all youre left with is bad, and worse, nothing good to be had, and no chance of “going back” to the way it was before they ruined it.
The last poll of Texas gave Romney a 19 point lead. That is hardly “leaning.” As far as the demographics of Texas changing to give it a bluer hue because California companies are relocating to Texas, while those companies are coming to more tax friendly country, the Californians are not migrating in the great numbers they did in the aftermath of the market meltdown in ’08. You see, Californians are so hooked on their state they can’t dream of ever living in redneck land, which is what they consider Texas to be.
Now, I live in a very, VERY blue town in Central Texas although my county has turned red. Four years ago there were young (college students, perhaps?) adults going from house to house asking residents to put Obama signs in their yards. Not this year. And this year, in my very blue town, Romney yard signs outnumber Obama signs 10 to 1.
Now as to Austin: four years ago the Obama bumper stickers were so plentiful in Austin you couldn’t count them all. Obama signs everywere. Last Thursday I had the displeasure of having to go to Austin. I counted TWO Obama bumper stickers and only one street, 38th, was lined with Obama yard signs. You see, Austinites have to buy gas to get to work, and they are very aware of the prices. Doubling gas prices doesn’t exactly warm the hearts of Texans, even Austinites.
As to the border counties: take a look at who their U.S. Congressman is. Francisco Canseco has most of the border counties and he is a [Hispanic] Republican that booted Ciro Rodriquez in 2010. He is well liked by other Hispanics, yet Canseco is a solid border security proponent. As to Shiela Jackson Lee’s district, well, yes, there was rampant voter fraud there in 2010, but True The Vote has done yoeman’s work in getting those voter rolls cleaned up, and they started in Jackson Lee’s district.
Listing Texas as “leaning” red is wishful thinking on the part of RealClear. Also, saying that Texas is turning blue is just a fairy tale put out by left leaners who want the nation to think that Texas is in play. It is not. When a county like mine, that was solid blue and elected its first Republican county official since Reconstruction in 2008 and now has replaced almost every Democrat county official with a Republican, if anything, Central Texas, the fastest growing area of Texas, is turning bluer every day.
Ooops, correction:
The last sentence should read: is turning redder every day.
Texas is as red as any state this cycle and for the next three for sure.
But if we as Conservatives cannot get hispanics to understand the importance of liberty and freedom and how the govenment wants to make you a slave then Texas will go back to becoming blue by 2024. The number one name for baby boys in Texas for the last two years is “Juan” and “Maria” for girls.
I am an 7th generation Native Texan and my Grandson is a 9th. My goal is to live to see a 10th generation “Sanchez” Texan.
Regarding the speculations some are making that if Obama is reelected or even if he loses we are likely to see Civil War and rioting in the street I can only bring up the expression Mr Jefferson used when he said “the tree of liberty must be replenished every some years by the blood of patriots and tyrants”. I can only say that I think that a real good fertilizing is in order.
I am ready. Are you?
The Democrats haven’t won a state-wide race in Texas since 1996. Texas has 29 state-wide elected officials, more than any other state. Democrats have had literally hundreds of chances to elect someone–anyone–statewide in the last sixteen years, and they have failed utterly.
They are the least-functional major party in the country.
Next to them, Illinois Republicans are major-leaguers.
Texas is the definition of “lock” for Romney.
Um, Texas and South Carolina are only “likely”, not solid? I highly doubt that.
This article made my day!
I honestly believe that one of Maine’s electoral votes will go for Romney, as will New Hampshire, so shift 5 from Obama to Romney. After that I can’t argus the map all that much.
Absolutely – at the very least, New Hampshire should be a toss-up.
This is how a preference cascade begins. It was tight and Obama kept it close by $120 million in negative ads against Romney between the end of the primaries and the convention (when Romney could only spend primary money, which he had mostly used up winning the nomination), but he never managed to get to 50% support.
The debate showed the voters Romney was no monster, that it was okay to consider him as an alternative. The cascade begins, and will end in an avalanche.
It is even likely that Todd Akin will beat McCaskill in Missouri.
after 2010 there is chance all of Maine will, but I don’t think it will be a “for sure” Obama state.
bunch of us pissed off racists clinging to our guns and bibles up here…..
I dispute NH leaning Obama. In 2010 it swung rather sharply Republican, and, as a resident of Manchester, I can tell you that there are Romney signs everywhere, far outnumbering Obama signs. The only problem might be the double-voters at the various universities. I agree with RPL that NH should be, at least, leaning R.
Romney’s a lock in Ohio also. Won’t be close.
I agree. And that puts Romney over the top all by itself.
I think the same.
Ok, I’ll bite: Why do you think Ohio is a lock?
Because Romney is a lock in rural parts of the entire state and the entire southwest that includes Cincinnati. Draw a diagonal from the upper northeast to Cincinnati: that’s Romney’s. Add to that Obama’s under-performance compared with ’08 in Cuyahoga Co. together with the decrease in Democrat registration in that county compared with ’08, as well as his under-performance in Franklin and the ring of counties surrounding Franklin (Romney looks likely to sweep the ‘burbs) and you’re looking at a Romney win; and it may not be close.
Correction: He has a lock on the southeast below that diagonal stretching from the northeast corner to Cincy. Culturally, that part of the state is like bordering regions of western PA, West Va, and Kentucky.
If there are any Ohioans reading this story and comments, make sure you vote NO on state issue 2. Democrats and their union buds are behind it.
It’s getting interesting. When TSHTF, people want “grups” in charge. It’s one thing to throw tantrums and say that Republicans “hate gays”, for example, because of an opposition to gay marriage, but we saw in Benghazi people who really DO hate gays (I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Ambassador Stephens was the guy targeted. The Administration essentially condemned a gay man to die. I wonder how many new Log Cabin Republicans there are this month?
Jeannette, this (Friday) morning Rush talked about the ‘Help Wanted’ ads by the State Department seeking local bodyguards/ security/ paramilitary personnel to protect the Benghazi consulate. The notices said applicants in a same-sex relationship were welcome. Let that same-sex stigma get bantered about in muslim Libya and it’s no wonder the ambassador’s protection detail both ran from the fight and volunteered the location of the safe house. And it’s also more background evidence to explain what happened to the ambassador, and probably the staffer, before they were murdered.
What was the strange thing the dog did in the night ?
Not one word from the families or the administration about autopsy results.
Heck, here in Jersey, I see more signs for Romney/Ryan than Zero – by an order of magnitude. Mind you, I’m not tooling around in Camden, but we have a Republican governor here and no money spent on ads. I’m just saying…dare I think it? No, wait, just stay calm….
Sorry Jersey girl…
Obama will easily carry New Jersey, a state so ridiculously Democratic, even Lincoln couldn’t make a dent, TWICE….
True, occasionally they’ll toss a completely corrupted tax-monster Local Democratic (Florio, Corzine) for his opponent, but they’ll otherwise never leave The Fold in a National Election. “The machine” is lubricated with far too many Guilty White Liberals who work for/bill to The State in one form or another (Doctors, Lawyers, Shrinks, Teachers, Union Bums) or are simply conditioned to the prevailing nanny-state political climate of Manhattan, where a full-on commie like Bloomberg can be called a “republican”.
To quote one particularly famous Jersey boy:
“…it’s a Death trap, it’s a suicide rap,
we gotta get out while we’re young,
Tramps like us, Baby we were born to run”
I bailed in the ‘81 right out of high school and never looked back.
Jersey is like Boot Camp….it toughens you, you’re better equipped to handle the adversity, treachery, treason, and corruption of the world from the experience, but you’d never want to LIVE there for the rest of your LIFE.
The fact that the Nets abandoned NJ — for Brooklyn, of all places — tells you all you need to know about the place.
I moved out of NJ in 1981, but came back in 2000 after 20 years out west. After enduring the craziness of California and the brutal heat of the Arizona desert, I find the Garden State pretty nice. And BTW, Springsteen still lives here.
Of course he still lives there, he’s one of “them”
The elite Lefties, who’s money “fame” and connections can insulate them from the reality of their politics. The kind who make life so difficult for average people, they are “Born to Run” to take their best shot somewhere ELSE… where they might stand a chance, where the deck isnt stacked against them, where the “promise” of uncorrupted freedom still awaits…Ironic aint it Mr. Springsteen? You are now the negative influence in the world sang about!
Most of all, I love how he’s referred to now as some kind of “grandfather” of rock, as if he was always some huge mega-star, right up there with the Beatles and the Stones…I can tell you he wasnt.
Because I was a huge Bruce fan way back then, blue collar, hot-rodder, dirt under my nails build it with your own hands guy….and their weren’t many of us listening to him in 77-82, thats what made it special.
There were only a hand full of us in any high school, and we were outcasts for sure…all the kids destined for college back then (before “everybody” went to college?) couldn’t STAND him. Most girls HATED him….eeewwww a blue collar gear-head? Yuk!
The Truth is, Bob Seger got more radio airplay than Bruce ever did, right here in the Jersey/New York/Philly market…you were lucky to catch a song a week on the radio back then, back in his “prime”, when the music was “real”.
He lost his first Grammy nomination to “Jessies Girl” by Rick Freaking Springfield for cryin out loud.
It wasn’t until his politics became openly Leftist/anti Reagan-Bush that he was “accepted” by the beautiful people, the ones who never heard a note or lyric prior to “dance mix” version of “dancing in the dark” came out…
…and they have since crafted (and he accepts, with a wink and a nod) the false notion that he was a “hugely popular Rock God” back when his music was authentic, and his politics virtually unknown.
Bruce today is just like Jersey Politics…falsely altruistic, throwing the right “liberal bone” to the crowd, while actually BEING one of the loathsome one-percenters they complain about
That is a pretty map you’ve drawn, Mr Preston. And it’s accurate too. As you say, Wisconsin is the key state, not Ohio. This year it is not all about Ohio.
During election season I’ve maintained that North Carolina was NOT Obama territory, just as sure for Romney as Indiana, Missouri and Arizona. The two absolutely critical states are Florida and Virginia. I couldn’t conceive of a Florida majority vote for Obama this time around but could never be certain Virginia isn’t falling into democrat miasma. Now, I feel such a rush of relief. I’m a believer! Virginia is for Romney and America is ripe for saving. New poll: Roms up 7 in VA.
The other essential pair is Colorado and Iowa. I’m from a Plains state and never doubted Colorado and Iowa are for Romney. Whatever the pollers said, I knew Colorado and Iowa will vote against the past four years- too much morality and good sense to vote for Obama twice. Colorado and Iowa are a lock for Romney.
So that’s a solid 263 electoral votes in the Romney column. Where did the citizenry withstand the strongest onslaught of progressive rage, mob and media organization, and individually mean attacks, wave after wave, nonstop for over two years? Wisconsin.
The patriot heros of Wisconsin fought the very Devil and won. Wisconsin will be the state that wins the election for Romney and our children’s future.
If Romney wins in a landslide tsunami volcano hurricane, pulling in PA, OH, MI, MN, NM, NV, and OR- over 360 EV- it is still Wisconsin who won this election.
Thanks cheeseheads. On Wisconsin! Go Packers, Hurray for Beer! We owe you guys. I love you man.
You forgot Harley-Davidson.
Aw man! I sure did. THE American Ride. Made me laugh, Bob. Not only left out Harley Davidson, I forgot New Hampshire!
As of today, after Paul Ryan held the high ground against the Biden assault, I think Wisconsin is a lock for Romney. According to my logic that means Republican victory is assured with 273 electoral votes.
Ripe fruit ready for Romney harvest: Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Michigan. Then Pennsylvania. 337 EV.
Come on, SuperPACs and Repub Senate Committee, let’s get ten new Senators elected to go with a Hold in Massachusetts.
Normally I do not have too high of an opinion on anything “Yankee” related. Notwithstanding my beloved bride of 27 years who is from Ohio.
Please don’t take offense but if for the last forty years of your life you were surrounded by a veritable plethora of folks from somewhere else like we are here in Texas who cannot wait to tell you how terrible it is here in the Lone Star State and how wonderful things were back North, you would be a little biased too. If things were so great up there how come none of you ever went back up there. For crying out loud Dallas is more like a city in Kansas now than it is Texas. But I digress.
I have been following the brave souls in Wisconsin and their brave fight to get their state back and I am praying that they are succesful one more time this next election day. IF this Republic IS to survive this election is our last best chance to recover it from the statists.
We in Wisconsin have been working as diligently since the recall election as we did before it, to ensure a couple of things: 1) Tammy Baldwin gets defeated. 2) Romney/Ryan get elected.
The latest poll I saw showed only a 2-point margin, well within the margin of error. It was still in Obama’s favor, but that can change real quick.
We will not quit working until late evening on November 5. I KNOW there’s enough fence-sitters out there to move the state red, we just gotta find them.
Bless you!
GOP now ironically begging Ron Paul supporters for help ELECTIONS 2012 OCTOBER 9, 2012 BY: JEFFREY PHELPS
http://www.examiner.com/article/gop-now-ironically-begging-ron-paul-supporters-for-help
My one quibble with the map is with Pennsylvania. In light of recent polls and assuming some momentum, I’d rate it “toss up” or (more likely) just “leans Obama.” My gut feeling is that Romney takes western PA wholly and breaks into the suburban counties around Philly, where a lot of well-off White liberals have seen their portfolios and home values hammered and who might be open to a Center-Right businessman. In other words, my gut feeling is that Romney takes PA in a close one.
Bucks and Montgomery counties (philly suburbs) are full of Romney signs, the few (white) people I know voting for Obama are doing so out of nothing more than generic party loyalty.
“He stinks, but I’m a Democrat so…” is the favored line. No passion, no enthusiasm, just lock-step vote for the party that controls their mind.
Its a “possible” win for Romney, but urban politics being what they are (read: massive voter fraud)we wont know till its over.
Fingers crossed, and check mailed.
Talked to a young man the other day who came back to Texas after working in the Pennsylvania Oil Fields for a couple of years. When asked how he thought the election would go there he said he saw no way Obama could lose, his opinion was that Pennsylvania now has WAY too many people who are only interested in how much they can get from the Government and are going to vote for the candidate who will continue to feed their fix.
He said that he hoped and I pray that he was wrong but he was pretty disgusted by his time there and the lack of work ethic by the locals. He said that practically everyone working in the oil fields there was from out of state because none of the locals wanted to work they were perfectly happy being slaves to the crumbs the government wants them to have.
The map very clearly shows that an Obama victory would mean entire regions of the country, namely the South and Central states, are governed by “foreigners” from the North and West Coastal sections. This is tantamount to occupation, given how Obama and Co. intend to “remake” the country via coercion.
I think an Obama victory might spell trouble, particularly if it’s obtained by fraud.
Trouble is coming regardless. The economic catastrophe headed our way is inevitable, and will dwarf the Great Depression. Unless it hits no later than next February or March, the MSM will gleefully blame Romney if he’s the president.
As for “foreign occupation,” the map shows with equal clarity that the Left Coast, Mid-Atlantic and New England would feel exactly the same way about a GOP administration. Like it or not, the US in its present form is ungovernable without a Soviet-style iron-fisted autocracy ensconced in DC. The only long-term alternative to such an autocracy is to dissolve the Union — peacefully if possible, though I fear that window has already closed.
It’s going to be trouble no matter who wins. If Romney wins (most likely outcome IMO) there will be rioting led by the new black panthers and friends, because we threw “their” president out. If Obama wins, he’ll take a hard turn to the left, make a play for our guns and start a civil war.
Either way, it’s going to be an interesting winter.
Note to self, buy more food, reload more ammo.
I agree there’s maybe a 33% chance of some big cities undergoing riots if Obama loses. I hope I’m wrong, but it seems like a plausible assumption.
A 33% chance that there will be lots of dead liberals? It’s just like with abortion: I’d prefer that liberals change their minds, but if they insist on killing themselves off, there’s just ot that much I can do about it except wring my hands and say “Oh my, I don’t see that working out well for you”
I would think if you wanted to say it was only 4 toss-ups, they would be Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa.
What about Nevada? Gotta think that’s in play even with Harry Reid’s goons running things.
Harry Reid and his goons only care about Harry Reid. How else could Reid be re-elected while his son loses by several points in the gubernatorial race the same day?
We see very few Obama yardsigns or bumper stickers here in Northern Nevada this year. Lots and lots of Romney signs. In Vegas, Steve Wynn is trying to persuade casino workers (union members) that an Obama re-election will lead to layoffs.
I think Romney has a shot here if he can achieve 80% Mormon voter turnout.
Sorry, guys, my calculations include something yours apparently don’t. White hot anger at Obama’s and the mainstream media’s constant race bating. It’s sad but true. Race is back. And there’s a whole lot of people who are mad as hell at the Democratic racist running of government.
Obama wins California, DC, New York and Pennsylvania. That’s it. Obama better start to pack. He’s movin’ on.
Wish that was true Rachel…but what facts back that up? Maryland is going for Romney? Rhode Island? Vermont? Delaware, Connecticut? Oregon, Washington state? Massachusetts?
C’mon it’s good to be optimistic, but that’s a wishlist, not a prediction.
Romney squeaker: The 257 above plus Ohio and Wisconsin: 285
Comfortable win: Add Iowa and Pennsylvania
Romney blowout: The entire upper midwest: Michigan and even Minnesota
“Reagan blowout:” Add one or two “Wow didn’t see that coming” states, Oregon, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, Maine:
No way Obama get less than 100 EVS: California, New York, Washington, Vermont, Hawaii, Deleware, Rhode Island
Sorry to be bursting your bubble and boy do I hope you are right, but you have to add Illinois, Maryland, Washington, NJ, and more than a couple of others.
As Yogi Berra once said, it ain’t over until it’s over. In #12, Strider mentions economic catastrophe. With 8 years of Bush and 4 years of Obama spending the country into near ruin, it would take a real superman to stave off major economic problems. The country can’t afford 4 more years of Obama. I’m not sure the country can afford 4 years of Romney either. It’s still real murky how he intends to balance the budget considering his massive tax cuts and major increase in defense spending.
#12 Walt C. that’s one of the sillier posts I’ve seen on PJM.
‘Not knowing he said it, he said it.’ >:)
The US economy used to dwarf that of the rest of the world. No more.
When, not if, the EU goes down, it will take the US and the rest
of the world with it into a 2nd Great Depression.
But wait, there’s more !
The US infrastructure is the web of mechanisms which enable our modern economy
and society. Many parts of it are worn out, and when they break under the impact of the economic collapse, the Union will separate into individual states, each
of which will drop to whatever level of civilization its remaining internal infrastructure can support.
Here in Texas, and the other solvent states, we may only lose 10-20 years of
progress; The bankrupt states will do well to halt their descent at an early
20th century level. The reform and rebuilding of the US will be “Man’s Work”:
hard, dirty, and dangerous, and will be carried out by those who survive the
initial shock, hence the need to stockpile beans and bullets. Needles to say,
those men will end up in charge of the ReUnited States of America.
“The US economy used to dwarf that of the rest of the world. No more.”
Define dwarf. And I don’t mean some small guy that you toss around. The US economy is still way larger then anyone elses;
ww.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/United-States/GDP_Share_of_World_Total_PPP/
Data is for 2010, the latest year for which there are real numbers, not projections.
US share is 19.7 % IMHO, that dwarfs everybody else. China is 13.5 %, Japan is 3rd at 5.something %, which leaves the USA larger then #’s 2 and 3 combined. The EU is counted as being larger then the USA, which is spin because the EU is not a country. If local economies are grouped, then China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan are larger then the EU. After a certain point it’s all spin. You have to ask yourself why they are throwing you a curve ball and if you want to swing or not.
I thought I heard on Rush today that Mitt took the lead in New Hampshire.
And for the record, I think Mitt is going to take Pa.
321. I’ve been predicting it for months. ME will split, 2EV will go to Romney.
Agree with ClarkM on Wisconsin. Cheeseheads infused reason and example into the case for smaller government. They lit the fire, now it’s up to the rest of us to carry the torch in our own states. A few of my favorite cheeseheads – Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Reince Priebus…
On Wisconsin, indeed.
What is the deal with NV? Republican governor, high unemployment? Even Steve Wynn – a big D supporter – blasted The Won; how can NV be solid blue?
I think our pundits here at PJM are wary of Reid’s SEIU machine in Nevada. It’s a formidable hurdle to be cleared, for sure, but the numbers in recent polls show that Nevada *should* be considered a tossup. The polls are much closer in Nevada than in Michigan or Pennsylvania.
Today I saw a poll which showed Romney finally ahead in Nevada for the first time. It could be an outlier, but it’s enough to move Nevada back into the toss-up column. Commenter Brian (in comment 30 which I noticed after I started writing my comment), evidently saw the same poll, too. You can find the link to it here:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/romney-leads-obama-in-nevada-based-on-recent-dane–associates-poll-173761381.html
“On Wisconsin, indeed.”
If I’m not mistaken, it was tough Wisconsin Men of the ‘Iron Brigade” at Gettysburg, who’s timely re-enforcement of Buford beleaguered Cavalry in the critical first day bought enough time for others to consolidate Cemetery hill…and thus buy us with their blood, a critical foundation for victory.
Hard fighting “Black Hats” they were, doing the dirty work of fighting a “losing front” for the latter success, and suffering mightily whist doing so.
Tough. Strong. Head down. Determined and unflappable.
Shut up and push on, undistracted in the face of rage and fury.
Sounds like Ryan to me.
Onward Wisconsin indeed!
We are only now starting to see polls accurately reflect likely turnout which is going to be a huge plus for Romney. Obama will not get Black turnout like last election because a lot of that record turnout was the result of a huge effort from churches. Because of his gay marriage stance he’s lost that enthusiasm. Besides not getting the turn out from Blacks he will probably not get the same percentage either, unemployment is hitting Blacks worse than any other demographic. No incumbent has ever one without getting more votes than they got the first time. Obama won’t get as many Black votes, Jewish votes, Catholic votes, women votes, youth votes, or independent votes as he did in 2008. How can he make that up? More gay votes?
@Rancher, unfortunately too many in the black community think that even MORE government is the answer, they don’t ever stop to question the premise! He’ll still get 95% of the black vote, because the black culture has been told to judge a man based on the amount of melanin in his skin and/or his embrace of socialism. Liberty and reason used to be mainstays in America, now they are (sadly) nearly ghosts. Romney is going to win big, but it will be because the guilty white vote that went to Obama in ’08 will go to Romney this round.
Some of the 14.1% unemployed Blacks won’t vote for him this time, especially some of the 28.6% unemployed young Blacks. Many evangelical Blacks are against him both for his support of gay marriage and his pro infanticide extremist abortion stance. A group of conservative black pastors are are launching a national campaign to get Blacks to rethink their support for Obama. I’m not saying he will get less than 90% but he won’t get the 95% he got in 2008. Some takers will even say he hasn’t given them enough stuff. Remember the lady who said she wouldn’t have to worry about putting gas in her car or paying rent now that Obama is president? All she got was an Obama phone.
That last part sounds like a great idea for a T-shirt:
“I VOTED FOR OBAMA AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS LOUSY PHONE”
Flashback to Michigan 2010 elections…sick of the results of failed Democrat tax-spend mentality, we overwhelmingly voted for Republicans at all levels of government. The 2012 election will be no different…our state is rebounding because of Republican policies, and I think voters will respond accordingly. This may be true in some of the other “toss-up” states as well, but could hinge on voter turnout.
I used to think talk of rioting and civil war was the language of loons, but the divider-in-chief, busily “transforming” our economic and governmental systems in “fundamental” ways, has caused me to rethink my position. The polarization of America has been fueled by Obama’s incessant “class warfare” talk, as though we have a caste system here. In his speeches, insert the word proletariat for middle class, and you see where he comes from. A lockstep, Pravda-like media which paints conservatives as racist xenophobes foments this division. Liberals have declared war on regular Americans, declaring that Constitution-loving people seeking a smaller, less intrusive federal government are “extremists”.
Almost half the country ignorantly buys the idea that surrendering their individual sovereignty to an all-encompassing central power is a good thing, and that’s scary. We need to continue funding and electing grassroots conservatives at all levels of government across America with every dollar we can send, or this great republic could fail in a big, violent way.
Mitt still has to play catch up here in Michigan, though. It looks like he may be giving the mitten a second look – Ryan was at Oakland University last week, Ann Romney is swinging through the state today, GOP super PACs are apparently returning for ad buys – but he’s been absent here for a while now. Polls are tightening, so it can definitely be won, but he has to get it going here pretty quickly.
1. Maine needs to be green, since Romney will probably win Maine CD2.
2. Nevada is a toss up. Suffolk poll had Obama up only 4% in Washoe Co. In 2008, he won Washoe by 12.5%.
3. New Hampshire and PA should be a toss up.
4. OH leans Romney, please.
I think there is some crappy polling going on in Ohio. It’s close but once you get out of the cities proper of the 3-C’s and Toledo, it is hard to find an Obama sign or supporter.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/261711-poll-romney-leads-in-florida-new-hampshire
New Hampshire: Romney 50, Obama 46.
Okay, any Pennsylvanians out there who want to take a bite?
Philly, my fair burg, is oh, heck, it’s a cesspool, and will pull out all the stops (read, dead bodies) to get Obambi reelected.
But no way do I think O is up 8 points as the Inky reported yesterday. I think it will be close and dare, I hope, Pennsylvania will go Romney?
I know for a fact there are people working to make that happen.
Despite the handle I grew up blue collar and Catholic in Pittsburgh suburbs. Lots of hard-working, CAtholic (or at least mainline Protestants), who enjoy hunting, and are not really fans of Obama’s gay marriage stance, and they dig a lot of coal in that part of the state.
I see PA as detinitely in play.
Western PA, just east of the border by 10 miles or so. Hard pressed to find any O signs here. I’ve seen just 3 driving around town, which I do quite a bit. Several, multifold, of R/R signs though. I did see my first O bumper sticker today at the discount bread store. Old white couple. I had to stare for awhile as I wondered what a 2012 Obama voter would look like.
We have R/R signs and an empty chair sitting in front of the house. I’m planning on getting an O sticker to put on the chair to make sure everybody knows what I mean. My boss came by the other day and asked what the chair was all about, and he had seen Eastwood’s rant, so . . . .
Live in a heavily Dem neighborhood, so we’re the only signs up for blocks, but NO O signs either.
Romney/Ryan 301 votes. WI and IA go GOP
The word in Pennsylvania is that Obama will win in the southeast(Philly area), Romney will win in the broad center and across the north(the T), and the toss-up is southwest PA (Pittsburgh area). Here in Allegheny County there are absolutely no Obama signs to be seen anywhere, but plenty of Romney/Ryan signs and even those Keep America Free, Fire Obama signs. We are working hard on the ground here and are very surprised to see no apparent Obama ground game. Usually Democrats steal our signs like crazy, but even that is not happening, which is very odd. I sense serious Democrat disillusionment with Obama and apparently no one wants to sport an Obama sign in their yard – even die-hard Democrats I know. And our Romney signs are staying up! (Really, that is something.)
To the root 83:
Perfect rant on the boss. Grew up in Iowa, but loved the boss back in the 70s when his music was real. It was all downhill by the 1980s. Rosalita, darkness on the edge of town, amazing rock with the original E street band. Later years he got too full of himself and too damn political. Massive hypocrite he is today.
I also lived in nJ for a few years in the 90s. Good people but though I’ve lived in 6 states I’ve never lived anywhere else that various levels of government could figure out so many ways to extract money out of your pocket. Corruption infests everything . Glad to be back in the Midwest.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/romney-leads-obama-in-nevada-based-on-recent-dane–associates-poll-173761381.html
NEVADA: Romney 49, Obama 46.
Let’s start with your map. Give Ohio, Michigan, AND Wisconsin to Obama. Flip Nevada and give Iowa and one (just one) congressional district in Maine to Romney. Final result: Romney 270, Obama 268.
That would be special!
Dear Stupid Republicans,
Since I mostly prefer you guys, please allow me to attempt to help you correct your inane stupidity.
Margin. Of. Error.
See, poll data is probabilistic. You take a random sample of likely voters, call them up, survey them, and then extrapolate to the broader population. Depending on your results and the design of the survey you have some probability that your sample survey will approach a representation of that broader population.
Now, this election season, the polls are absolute garbage, because everybody is sick of pollsters, the likely voter demographics are all screwed up because hey! first black president! and heck, nobody under the age of 30 even uses a telephone anymore (as a phone, that is.) Who talks to pollsters? Your mother/grandmother after it’s 45 minutes into happy hour and you haven’t called her in ages and the church ladies had to cancel the bingo game this week and there’s nothing good to watch on TV. That’s who talks to pollsters.
The polls are meaningless.
We know the polls are meaningless because they are never reported with the margin of error, that is, nobody ever says “We’re __% confident that the poll data is this plus or minus __%.” Why? Because if they actually told you those numbers you would be confused as to why they are bothering to tell you those numbers. If the polls were meaningful the headline would be “Pollster says model is 99% accurate in predicting election outcomes, ‘has never been wrong’”. But these people aren’t in the polling business, they are all trading bonds on Wall Street. (Or they’re advising one of the campaigns, and you don’t get to see those numbers.)
The media may not, but the pollsters themselves do report error numbers, if you look. So for example if you look up the Rasmussen polling data you see that Romney has Broken the 50% Mark in Florida! Romney is at 51% and Obama is at 47% with 2% undecided. And the margin of error for this poll is +/- 4% so…47+4 and 2 left over…Hey wait a minute, nobody has any freaking clue who is winning in Florida! Why are you even telling me this?
The polls are garbage.
Now it may sound suspiciously as if I am suggesting that Mr. Preston and PJMedia are a bunch of media hacks who are reporting a complete non-story as if it were something special. And they are! If they had anything really substantive to tell us about, they wouldn’t run these non-stories as if they were news.
But don’t disparage them, because they are our media hacks and we need to support them, and this hackishness serves a useful purpose we should applaud. Why? Because a whole lot of clueless fools are Democrat supporters, and the Democrat news media hacks are busily drawing pretty pictures in crayons for their readers and viewers which prove that Obama is winning and hey math is hard let’s not get into the details who wants a free phone? And they are counting on (i) a bunch of idiots going out and voting for Obama again because they think everybody else is doing it, and (ii) disgusted Republicans staying home because they’ve heard for weeks that it doesn’t matter so why even bother voting, pass the whisky.
Thus, you see, it is absolutely vital that OUR media hacks like Mr. Preston continue to do their job and report the garbage poll numbers which might maybe kind of show absolutely nothing except that it’s any man’s race to win and every vote counts.
Just don’t be stupid and start believing your own ad campaign. What matters in this race is not what the polls say, but that every single American who can vote and cares about saving this country from the depradations of the Obamabots gets registered and casts that vote for the guy who, come on, admit it, seems reasonably sane and that’s saying something for Presidential politics these days.
The polls are garbage.
The industry standard is that the published margin of error is a 95% confidence interval. However, you’re right that this only reflects statistical error, not any systemic error in the poll.
I talk to pollsters.
Don’t forget that one electrol vote in Maine. Romney is ahead in that district.
That takes one from Obama and gives it to Romney. So it is Obama 230, Romney 258. 12 away… or 11 to take it to the House. Can you imagine Biden being VP under Romney… oh my.
I live in Colorado and have gotten so sick of pollsters calling every day (Yes – every day) that I lie to all of them. I’m sure that polls discourage some voters from showing up. That’s totally wrong so I’m doing my part to screw up the results. Besides, it’s fun sometimes.
No. If you answer with “Attack Latinas for Romney” they tend to leave you alone after that…
Hey something finally worked. I was resorting to cuss words in five languages before, and they still kept calling.
91% non-responding means the polls are hosed. IMHO, $5.00 gallon gas is it for the Won. Playing with EV projection is the policy wonks version of masterbation. Elections are binary. Romney wins, or he doesn’t. If he doesn’t, the other guy does.
IMHO, it won’t be very close. The pundits say it will but that is so they can keep avoiding looking for a real job. Ask yourself, How many people will vote for MORE $5.00 gallon gas?
Will someone tell me how a vote in the House – which is by state, not member – would come out?