If my read is correct, fifty electoral votes remain up for grabs in just four states: Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio. Romney only needs either Ohio or Michigan to get to 270. He could also win Iowa and Wisconsin to get there. Obama needs a combination of some among those four states to win. Even winning Ohio and Michigan only gets him to 265. He needs to pull a triple play to get past 270.

Last night’s vice presidential debate isn’t likely to have changed much. President Obama has to repair the damage done during the first presidential debate plus contend with the building scandal from the Benghazi attack, while appealing to middle ground voters, among whom Romney currently and consistently leads. This race isn’t Romney’s to lose, but it could become that after the second presidential debate if Obama does not perform far better than he did during the first debate.

Update: New numbers from Rasmussen show Romney cracking the 50% mark.

Update: New numbers from Virginia show Romney leading by 7.